NABE Outlook Survey

December 2022

NABE Panelists Continue to Expect Recession but Limited Labor Market Fallout; Majority Anticipates Inflation and Interest Rates Remaining Elevated

The December 2022 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 51 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2022 and 2023, was conducted November 7-18, 2022. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Dana M. Peterson (chair), The Conference Board; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Sarah House, Wells Fargo; Yelena Maleyev, CBE, KPMG; David Bowers, Absolute Strategy Research Ltd; and Ryan Sweet, Oxford Economics, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.

SUMMARY: “NABE survey participants continue to downgrade expectations for the U.S. economy, with projections of slower economic growth, higher inflation, and a weaker labor market,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “A majority of respondents believes there is more than a 50% probability that a recession will occur in 2023.”

“The more subdued outlook coincides with materially higher expectations for interest rates at the end of this year and next,” noted Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair and chief economist, The Conference Board. “Panelists expect job growth will slow over the first three quarters of 2023 but remain positive.”