Program: Using Economic Statistics to Understand Business Cycles
Sunday, April 22, 2007
OPTIONAL SKILLS SESSIONS
1:00-2:00 PM
Economic Statistics from the U.S. Government and Industry Sources
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics
2:15-3:15 PM
Price Index Number Construction and Issues
Duncan Meldrum, Air Products
3:15-3:45PM
Coffee Break
3:45-5:00 PM
Basic Cycle Measurement Concepts and Applications
Tom Davis, Motorola
5:00-6:30 PM
WELCOME RECEPTION
Monday, April 23, 2007
7:00-8:00 AM
Continental Breakfast
8:00-9:00 AM
OPENING SESSION
Overview of the NBER Cycle Dating Process
9:10-10:10 AM
Gross Domestic Product and the National Accounts
Rosemary Marcuss, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Data Producer:
Shelly Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Case Studies:
Ben Herzon, Macroeconomic Advisers
10:10-10:30 AM
Coffee Break
10:30 AM-12 Noon
Concurrent Sessions I
A. CYCLE ANALYSIS TRACK
Measuring Personal Income
Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz and Associates, moderator
Data Producer:
Rosemary Marcuss, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Case Studies:
John Silvia, Wachovia Bank
B. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS TRACK
Housing Data
Peter Jaquette, Weyerhaeuser, moderator
Data Producer:
Art Cresce, U.S. Census Bureau
Case Studies:
Peter Jaquette, Weyerhaeuser
Robert Kleinhenz, California Association of Realtors
12:00-1:30 PM
Luncheon
Economic Cycles and Business Planning
Gregory Miller, SunTrust Bank
1:30-3:00 PM
Concurrent Sessions II
A. CYCLE ANALYSIS TRACK
U.S. Employment Statistics
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics, moderator
Data Producer:
Evelina Tainer, Washington State Employment Security Department
Case Studies:
Ben Herzon, Macroeconomic Advisers
Michael Chriszt, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
B. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS TRACK
Flow of Funds
Data Producer:
Susan Hume McIntosh, Federal Reserve Board
Case Studies:
Robert T. McGee, United States Trust Company N.A.
3-3:30 PM
Coffee Break
3:30-5 PM
Concurrent Sessions III
A. CYCLE ANALYSIS TRACK
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Harry Homan, Fluor Corporation, moderator
Data Producer:
Norman Morin, Federal Reserve Board
Case Studies:
Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Peter Jaquette, Weyerhaeuser
Robert Fry, Dupont
B. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS TRACK
Consumer and Producer Price Indexes
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics
Data Producers:
Duncan Meldrum, Air Products
Case Studies:
Joe Cardinale, Air Products
5:15-7 PM
Buffet Dinner
Discussion topics will be assigned to each dinner table.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
7:30-8:30 AM
Continental Breakfast
8:30 AM-10 AM
Concurrent Sessions IV
A. CYCLE ANALYSIS TRACK
Sales of Manufacturers and Retailers
Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz and Associates, moderator
Data Producer:
Aneta Lukasik, U.S. Census Bureau
Case Studies:
Duncan Meldrum, Air Products
B. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS TRACK
Corporate Profits
Rosemary Marcuss, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Data Producer:
Andrew Hodge, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Case Studies:
Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services Group
10:00-10:30 AM
Coffee Break
10:30 AM-12 Noon
CYCLE ANALYSIS TRACK
How to Build Your Own Cycle Indicator
Peter Jaquette, Weyerhaeuser, moderator
Kurt Karl, Swiss Re
12 Noon
Adjourn
