Speakers - Using Economic Statistics to Understand Business Cycles
Joe Cardinale
Air Products
Joe Cardinale is a senior economist at Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., an $8.1 billion industrial gas company serving customers in over 30 countries. In this position, he assists operating groups with pricing and contract support, market analysis and analysis of the impacts of economic conditions on business performance. He works with Duncan Meldrum, the Chief Economist, in the development of economic guidelines for the company’s operating plans. In addition to economics, Joe has spent over ten years with Air Products in their finance function, working primarily with project and cash flow analysis.
Joe earned bachelor’s degrees in economics and policy studies from Dickinson College, an MBA from the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University, and is working towards a doctorate in economics at Lehigh University.
Michael Chriszt
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Michael Chriszt is the director of International and Regional Analysis in the Latin America Research Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In addition to directing the work of the LARG, he monitors and reports on economic, financial, and political developments in foreign economies and the states of the Sixth District. He holds degrees in diplomacy and foreign affairs and history, and a master’s degree in political economy from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. He joined the bank in 1989.
Art Cresce
U.S. Census Bureau
Thomas F. Davis
Motorola, Inc.
Dr. Davis is Corporate Vice President and Chief Economist for Motorola Inc., one of the world's leading manufacturers of electronic equipment and components. Besides keeping abreast of economic and business trends, he works with the Corporation's business units to ensure that the implications of those trends for Motorola's key businesses are fully understood and incorporated into future financial and product plans. He also has responsibility for coordinating and implementing the Corporation's Long-Range Planning and Strategy processes.
A previous incarnation saw him as Senior Economist on the Marketing and Product Planning Staff at General Motors, where he was responsible for economic and vehicle sales forecasts. Dr. Davis was graduated from Villanova University with a B.A. in Economics, and received an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pittsburgh. He is active in several professional organizations, and served as President of the 3,000-member National Association for Business Economics – a position also held by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.
Robert Fry
Senior Associate Economist
DuPont
Robert Fry is Senior Associate Economist, DuPont Economist's Office, where he analyzes and forecasts the global economy and its impact on DuPont. He assists DuPont businesses with interpreting economic data and using it to forecast DuPont performance. He speaks frequently to customers, trade associations, and business teams. He is the author of Current Business Developments, a monthly newsletter.
DuPont Economist’s Office (Robert Fry and DuPont Corporate Economist Bob Shrouds) tied for first place in The Wall Street Journal’s semiannual forecasting survey (2nd half 2002), made the top 10 in USA Today’s forecasting survey (March 2004 and March 2005) and Bloomberg’s forecasting survey (October 2004), and won the prestigious Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy (November 2005).
He has a B.S. (Economics) from Ohio University, 1979; Harvard University, A.M. (Economics), 1981, Ph.D. (Economics), 1985.
He is a past chapter president of the Wilmington, DE chapter of the National Association for Business Economics.
Maurine Haver
President
Haver Analytics
Maurine is President and founder of Haver Analytics Inc., an economic consulting and information services company. Prior to starting Haver Analytics in 1978, she was an economist in the economic forecasting group of General Electric in New York, a member of the International Staff of Companie Bull General Electric in Paris and a consultant in the Foreign Currency Exposure Management Group of the Chase Manhattan Bank in London.
Maurine served as President of the National Association of Business Economists (1994-95) and now chairs the NABE campaign for Quality Economic Data that she initiated during her year as president. In her role as Chair of the NABE Statistics Committee, she testifies before Congress on statistical issues, conducts quarterly meetings which bring together producers and users of federal statistics and organizes seminars to help users better understand the statistics available from government and private sources.
Maurine chairs the Business Research Advisory Council of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is a member of the Advisory Committee of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. She has served as secretary of the Forecasters Club of New York since 1992. She is a past president of the New York Association for Business Economics (1989-90), the Downtown Economists Club (1993-94) and the Money Marketeers of New York University (1998-99). She chaired the board of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) during 2001-2003. She currently serves on the board of Mutual of America and is a member of the American Economic Association, the American Statistical Association and the National Economists Club.
Maurine holds a B.S. in Economics and Mathematics from Michigan State University, an M.B.A. from the Stern School of New York University and completed her oral exam for a PhD in International Economics at NYU.
Ben Herzon
Macroeconomic Advisers
Ben joined Macroeconomic Advisers in June 1998 as a 'Mr.' and was upgraded to a 'Dr.' in May 1999 when he was awarded a Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in St. Louis. Ben's primary responsibilities at Macroeconomic Advisers involve utilizing monthly data to update MA's current-quarter forecast. This involves research into the construction of the National Accounts and modeling of interactions among monthly data series. Ben is a member of the National Association of Business Economics and a former member of the renowned rock group Lunker Buzz. Prior to his current stint with applied macroeconomics, Ben traveled the country in a Ford Econoline 150 with the band playing both known and unknown clubs for unconscionably low sums of money.
Andrew Hodge
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Andrew is responsible for the development and improvement of profits reporting at the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and liaison with user groups. He also acts as senior advisor on the overall US economic NIPA accounts.
Prior experience includes Group Managing Director, Global Insight, in charge of the US forecast, Bank Brussels Lambert, VP, Economist and Strategist, doing global economics/market strategy, including US and G-7 central bank watching , and Bankers Trust, VP and Economist, where responsibilities included Europe/Mideast/Africa and foreign exchange. Before joining Bankers Trust, Andrew held senior positions in economics with W.R. Grace, J.P. Morgan, and the US Treasury. The latter included service at the US Embassy, Paris, the Foreign Exchange Dept. and staff work preparing for the Smithsonian Agreement. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Michigan and an M.A. in Economics from George Washington University
Offices and activities include Money Marketeers of NY, past governor, International Economists of NY, Past President, and NABE. Regular contributor to CNBC, CNN, WSJ, Financial Times, Le Monde, and other media. He has written extensively on corporate profits, US macroeconomic forecasting, venture capital, global central banking, emerging market country risk, the international monetary system and foreign exchange markets
Stuart Hoffman
Chief Economist
PNC Financial Services Group
Stuart G. Hoffman is senior vice president and chief economist for The PNC Financial Services Group and serves as the principal spokesperson on all economic issues for PNC. Recently, Hoffman was named by BusinessWeek as the most accurate economic and interest rate forecaster of 2004. In addition, he has been recognized as the second most accurate forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics and in The Wall Street Journal’s economic survey covering the 1988 to 2002 period.
Hoffman joined PNC in 1980 after a six-year tenure with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He became vice president and senior economist for PNC in 1987 and was elected senior vice president and chief economist in 1991.
Hoffman is frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Barron’s, BusinessWeek and USA Today. He is a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg TV, The Wall Street Journal Radio Report and CNN News Radio. He is regularly interviewed by the Associated Press and Reuter’s news wire services. He is often quoted in regional media such as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Philadelphia Inquirer.
In addition, Hoffman has regularly participated in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium, where he discusses key economic issues with Chairman Alan Greenspan and other global monetary policymakers.
Hoffman is a Past President and a member of the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He also serves on the Board of Directors of the Pennsylvania Partnership for Economic Education and the Economic Club of Pittsburgh--the local chapter of NABE. He is the past chairman of the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee that met semi-annually with Chairman Greenspan and other Federal Reserve Board Governors.
Hoffman is a 1971 graduate of Pennsylvania State University. He received a master's degree in 1973 and a doctorate degree in economics in 1975, both from the University of Cincinnati, where he was a Charles Phelps Taft Memorial Fellow. In 2004, the University of Cincinnati honored him as a Distinguished Alumni.
Harry Homan
Fluor Corporation
Harry Homan is currently Senior Director, Strategic Development, Fluor Corporation.
Fluor is one of the world’s largest publicly owned engineering, procurement, construction and maintenance organization, with annual revenues of approximately $10 billion.
Harry leads a team which identifies opportunities arising from changes in the external environment; looks at how to enhance the company’s overall competitive position; and coordinates the company’s strategic planning process. He also helps the business units test the robustness of their plans and develop strategic options, appraises enterprise risk and advises the corporation on portfolio issues.
Harry has a BS in chemical engineering from the University of Illinois and an MBA from the University of Southern California. His responsibilities at Fluor have included economic forecasting, marketing research and planning, technology development, finance & administration, business & competitor intelligence and strategic planning. Prior to joining Fluor he spent two years with DuPont in product and process development.
Harry is currently chairman of NABE’s Corporate Planning Roundtable. He is active in a variety of professional associations including the National Business Economic Issues Council and Association for Strategic Planning, and previously served on the Conference Board Association of Strategic Planning Executives and as chairman of the Southern California section of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
Peter Jaquette
Weyerhaeuser
Kurt Karl
Swiss Re
Kurt E. Karl is head of Swiss Re’s Economic Research and Consulting, North America. As such, Dr. Karl has responsibility for the North American part of Swiss Re’s “sigma” insurance industry research. In addition, he supports Swiss Re’s strategic planning and provides internal consulting on products and economic risks. Finally, he supplies insights and forecasts on the U.S. and global economies to Swiss Re and Conning Asset Management for use in a variety of corporate decisions, including asset management. He is an expert on the U.S. and global economies with extensive experience and knowledge of foreign markets and has lived and worked in Europe, Africa and Asia. Dr. Karl is a contributor to many forecasting surveys, including those of the Wall Street Journal, Blue Chips, Bloomberg and Reuters. He is widely quoted in the financial press. Prior to joining Swiss Re, Dr. Karl was chief international economist at WEFA, Inc., an economic forecasting firm located near Philadelphia. He has a B.A. from the University of Oregon, a M.Sc. from the London School of Economics and a Ph.D. from Princeton University.
Jack Kleinhenz
Kleinhenz and Associates
Jack Kleinhenz. Ph.D. is CEO of Kleinhenz & Associates and is Regional Economist and Lecturer at Weatherhead School of Management. Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc., a business and economic consulting firm based in Cleveland, Ohio, specializes in industry studies, regional economics, labor market issues strategic planning and business plan development.
Jack has over 25 years of broad-based experience working with Fortune 500 companies, financial service companies, regulators, planners, universities, airports, manufacturers, chambers of commerce, trade associations, non-profit organizations and state and local government agencies. He is known for translating economics and information into clear explanations and action. Jack speaks on business and regional economic issues and regularly called upon for his expertise by the local and national media. Formerly with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Jack recently served as chief economist and consultant to the Greater Cleveland Growth Association, the nation’s largest chamber of commerce. He teaches economics as a faculty member of CASE’s Weatherhead School of Management.
A graduate of John Carroll University, Jack earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Notre Dame. In 1995, Jack was named one of John Carroll University’s Top 50 School of Business Graduates. Previous faculty appointments include the University of Notre Dame and John Carroll University.
Jack is a member of the Governor of Ohio’s Council of Economic Advisors and the Northeast Ohio Council of Economic Policy Advisors, trustee of Notre Dame College, and a corporate director for Beverage Distributors, Inc, Cleveland, Ohio. A former board member of National Association for Business Economists (NABE), he currently chairs NABE’s education foundation and serves as a member of NABE’s statistics committee that meets regularly with federal policymakers and statistical agencies. Jack is also a contributing economic forecaster to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook Panel and the NABE outlook and policy survey. Contact Jack at 216 321-9522 or jack@kleinhenzassociates.com
Robert Kleinhenz
California Association of Realtors
Robert Kleinhenz is the Deputy Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORSâ, a statewide trade organization of real estate professionals with 185,000 members. Robert manages C.A.R.’s research and economics department, which gathers and publishes information on the California housing market, and conducts survey research of consumers and C.A.R. members. He is a frequent contributor to media coverage on the housing market and economy.
Dr. Kleinhenz has over twenty years of experience in the field of Regional Economics. He holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Michigan, a Master’s degree and a Doctorate from the University of Southern California, all in Economics. Prior to working at C.A.R, he taught Economics for over 15 years, most recently at California State University, Fullerton. He has spoken to local, state, and national audiences and is a frequent contributor to media coverage on the housing market and economy.
Aneta Lukasik
U.S. Census Bureau
Aneta Lukasik, is a section chief over Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS) and Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) in the Retail Indicators Branch (RIB) at the U.S. Census Bureau. She is responsible for reviewing major retail industries such as motor vehicle and parts dealers, general merchandise stores, food services, and health and personal care stores. Before joining RIB, Aneta worked in the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) branch, also a leading economic indicator. She was responsible for the in-depth analysis of the transportation equipment industry as well as the primary metals industry.
Aneta has a B.A. in mathematics and economics from Rutgers University.
Rosemary Marcuss
Deputy Director
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Rosemary Marcuss is the Deputy Director of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the President of NABE. She was a member of the Board of Directors of NABE from 2000 to 2003.
From 1983 to 1998, she was the Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), where she was responsible for Congressional tax receipts forecasts and tax policy analysis. She has also been: Senior Manager and Economist, Data Resources, Inc.; Assistant to the President, American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees; junior staff member, Council of Economic Advisers; Director, National Tax Association; Member: District of Columbia Tax Revision Commission.
She has a Ph.D. University of Maryland, where she had a National Science Foundation Fellowship.
Susan Hume McIntosh
Board of Governors,
Federal Resereve System
Susan Hume McIntosh is a senior economist with the Flow of Funds Section of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She began working at the Federal Reserve in 1972 and has spent most of her career working on the flow of funds accounts. From 1979-1985 she was the assistant to Governor Charles Partee at the Federal Reserve.
She currently is responsible for coordinating the compilation of the flow of funds accounts each quarter and works on the financial forecast for the FOMC. Her main sectoral responsibility has been commercial banks and thrifts, but she is involved in all structural changes and major data revisions in the flow of funds account. She has been vice chairman of the OECD committee on financial statistics for three years. She has worked on several IMF projects, including the current pilot project on financial soundness indicators. She is working with BEA on a joint project on “Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts for the United States” that will be release in the fall of 2006.
Ms. McIntosh received her MBA in finance and investments from The George Washington University and her BA from the College of William and Mary.
Robert T. McGee
Chief Economist
United States Trust Company NA
Tim McGee is Chief Economist at U.S. Trust. He is responsible for the economic forecast and other economic research with a focus on investment strategy. In addition, he serves on the Finance and Investment Strategy Committees.
Prior to joining U.S. Trust, Mr. McGee was a strategist and economist with UFJ and Tokai Banks. He is well known in Japan for his regular market column in the Nikkei Financial Daily. In 2000, Business Week magazine recognized him for making the most accurate forecast in its annual survey of economists. More recently, both Bloomberg and USA Today recognized him for outstanding forecasting accuracy. He has appeared on CNBC, Reuters, and Bloomberg TV and has often been quoted in various publications like the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
Mr. McGee began his career in the academic world teaching at Florida State University and New York University. He also spent three years at the New York Federal Reserve Bank and one year as a fellow at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Studies. He has published numerous articles in academic journals.
Tim received his B.S. from the Georgia Institute of Technology and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Wisconsin. Some of his memberships include the American Economic Association, the National Association of Business Economics, The Forecasters Club of New York and the Money Marketeers. He currently serves as Chairman of the American Banker Association’s Economic Advisory Committee. In that capacity he will also serve on the ABA Government Relations Committee. Recently, he joined the New York City Economic Advisory Panel.
Duncan Meldrum
Chief Economist
Air Products
Duncan Meldrum is the Chief Economist for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., an $8.1 billion industrial gas company serving customers in over 30 countries. As Chief Economist, he assesses the impact of the economic environment on the company’s performance for the executive management team and develops global economic assumptions for the company’s operating plans. He provides operating groups with pricing assistance, contract support and market analyses. He also serves as the company’s economics spokesperson.
He received a B.S. degree from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1973, a M.S. degree in Operations Research from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in 1974, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Lehigh University in 1992. He is a member of the Advisory Committee to the U.S. Census Bureau. He serves as a director on the boards of the APCI Federal Credit Union and the nonprofit Parkette National Gymnastics Center. He is a past president of the National Association for Business Economics. His other professional associations include the Conference of Business Economists, the National Business Economic Issues Council, and the American Economics Association.
Gregory Miller
SunTrust Bank
Gregory Miller is Vice President and Chief Economist with SunTrust Bank, Inc. He completed his undergraduate and graduate Economics degrees at Florida State University and has been a practicing economist, forecaster, and teacher for over 20 years.
Prior to joining SunTrust, Mr. Miller was on the faculty of the College of Business Administration at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Mr. Miller now serves on the USF Business College Board of Advisors.
Before joining USF, Mr. Miller served two Florida Governors in the Florida State Economist's Office in Tallahassee.
As SunTrust Banks’ Chief Economist, Mr. Miller's responsibilities include forecasting the national economy, particularly as it affects interest rates. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Wealth Management and Corporate Investment Banking groups. Mr. Miller also evaluates markets for, and represents SunTrust in, regulatory matters concerning potential mergers and acquisitions.
In addition to his regular SunTrust duties, Mr. Miller serves on the Georgia Governor’s Counsel of Economic Advisors and the Atlanta Mayor’s Counsel of Economic Advisors.
He is Past-Chair of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association, Past President and Board Member of the Atlanta Economics Club and was President and Founding Director of the Atlanta Economics Foundation.
Norman Morin
Senior Economist
Federal Reserve Board
Norman Morin joined the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board in 1997, where he is a senior economist in its Industrial Output Section. His primary responsibilities include producing the published estimates of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization and analyzing and forecasting developments in the industrial sector. His research interests include nonstationary and nonlinear time series econometrics.
He received his undergraduate degree in mathematics from the University of Michigan and his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, San Diego.
John Silvia
Chief Economist
Wachovia Bank N.A.
Dr. John Silvia joined Wachovia in February 2002 as chief economist for the Bank. Previously, John worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Prior to that, he was chief economist of Kemper Funds and managing director of Scudder Kemper Investments, Inc. Before joining Kemper Funds, John worked for Harris Bank and taught economics at Indiana University.
John holds a B.A. and a Ph.D. degree in economics from Northeastern University in Boston and has a Master’s degree in economics from Brown University in Providence, RI.
John serves as a member of the Blue Chip Panel of Economic Forecasters and also serves on an informal advisory group for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee at the American Bankers Association and is President of the Charlotte Economics Club. In the past, John has served on economic advisory committees to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Public Securities Association.
In addition, John is Treasurer and a member of the Board of Directors for The Second Harvest Food Bank of Metrolina, a Charlotte civic association. He is also a member of the Business Advisory Committee for the City of Charlotte and he serves on the President’s Council for Charlotte’s Central Piedmont Community College.
Shelly Smith
Economist
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Shelly Smith is an economist with the National Income and Wealth Division (NIWD) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC). She began working at BEA in May of 1997. At BEA, she serves as a member of the team responsible for the review and analysis of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. Prior to joining NIWD, Ms. Smith was an economist with the Federal Branch of BEA’s Government Division where she developed estimates of several components of the government accounts, including Federal Government spending on research and development and the current surplus of Federal Government enterprises.
Ms. Smith received her Masters Degree in Applied Economics from the Johns Hopkins University, and her Bachelor’s Degree in International Studies and in Economics from Frostburg State University in western Maryland.
Charles Steindel
Senior Vice President
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Charles Steindel is a Senior Vice President in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function. He oversees the Group's analysis and forecasts of U.S. economic conditions. His research interests include consumer spending and saving and productivity growth. He has served as president of the Money Marketeers of New York University and the Forecasters Club of New York. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University and his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
His fields of interest include: Chain weighting measuring gdp, Consumer behavior, Cycle capital spending balance sheet, Growth and Productivity, Inflation estimates productivity growth, Investment, Manufacturing, Private saving, Productivity growth, Saving, Saving economic growth, Stock market consumption, Tax rebate.
Evelina Tainer
Washington State Employment Security Department
Evelina Tainer is Chief Economist of the Labor Market and Economic Analysis branch of the Washington State Employment Security Department, which collects, analyses and distributes the full range of labor markets information for Washington State. She has been in this position since May 2006.
Before entering state service, Evelina Tainer was chief economist for California-based company Econoday, Inc, for eight years, where she provided analysis and education regarding the economy’s relationship to investment behavior. Previously, Evelina was responsible for directing short term forecasting analysis for a U.S. bank and the brokerage arm of an international bank in Chicago. She was the primary architect of the Bankers Guide to Economic Indicators that was instituted at the Federal Reserve Board’s Banking School in the 1990s. She has also taught economics and finance at several Chicago-area universities and is currently an adjunct lecturer at the University of Illinois at Chicago through its online MBA program.
Evelina Tainer authored Using Economic Indicators to Improve Investment Analysis, Third Edition (2006, John Wiley). The second edition also has a Chinese translation.
Evelina was on the Board of Directors for the National Association for Business Economics from 1993 to 1996. She chaired the committee for the Annual Meeting held in New Orleans in 1997 and the Washington DC Policy Seminar in 1995 and was the first chair of the NABE Financial Roundtable. She is currently on the Editorial Board of Business Economics.
In 2004, Evelina was inducted into the Alumni Leadership Academy at the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Business Administration.
She has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago where she also received her undergraduate degree.
