Real Estate/Construction Roundtable Events
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The Recovering Construction Market:
Is the recovery sustainable, how quick can we return to normal, what will be the hurdles?
Thursday, March 28
Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, moderator
David Crowe, SVP-Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders
Bernie Markstein, U.S. Chief Economist, Reed Construction Data
Within the housing market, will the multifamily sector continue to be the star of the show or will single-family construction and sales begin to dominate? And will foreclosures and short sales pull the single-family market backwards?
Commercial construction experienced a turnaround in 2012, but what lies ahead? Which regional areas can expect growth and which may be weaker?
The Roundtable features two experts on construction industry trends who will share their views and concerns about the recovery in construction for the coming year.
Registration is FREE for NABE members, $20 for others
“’What Are the Data Telling Us?’—The Economics of Green Buildings”
Thursday, June 28 11:00am ET
Mychele R. Lord, LORD Green Real Estate Strategies, moderator Marc Heisterkamp, Director of Strategic Accounts, U.S. Green Building Council Nils Kok, Co-Founder, GRESB Norm Miller, University of San Diego, author of Does Green Pay Off?
Real estate veteran and pioneer sustainability consultant, Mychele Lord, will moderate this international panel of experts in the economics of green buildings. Norm Miller, in collaboration with CoStar, is the 2008 author of "Does Green Pay Off?", one of the first papers on the value proposition of ENERGY STAR-labeled and LEED-certified buildings. How has his value proposition played out in the marketplace? The co-founder of GRESB, Nils Kok, is committed to making reporting on economic, environmental and social performance in the global real estate sector standard practice—within three years. The GRESB survey is collecting metrics on the managed portfolios of more than 350 real estate fund managers. Why is he doing this? And, what is he learning from the data? Overseeing one billion square feet of LEED registrations by large companies, Marc Heisterkamp is the Director of Strategic Accounts for the commercial real estate and financial services sectors at the U.S. Green Building Council. What are these LEED registrations telling us?
Registration is free for NABE members and the public.
Apartments: The Bright Spot in the Housing Market
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Martha Peyton, Managing Director, Head of Global Real Estate Strategy & Research, TIAA-CREF, moderator
Ron Witten, President, Witten Advisors LLC slide presentation
James Woodwell, Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research, MBA slide presentation
Rental apartments have been the best performing real estate investment class and the lone bright spot in the U.S. housing market. The sector has experienced the broadest recovery across markets with occupancy rising steadily over the past two years on strong tenant demand and limited new construction. As a result, concessions have dwindled and rents are rising. Naturally, the sector’s strength has attracted investors to apartments and easier access to debt combined with historically low interest rates has pushed cap rates down considerably. What factors are driving rental demand? How much further can rents rise? How quickly will construction respond? Will investors continue to flock to the sector?
On March 20, two apartment market researchers will offer their perspectives on trends to date and the outlook for the strongest housing segment.
Registration is free for members of the NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable and KnowledgeLINK members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
Click here to download the podcast.
“Expanding the PPI: Aggregating Price Changes for Services and Construction”
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics, moderator
Jonathan Weinhagen, Economist - Producer Price Index, Buerau of Labor Statistics
With the release of January 2011 data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced an Experimental Aggregation system. This Experimental Aggregation system takes advantage of PPI’s expansion of coverage over the last twenty years to include portions of the services and construction sectors by combining prices indexes for those sectors with the currently highlighted goods sector indexes. This new system is a model that greatly expands PPI coverage of the United States economy beyond that of the current Stage of Processing System. This seminar will present the new PPI experimental aggregation system and compare and contrast indexes from the new system to already existing measures of inflation.
Jonathan Weinhagen is an economist in the Section of Index Methods at the Producer Price Index. His work includes developing new inflation measures for the PPI and examining inflation transmission from earlier stage commodities to consumer goods. Jonathan has a PhD in economics from George Mason University.
Registration is free for members of the RE/CRT and KnowledgeLINK members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
The podcast of this event is now available. Click here to download.
Long-Term and Near-Term Home Prices
Thursday, August 11
Candice Flor Hynek, Senior Research Analyst, Milken Institute, moderator
John Burns , CEO, John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Celia Chen, Senior Director, Housing Economics, Moody's Analytics slides
What is the outlook for housing prices? There is talk of shadow inventory depressing prices (banks sitting on inventory and homeowners stuck in place by current low prices). At one point this year, Sacramento had an actual inventory of 3-4 months in listings, but experts suspected that with the shadow inventory, it was actually 16 months. Panelists may also speak about apartment ownership demand or how demand for rentals may be depressing home prices.
Longer-term, some experts predict a boomer led selling trend that will depress prices, since replacement buyers (including many minorities) do not have adequate resources and credit may remain tight for years. How will the preference for people to age in place affect prices?
Registration is free for members of the RE/C Roundtable, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
Click here to register.
Senior Director, Housing Economics
Celia Chen is a senior director of the Moody's Analytics research staff, specializing in housing economics. Celia manages the Moody's Analytics regional house price forecast models, develops proprietary housing market indicators, and writes extensively about housing issues. Based in the West Chester PA office, Dr. Chen also edits Précis State and has participated in numerous consulting projects, including econometric modeling of regional house price forecasts, consumer lending, and mortgage lending.
Celia speaks regularly at Moody's client conferences and has provided economic commentary on Wall Street Radio, Bloomberg and CNBC. Celia completed her Ph.D. at the University of Pennsylvania, with a concentration in econometrics and international finance. She holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Barnard College.
John Burns Real Estate Consulting
John Burns and his team of consultants and analysts primarily do two things: 1. Subscription Research: They help executives stay several steps ahead of the competition by knowing what is going on in the market, and what is likely to happen next, and 2. Customized Consulting: They help executives make informed strategic decisions on major acquisitions, community design, and strategy. Many of the most respected companies in the housing and investment industries have John and his team on retainer and hire them for personalized consulting studies. John has degrees from Stanford and UCLA. He started his career as a CPA and, for the last 22 years, has been consulting with executives on all kinds of strategic real estate decisions. More than 28,000 industry executives read his free e-mail newsletters, more than 2,000 executives participate in his monthly industry surveys, and he is regularly featured in the media, including CNBC, Business Week, and The Wall Street Journal.
Have You Refinanced Yet? A Look at Single-Family Refinance Data
Thursday March 24, 2011
2:00 PM (Eastern)
Jane Dokko, Federal Reserve Board, moderator
Michael Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association slides
Patrick Lawler, Federal Housing Finance Agency slides
Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac slides
Refinance accounted for about 80 percent of single-family loan activity in the final months of 2010, as fixed-rate mortgage rates drifted to levels last seen in the 1950s. The Roundtable will present and discuss several alternative data sources that are readily available on single-family refinance activity
- The Refinance indexes in MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
- The GSE data reported in FHFA’s Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report, including Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) volume
- The loan characteristics released in Freddie Mac’s Refinancing Activity Reports
Panelists will offer views on the outlook for the refinance market for 2011.
Registration is free for RE/CRT and KnowledgeLINK members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
Click here to purchase the podcast.
The Status and Prospects for Housing in the Bellwether States of California and Florida
September 30, 2010
11:00 AM (Eastern)
Jesse Abraham, Vice President, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, moderator
Mark Vitner, Vice President, Wells Fargo Economics
Robert Kleinhenz, Deputy Chief Economist, California Association of Realtors
Following 10 years of exceptional growth, house prices nationally peaked in mid-2006 and have since fallen by 20%. Prices declined in most states, but the hardest hit have been the so-called SAND states of Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada, with statewide peak-to-trough declines at excess of 40%.
Even then, Federal government initiatives such as Congress’ Homebuyer Tax Credit, the Treasury’s HAMP program and the Fed’s low interest rates and purchase of $1.25 Trillion of Residential MBS have likely mitigated the depth of the price adjustment. This cascade of programs, however, makes it particularly challenging to interpret market indicators like foreclosure rates, sales rates, vacancy rates and especially price indices.
On September 30 two top housing market analysts will provide their interpretation of market conditions and the prospects for improvement in the critically important states of California and Florida.
Click here to register.
Commercial Real Estate: On the Mend or More Extend-and-Pretend
Thursday, July 15
Sara Rutledge, Invesco Real Estate, moderator
Robert Bach, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of Grubb & Ellis slides PDF
Patrick Newport, Director of Long-Term Forecasting in the US Macroeconomics Group of IHS Global Insight slides PDF
The economic recovery is underway with three consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth and the labor market appears to have turned a corner with monthly gains every month this year. However, commercial real estate fundamentals typically lag the economic recovery and headwinds remain from the credit markets, although diminished, and from shadow space that has yet to hit the market. Given these mixed signals, where are commercial real estate fundamentals today and what is the outlook for recovery?
On July 15, these industry experts will share their perspectives on these and other fundamental conditions in commercial real estate:
- Are the challenges facing this sector more financing or demand related?
- Has the willingness of lenders to extend and restructure loans helped to stabilize the sector or simply pushed the refinancing problem into the future?
- Will demand patterns change coming out this recession?
- Will the lending environment constrain new development? Or will obsolescence drive construction ahead of expectations?
- How do these supply and demand conditions differ across regions?
- What is the outlook for and potential impact of federal, state, and local policy changes, including the carried interest tax increase?
Click here to dowload the podcast.
Bob Bach, as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Bob Bach prepares Grubb & Ellis’ national market publications covering the office, industrial, retail and investment markets. Bob oversees the preparation of approximately 90 Metro Trends reports covering quarterly market conditions in metropolitan office and industrial markets across the U.S. He works with research managers in the local offices of Grubb & Ellis to ensure their data are accurate. Additionally, Bob works with Grubb & Ellis clients as needed to complete specialized consulting assignments. He is a frequent speaker at national professional conferences. Bob has 30 years of professional experience in real estate market research, consulting and city planning. He has prepared or overseen the preparation of market feasibility studies for proposed development projects, ranging in scope from a 16,000 square-foot retail center to an 800-acre mixed use development.
Patrick Newport, is the Director of Long-Term Forecasting for IHS Global Insight's Macroeconomic Service. Mr. Newport is also responsible for IHS Global Insight's U.S. investment and housing forecasts. Prior to joining IHS Global Insight (then called DRI) in 1998, Newport was a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State, and an economist with the Washington State Department of Revenue. He has a PhD in economics from Harvard University and a MA and BA in economics from Louisiana State University.
"Homeowner Helper or HAMPer: An Assessment of Government Loss Mitigation Programs"
Thursday, May 13
Speakers:Dr. Jesse Abraham, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, moderator
Dr. Larry Cordell, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Dr. Paul Willen, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Many new federal government programs have been created over the past two years to minimize the number of home foreclosures resulting from sharply falling house prices and deteriorating economic conditions at a time of high levels of borrower housing leverage nationwide. That programs are constantly changing reflects the government’s struggle to find a design that achieves its objectives while prudently balancing expenditures, political fallout and moral hazard.
On May 13, two top Federal Reserve housing analysts will provide a succinct explanation of:
- what these programs are (now);
- how/why they are designed as they are to manage mortgage servicer and borrower behaviors;
- an assessment of how successful they have been to date; and
- offer informed conjectures about future effectiveness and possible further program changes.
This teleconference is available for purchase as a podcast by NABE members. Later, it will be available for free download by NABE members.
"Digging into Construction Data"
Thursday, April 8, 2010
11:00 AM (EDT)
Construction spending topped $900 billion in 2009. Investment in residential, private nonresidential, and public structures are important components of GDP. Learn (more) about how these data are put together, what to watch out for in using them, and what changes are in store. Presenters: Michael Davis, Census Bureau Construction Statistics Division; Jeffrey Crawford, section chief for private fixed investment at the Bureau of Economic Analysis; Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America.
Registration is free for RE/CRT members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
To purchase this podcast, contact the NABE office at (202) 463-6223.
"Getting Past the Noise: Housing Fundamentals in 2010"
January 21, 2010
11:00 AM (EST)
Monthly housing indicators are up one month and down the next; often that signals a cyclical turning point. But with market conditions so extreme compared to historical experience, many of these indicators contain a lot more noise than information.
On January 21, two widely followed observers of housing market trends will share their perspectives on these and other fundamental conditions in the housing market:
- By some measures house prices have been rising since the summer; then why aren’t more people buying homes and originators willing to accept more credit risk?
- HAMP has gotten off to a slow start, clogging foreclosure pipelines; what ultimate resolution is likely for the current and growing delinquent pool of borrowers?
- Housing starts are picking up, as are foreclosure sales; what’s the current demand/supply balance for owner-occupied homes?
- The extent of housing problems and readiness for recovery varies by region; which areas will be leaders and which laggards in the coming months?
This teleconference is available for purchase as a downloadable podcast. After 30 days, it will become a free download for NABE members only.
"The Problem in Nonresidential Real Estate:
How Big, How Bad, How Soon?"
Thursday, December 3, 2009
11:00 AM EST
Sara Rutledge, Invesco
The valuation declines that have laid waste to the housing market have also impacted commercial real estate with values reported to NCREIF down 25% from the peak through 2Q 2009. As with the housing market, there is weakness in demand for commercial space bringing occupancy down across property types to lows not seen since early in the decade. Although supply is less of an issue this time, the concentration of construction activity in a few markets will add to the overhang of space created by the recession. Property owners that need to roll-over their balloon debt are faced with the loss of securitization financing and tightened standards among the commercial banks that have been their stalwart investors. Is this slow-motion train wreck large enough to warrant a TALF II financing program or generate the second-leg down in a W-shaped recession?
This podcast is available as a free download on the NABE Podcast page or on iTunes