Events - Real Estate/Construction Roundtable
Commercial Real Estate: On the Mend or More Extend-and-Pretend
Thursday, July 15
11:00 AM (EDT)
Speakers:
Sara Rutledge, Invesco Real Estate, moderator
Robert Bach, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of Grubb & Ellis slides PDF
Patrick Newport, Director of Long-Term Forecasting in the US Macroeconomics Group of IHS Global Insight slides PDF
The economic recovery is underway with three consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth and the labor market appears to have turned a corner with monthly gains every month this year. However, commercial real estate fundamentals typically lag the economic recovery and headwinds remain from the credit markets, although diminished, and from shadow space that has yet to hit the market. Given these mixed signals, where are commercial real estate fundamentals today and what is the outlook for recovery?
On July 15, these industry experts will share their perspectives on these and other fundamental conditions in commercial real estate:
- Are the challenges facing this sector more financing or demand related?
- Has the willingness of lenders to extend and restructure loans helped to stabilize the sector or simply pushed the refinancing problem into the future?
- Will demand patterns change coming out this recession?
- Will the lending environment constrain new development? Or will obsolescence drive construction ahead of expectations?
- How do these supply and demand conditions differ across regions?
- What is the outlook for and potential impact of federal, state, and local policy changes, including the carried interest tax increase?
Click here to dowload the podcast.
Speaker Bios:
Bob Bach, as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Bob Bach prepares Grubb & Ellis’ national market publications covering the office, industrial, retail and investment markets. Bob oversees the preparation of approximately 90 Metro Trends reports covering quarterly market conditions in metropolitan office and industrial markets across the U.S. He works with research managers in the local offices of Grubb & Ellis to ensure their data are accurate. Additionally, Bob works with Grubb & Ellis clients as needed to complete specialized consulting assignments. He is a frequent speaker at national professional conferences. Bob has 30 years of professional experience in real estate market research, consulting and city planning. He has prepared or overseen the preparation of market feasibility studies for proposed development projects, ranging in scope from a 16,000 square-foot retail center to an 800-acre mixed use development.
Patrick Newport, is the Director of Long-Term Forecasting for IHS Global Insight's Macroeconomic Service. Mr. Newport is also responsible for IHS Global Insight's U.S. investment and housing forecasts. Prior to joining IHS Global Insight (then called DRI) in 1998, Newport was a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State, and an economist with the Washington State Department of Revenue. He has a PhD in economics from Harvard University and a MA and BA in economics from Louisiana State University.
"Homeowner Helper or HAMPer: An Assessment of Government Loss Mitigation Programs"
Thursday, May 13
2:00 PM (EDT)
Speakers:
Dr. Jesse Abraham, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, moderator
Dr. Larry Cordell, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Dr. Paul Willen, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Many new federal government programs have been created over the past two years to minimize the number of home foreclosures resulting from sharply falling house prices and deteriorating economic conditions at a time of high levels of borrower housing leverage nationwide. That programs are constantly changing reflects the government’s struggle to find a design that achieves its objectives while prudently balancing expenditures, political fallout and moral hazard.
On May 13, two top Federal Reserve housing analysts will provide a succinct explanation of:
- what these programs are (now);
- how/why they are designed as they are to manage mortgage servicer and borrower behaviors;
- an assessment of how successful they have been to date; and
- offer informed conjectures about future effectiveness and possible further program changes.
This teleconference is available for purchase as a podcast by NABE members. Later, it will be available for free download by NABE members.
Previous Teleconfences:
"Digging into Construction Data"
Thursday, April 8, 2010
11:00 AM (EDT)
Speakers:
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, moderator slides
Jeffrey Crawford, Bureau of Economic Analysis slides
Michael Davis, U.S. Census Bureau slides
Construction spending topped $900 billion in 2009. Investment in residential, private nonresidential, and public structures are important components of GDP. Learn (more) about how these data are put together, what to watch out for in using them, and what changes are in store. Presenters: Michael Davis, Census Bureau Construction Statistics Division; Jeffrey Crawford, section chief for private fixed investment at the Bureau of Economic Analysis; Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America.
Registration is free for RE/CRT members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
To purchase this podcast, contact the NABE office at (202) 463-6223.
"Getting Past the Noise: Housing Fundamentals in 2010"
January 21, 2010
11:00 AM (EST)
Speakers:
Jesse Abraham, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, moderator
Dr. Celia Chen, Moody’s Economy.com slides
Dr. Robert Young, Citigroup Global Markets slides
Monthly housing indicators are up one month and down the next; often that signals a cyclical turning point. But with market conditions so extreme compared to historical experience, many of these indicators contain a lot more noise than information.
On January 21, two widely followed observers of housing market trends will share their perspectives on these and other fundamental conditions in the housing market:
- By some measures house prices have been rising since the summer; then why aren’t more people buying homes and originators willing to accept more credit risk?
- HAMP has gotten off to a slow start, clogging foreclosure pipelines; what ultimate resolution is likely for the current and growing delinquent pool of borrowers?
- Housing starts are picking up, as are foreclosure sales; what’s the current demand/supply balance for owner-occupied homes?
- The extent of housing problems and readiness for recovery varies by region; which areas will be leaders and which laggards in the coming months?
This teleconference is available for purchase as a downloadable podcast. After 30 days, it will become a free download for NABE members only.
"The Problem in Nonresidential Real Estate:
How Big, How Bad, How Soon?"
Thursday, December 3, 2009
11:00 AM EST
Moderator:
Sara Rutledge, Invesco
Speakers:
Sam Chandan, Real Estate Econometrics Slides
Doug Poutasse, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries Slides
Summary:
The valuation declines that have laid waste to the housing market have also impacted commercial real estate with values reported to NCREIF down 25% from the peak through 2Q 2009. As with the housing market, there is weakness in demand for commercial space bringing occupancy down across property types to lows not seen since early in the decade. Although supply is less of an issue this time, the concentration of construction activity in a few markets will add to the overhang of space created by the recession. Property owners that need to roll-over their balloon debt are faced with the loss of securitization financing and tightened standards among the commercial banks that have been their stalwart investors. Is this slow-motion train wreck large enough to warrant a TALF II financing program or generate the second-leg down in a W-shaped recession?
This podcast is available as a free download on the NABE Podcast page or on iTunes