The December 2021 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 48 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2021 and 2022, was conducted November 12-21, 2021. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Yelena Shulyatyeva (Chair) Bloomberg, Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation, Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Kathleen Navin, CBE, IHS Markit, Dana Peterson, The Conference Board, Sara Rutledge, SRR Consulting, and Robert Rosener, Morgan Stanley, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “NABE Outlook survey panelists have ramped up their expectations for inflation significantly since September,” said NABE Vice President Julia Coronado, founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, is now expected to rise 6.0% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the September forecast of a 5.1% increase over the same period. Nearly three-fourths of respondents—71%—anticipate that the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the change in the core PCE price index, will not cool down to or below the Fed’s target of 2% year-over-year until the second half of 2023 or later.“ “Nearly six out of ten panelists anticipate the U.S. economy will reach full employment within a year,” added Survey Chair Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. Economist, Bloomberg. “Two-thirds of the panel expect wage increases will keep inflation elevated over the next three years.”
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