Manufacturing Roundtable Teleconference
Upcoming Teleconference
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Previous Events
“Whither Goes Housing”
February 22, 2008
11:00 am – 12:00 noon, EST
Teleconference participants:
David Berson, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist and Strategist, The PMI Group, Inc.
Dowell Myers, Professor and Director, Population Dynamics Research Group,
University of Southern California
Moderator: Kathryn Kobe, Director, Price Wage & Productivity Analysis, Economic Consulting Services LLC
David Berson's Slides
Dowell Myers Slides
Background:
The housing sector is an important end-use market for manufacturing and the decline of housing activity has directly affected a number of industries, especially those involved in supplying construction materials but also those supplying consumer products (appliances, furniture, carpeting, etc.) typically associated with a home purchase. Falling home prices characterize this business cycle and are now affecting manufacturing industries indirectly as consumers retrench, moderating the demand for durable and non-durable goods and then feeding back to orders and production.
Moreover, recent research by Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu of the University of California indicate that the housing market has a new problem: aging baby boomers and the generational housing bubble. This generation (born between 1946 and 1964) has been the dominant force in the housing market for decades. Looking ahead to the coming decade, the boomers will retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market. This change will make many more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them. The exit of baby boomers will have effects as significant as their entry into housing, but with different consequences.
Our participants will discuss the factors impacting the housing sector outlook in the short-run and discuss the longer-run issues that will likely impact the sector in the future.
Key questions to be entertained during the teleconference:
- The optimists point to the details in the most recent new home sales report that we are near the end? Are we? Or will housing bottom out in 2009, or in 2010?
- What do the most recent data tell us about the state of delinquencies and foreclosures and the ability of the credit markets to support financing for consumers wanting to buy homes?
- This housing cycle seems to be different due to the extent of falling house prices. How far will they fall for markets to clear?
- What have been the effects of demographic change -- the baby boom generation -- on housing?
- As baby boomers approach retirement will this upset traditional supply and demand for housing?
- What will be the price effects of this change and what is the potential impact on consumer wealth and spending?
- What are the consequences of a generational housing price correction?
- For manufacturers of building materials and other goods associated with housing, are there states or regions that will fare better or worse than others?
David Berson
Senior Vice President,
Chief Economist and Strategist,
The PMI Group, Inc.
As Chief Economist and Strategist, David Berson's responsibilities include domestic and global market research and planning, support of government relations and public policy, and strategic environmental planning. He also acts as a PMI spokesperson on topics related to global economic housing, and mortgage market conditions, prospects, and policy. Berson comes to PMI from Fannie Mae, where he was Vice President and Chief Economist since 1989. At Fannie Mae Berson was responsible for advising the company on national and regional economic, housing, and mortgage policy and conditions, including forecasts and analyses of the economy, interest rates, and housing and mortgage finance markets. Berson was also a senior member of the corporate strategy group, where he provided alternative views and risk analyses based on economic and market changes. Prior to Fannie Mae, Berson held senior management positions at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates overseeing domestic services, financial analysis, and modeling. As well, he has held several teaching positions at the University of Michigan, Claremont McKenna College, and Claremont Graduate School. Berson has published more than ten papers on the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. Berson received a Ph.D. in economics and a M.P.P. in public policy from the University of Michigan, and a B.A. in history and economics from Williams College. He has a long history of civic activity and currently serves on the advisory board for the Middle Patuxent Environmental Area and the board of directors for Crossway Community, a transitional housing project for homeless families.
Dowell Myers
Professor
Director, Population Dynamics Research Group
University of Southern California
Dowell Myers, Ph.D., is a specialist in urban growth and development with expertise as a planner and urban demographer. He is an advisor to the Bureau of the Census and has authored the most widely referenced work on census analysis, Analysis with Local Census Data: Portraits of Change (Academic Press, 1992). His program of research has pursued two contributions to the planning field: bringing people back in as the focus of planning success, and understanding planning as a temporal process of developing the future. Recent research projects have focused on the upward mobility of immigrants to Southern California and the many changes they create in the city, as well as on projections of the future impacts of the growing California population. Professor Myers is an academic fellow of the Urban Land Institute and a member of the Governing Board of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning. He has published recent articles in the Journal of the American Planning Association, Demography, American Sociological Review, and Housing Policy Debate. Dowell Myers has a Ph.D. in Urban Planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"U.S. Manufacturing Outlook"
Friday, November 30, 2007
11 AM-12 Noon Eastern
Speakers:
Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Thomas Runiewicz, Principal/Senior Economist, Global Insight.
These two experts will look at the current situation in manufacturing and the outlook over the next year. Some of the questions the teleconference will address:
- Will a lower dollar and sustained growth overseas sustain the growth in manufacturing exports? Will it continue to be the main driver?
- Now that the inventory correction is over, will capital investment improve and aid manufacturing?
- Has the worst of the housing collapse occurred or is there more to come? How will it affect manufacturing? Certainly, the "big ticket" housing-related industries like appliances, furniture, carpeting & rugs, and building materials are facing tough times. Are there others?
- What about motor vehicles?
- Is the credit crunch spilling over into manufacturing?
- Will rising oil and other commodity prices affect profits in manufacturing? Are the large profit gains behind us? What about productivity?
- Are we at a turning point in manufacturing?
- And the $64,000 question: Who are the winners and losers?
“Commodity Outlook”
Thursday, November 8, 2007
11 AM-12 Noon Eastern
Speakers:
Pat Westhoff, Market/Policy Research Associate Professor , Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Slideshow
Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, Chief Economist, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG Buchner
With Chinese and other Asian economies booming, the markets for the raw materials used in manufacturing have tightened up considerably. Oil, natural gas, steel, copper, corn and other commodity prices have soared since 2004, reaching new records for many.
- What’s in store for these commodity inputs?
- Will it make a difference to manufacturers and the broader economy?
- Will it finally affect inflation?
- Will soaring oil and other energy prices derail the economy?
Anyone concerned about energy, commodities, trade, inflation, forecasting, and economic policy should be interested in this session. These two experts will examine the current situation in agricultural, industrial and energy commodities as well as the outlook over the next year.
“Death Spirals, Summer Swoons, Volcanic Rebounds and All That--Whither Goes Steel?”
The NABE Manufacturing Roundtable will present a teleconference on the steel industry:
“Death Spirals, Summer Swoons, Volcanic Rebounds and All That--Whither Goes Steel?”
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
This event can be downloaded as a podcast directly from NABE, or via a free iTunes subscription.
Speaker: Peter F. Marcus, Managing Partner, World Steel Dynamics
Steel is pervasive in manufacturing, touching virtually every manufactured product. The steel industry has undergone profound change, with manifold implications for manufacturing. A wide array of forces is affecting the steel price outlook making it hard to read clearly at the present time. In this important teleconference, Peter Marcus of World Steel Dynamics will examine the transition from the old continuum to the new continuum for steel, metallics supply and demand, consolidation, and the implications for pricing power among steel suppliers. A Q & A session will follow. This teleconference is a must for any manufacturing company, trade association, or observer of this important industry.
Peter F. Marcus, a steel securities analyst, is founder of World Steel Dynamics (WSD) and a consultant to the steel industry. He began his career on Wall Street with L.F. Rothschild & Co. In early 1999, after 28 years at PaineWebber, Peter with his World Steel Dynamics staff formed their own separate and independent company. Peter graduated from Cornell University and received an MBA from New York University. He often refers to himself as an “industrial structure economist” and in performing steel forecasts seeks to understand how the "pricing power" of steel companies the world over will be impacted by changes in the steel industry's structure. Peter is a globally renowned authority on the steel industry.
World Steel Dynamics is the world's leading steel information service. WSD's steel experience, steel database, and availability of steel statistics are unmatched. The WSD international client list includes major integrated and non-integrated steel companies, steel users, equipment and raw material suppliers, financial institutions, government agencies, metal traders, steel service centers, and trade associations.
"Immigration and Labor in the U.S.: Worker Outcomes and Labor Impacts"
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
11:00 AM - 12:15 PM EDT
Speakers:
Rakesh Kochhar, Pew Hispanic Center
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Center for Employment Policy and Hudson Institute Fellow
Steve Camarota, Center for Immigration Studies
Rakesh Kochhar, associate director for research at the Pew Hispanic Center, will address foreign worker outcomes in the United States and the impact on native-born workers. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of the Center for Employment Policy and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Steve Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, will offer their respective insights on the topic. A question-and-answer session will follow.
This teleconference is available as a free NABE podcast. Download it via your iTunes subscription or from the NABE Podcasting page.
Rakesh Kochhar slideshow
Dropping Out: Immigrant Entry and Native Exit From the Labor Market, 2000-2005 by Steven Camarota
Reducing Greenhouse Gases: How Could it Work and Who Pays the Bill”
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
11 AM to 12 Noon EDT
Speakers:
Kathryn L. Kobe, Economic Consulting Services LLC, moderator
Terry Dinan, Congressional Budget Office
Ray Kopp, Resources for the Future
Terry Dinan slideshow (NABE members only)
Ray Kopp slideshow (NABE members only)
Scientific evidence about the potential damage from climate change has increased the pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Terry Dinan, an environmental expert at the Congressional Budget Office, and Ray Kopp an expert on energy issues at Resources for the Future will discuss the cap-and-trade program, in concept, and the distributional impacts of different allocation decisions, how the system is working in the European Union, current bills and the possibilities of using auctions instead of allocations.
This teleconference has been turned into a NABE Premium Podcast. It can be purchased for $10 on the NABE secure server.
“The Fallout from a Falling Dollar”
Friday, February 16, 2007
11 AM to Noon Eastern
Speakers:
Frank Vargo, National Association of Manufacturers
Jeff Werling, University of Maryland INFORUM
Lloyd Nace, moderator
The speakers will discuss various scenarios associated with the falling dollar and their impacts on U.S. manufacturing over the next five years.
Frank Vargo's slideshow (PDF, 135 K)
Jeff Werling's slideshow (PDF, 1.09 MB)
Frank Vargo
Vice President for International Economic Affairs
National Association of Manufacturers
As Vice President for International Economic Affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), Frank Vargo is the association’s chief spokesman on trade issues. He is responsible for working with the NAM’s member companies to obtain Congressional legislation and Executive Branch trade policies that benefit America’s manufacturers in the global marketplace. He is a leading lobbyist for trade agreements, currency policies, and other actions to reduce foreign barriers to U.S. trade and investment. He is the principal trade strategist for American manufacturing in the World Trade Organization Doha Round negotiations and in bilateral free trade agreements.
Mr. Vargo is a long-term trade expert. He is widely quoted in the press and is a recurring witness at Congressional hearings on trade. He is frequently asked to speak at trade conferences and seminars around the country.
Prior to joining the NAM, Mr. Vargo had a three-decade trade policy career at the U.S. Department of Commerce. His various positions included serving as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Europe, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, and Deputy Assistant Secretary for WTO Affairs and Trade Compliance. During his career at the Commerce Department, Mr. Vargo was awarded the President’s Distinguished Executive Award, the highest recognition a career government executive can receive.
The National Association of Manufacturers – is the nation’s largest and oldest multi-industry trade association. The NAM represents 14,000 members (including 10,000 small and mid-sized companies) and 350 member associations serving manufacturers and employees in every industrial sector and all 50 states. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the NAM has 10 additional offices across the country. Be sure to visit the NAM’s award-winning Web site at www.nam.org.
Jeff Werling
Executive Director
Inforum
Jeff Werling is Executive Director of Inforum, a research unit with in the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland College Park. Since its founding 40 years ago, Inforum has been dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment. Inforum pioneered the construction and use of dynamic general equilibrium models for the United States and other countries.
Returning to Inforum in 2003, Jeff manages the day-to-day activity at Inforum and serves as principle investigator for special projects applying Inforum modeling systems. In 2005 he completed a study for the International Trade Administration on the trade and economic impacts of currency fluctuations using the Inforum Bilateral Trade Model. Jeff also teaches an undergraduate course in economic development. Previously, he held positions as an international and industry economist with the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), the Manufacturers Alliance (MAPI), and the WEFA Group (now Global Insight). Jeff received a PhD in economics from the University of Maryland in 1992.
Previous Teleconferences
"U.S. Manufacturing Outlook "
Teleconference sponsoredby the NABE Manufacturing Roundtable
Held Friday, December 8, 2006
11 AM-12 Noon ET
Speaker:
Carl Chrappa, Chair, Manufacturing Roundtable, welcome
Kevin Swift, Chief Economist, American Chemistry Council, moderator
Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, Slideshow
Thomas Runiewicz, Principal/Senior Economist, Global Insight, Slideshow
This podcast is available for purchase for $10. Register here.
Speaker's Bios:
Daniel J. Meckstroth
Chief Economist, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Dan has been with the Alliance since 1990. Dr. Meckstroth provides comments and analysis on a wide variety of economic issues as they relate to the manufacturing sector and is the primary spokesperson for the Alliance on business conditions and economic matters. Dan also serves as a Council Director at the Alliance and currently is the Council Director to the E-Business and Purchasing Councils operated by the Alliance. He is frequently quoted in the business press and writes extensively on business practices and manufacturing activity.
Dan Meckstroth earned a Ph.D. in economics, a Master of Arts degree in economics, and a Masters of Arts degree in industrial relations, all from the University of Cincinnati. He received a Bachelor of Business Administration degree from Eastern Kentucky University.
Prior to his tenure at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, Meckstroth worked for Armco (now AK Steel), a steel manufacturer, as senior economist for corporate economic research from 1978-85 and as supervisor for corporate strategy and development from 1985-90. He also served as a business analyst in the corporate office for Federated Department Stores in Cincinnati, OH, from 1976-78.
Dan is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and is member and officer of the National Economists Club in Washington.
Thomas Runiewicz
Principal/Senior Economist, Global Insight
As a principal for the Industry Practice at Global Insight, Tom is responsible for projections about the US industrial economy, including special aspects about output, prices, costs, wages, capacity levels and profit margins. Tom authors sections in Global Insight’s, US Economic, Industry Analysis, and Cost Forecasting service publications. He particularly gained expertise in the paper and lumber, construction, steel, agricultural, and service sectors. Additional responsibilities include product line forecasting and consulting for clients that include many of the Fortune 500 and national trade associations. He has over 20 years of experience in the economic forecasting and consulting industry.
Other current professional experience includes: Certified Public Accountant at Brinker, Simpson & Company, L.L.P. specializing in tax and financial public accounting. Prior professional experiences include: Senior economist at Data Resources Inc. (DRI) in government consulting and agricultural forecasting; market research economist at Doane Information Services specializing in commodity analysis; economist at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA) working in the International Agricultural Service.
Tom received a M.S. in Agricultural Economics and Operations Research in 1980 from Pennsylvania State University. He also earned a B.S. in 1976 in Commerce and Finance from Wilkes University. He became a CPA in 1996.
This podcast is available for purchase for $10. Register here.
"Preliminary Estimates of R&D’s Role in GDP Growth"
Teleconference sponsored by the NABE Manufacturing Roundtable
Friday, October 20, 2006
Speakers:
Carol Robbins, Economist, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cliff Waldman, Economist, Manufacturers Alliance
Jeremy Leonard, Manufacturers Alliance
Cliff Waldman and Jeremy Leonard slideshow
Innovation is considered one of the drivers of economic growth. The U.S. spends more on R&D than any other country in the world and that is thought to be one of the country’s economic strengths. How much does R& D contribute to GDP growth? What role does R&D play in innovation and what other factors are important in that process? The Manufacturing Roundtable is pleased to announce a NABE teleconference on the topic of Innovation and R&D in the U.S. economy. Our speakers will be Carol Robbins of BEA and Cliff Waldman and Jeremy Leonard of the Manufacturers Alliance. Carol Robbins, the director of the R&D satellite account project, will discuss the preliminary estimates of R&D’s role in GDP growth. Cliff Waldman and Jeremy Leonard will discuss their research on innovation and its determinants, the work they have done to model innovation in the U.S. manufacturing sector and the role R&D plays in innovation.
Registration
This teleconference was recorded. A podcast of the teleconference can be purchased on our secure server for $10.
“Climate Change: an Economic View”
Teleconference sponsored by the NABE Corporate Planning, Manufacturing, and Regional Utility Roundtables
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
11 AM EDT
Speaker:
Bob Shackleton, Congressional Budget Office
Lloyd Nace, Chair, Manufacturing Roundtable will moderate.
Learn about the basic climate science and the historical and projected climate change along with the uncertainties with respect to that change. Hear about the economics of climate change: stock externalities, discounting, distribution of costs, and mitigation (quantity, price, and technology).
Bob Shackleton has served as a senior analyst in the Macroeconomic Analysis
Division at the Congressional Budget Office since 1999, working on climate
change, global demographics, retirement preparation, and international
remittances. From 1991 to 1999 he worked on climate issues at the
Environmental Protection Agency. He received his B.A. in Economics and
Political Science from Yale College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from
the University of Maryland at College Park.
This is a free NABE Podcast. Download it from the Podcasting Page.
" U.S. Manufacturing's Profits Squeeze and the Impact of Foreign Competition - A Case Study"
Tuesday, November 8, 2005
2:00 pm ET
Speakers
Bert Henriksen, Supply Chain Manager and Economic Analyst for Anchor Bolt & Screw (PDF slide show)
Jeremy Leonard, Economic Consultant to Manufacturers' Alliance (PDF slide show)
Book references from the teleconference. These books can all be purchased at the NABE Bookstore at Amazon.com.
References from the Nov. 8 Teleconference " U.S. Manufacturing's Profits Squeeze and the Impact of Foreign Competition - A Case Study"
The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century -- by Thomas L. Friedman
The Chinese Century : The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job -- by Oded Shenkar
Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East -- by Clyde Prestowitz
U.S. Manufacturing : The Engine for Growth in a Global Economy
by Thomas J. Duesterberg (Editor), Ernest H. Preeg (Editor)
The Manufacturers' Roundtable presented a teleconference "U.S. Manufacturing's Profits Squeeze and the Impact of Foreign Competition - A Case Study." Bert Henriksen, Supply Chain Manager and Economic Analyst for Anchor Bolt & Screw, will relate his company's experience and response to the impact of Imports on its business. Jeremy Leonard, Economic Consultant to Manufacturers' Alliance and author of the recently released publication "Profit Squeeze for U.S. Manufacturers: A Close Look at Five Major Industries", discussed the experience within the context of his research. There will be plenty of opportunity for Q & A as well.