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Assessing the Economic Effects of the Fed’s Exit Strategy
A joint-Financial Roundtable/Real Estate-Construction Roundtable Webinar
Tuesday, September 24
James Chessen, Chief Economist, American Bankers Association Chessen.pdf
Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac Nothaft.pdf
Cliff Waldman, Council Director and Senior Economist, Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) Waldman.pdf
Ed Kean, Observatory Group
The Webinar will explore the economic impact of the Federal Reserve’s looming exit strategy from its current monetary policy stance on different sectors of the economy, including housing, business investment and financial institutions. The Webinar will feature the following speakers, Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist, Freddie Mac; Cliff Waldman, Council Director and Senior Economist, Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation; and James Chessen, Chief Economist, American Bankers Association. The Webinar will take place 2 p.m. US Eastern Time September 24 and will last until 3 p.m.
Registration is free for all NABE members, $20 for others.
James Chessen, Amarican Bankers Association
James Chessen is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Bankers Association. In this capacity, Mr. Chessen oversees three departments: Economic Policy and Research which monitors the financial performance and condition of the banking industry and studies legislative and regulatory issues as they pertain to the banking industry; the Benchmarking and Survey Research group that conducts primary research and publishes comprehensive industry survey reports to meet members' information needs; and the Risk Management Policy group, which is responsible for ABA's physical and cyber security, fraud deterrence, business continuity efforts, and bank enterprise risk management activities. Mr. Chessen writes on banking issues and he appears regularly in the print and broadcast media. He has also testified before Congress and federal regulatory agencies on economic and banking issues. Prior to joining the ABA in March 1988, Mr. Chessen worked as a financial economist at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and was an assistant professor of economics at Lake Forest College in Lake Forest, Illinois. Mr. Chessen has a Ph.D. and an MA in Economics from Virginia Tech and a BA from the University of Puget Sound.
Frank E. Nothaft, Freddie Mac
Frank E. Nothaft was appointed to the position of chief economist in December 2001. In this position, Nothaft is responsible for forecasts, research and analysis of the macroeconomy, housing and mortgage markets. A widely quoted expert on housing and economic issues, Nothaft makes frequent appearances in both local and national media outlets. Nothaft joined Freddie Mac as a senior economist in November 1986. Nothaft was an economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 1983 until 1986, where he served in the mortgage and consumer finance section and as assistant to Governor Henry C. Wallich.
Nothaft holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and a B.A. cum laude in mathematics and computer science from New York University. Nothaft is a past president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association and a past Board member of the Financial Management Association. He currently serves on the Advisory Board of the Real Estate Research Institute and as Chair of the Real Estate Roundtable for the National Association for Business Economics.
Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. For more information please visit www.FreddieMac.com and Twitter: @FreddieMac.
Cliff Waldman, Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation
Cliff Waldman is Senior Economist for MAPI, a business research organization in Arlington, VA. He regularly writes and speaks on the U.S. and global economic outlooks. He has authored a number of papers and published several articles on the Chinese economy, winning a national award for an analysis of Chinese demographic trends. Mr. Waldman coauthored a cutting edge study on manufacturing innovation which was published in the October 2007 edition of Business Economics and for which he also received an award. Most recently, he directed a large project for the Southern Governors Association that analyzed the potential for advanced manufacturing cluster development in the American south. He holds a BA and MA in economics from Rutgers University. Before coming to Washington he served as a Research Economist for the New Jersey Department of Labor. At the Labor Department he built a number of econometric models used for program and policy analysis.
Upon coming to Washington, he worked in the research arm of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), America's largest trade group for small firms. While at NFIB, he traveled to South Africa to present a two-day seminar on survey and data collection methods at the University of the Witswatersrand, South Africa's largest English-speaking University. Mr. Waldman served as president of Waldman Associates, an economic consulting firm in Arlington, VA. Among his high profile projects was the creation of a leading index of business investment that he built with Alan Blinder, former Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board and Professor of Economics at Princeton University. He also designed a survey-based project for the Small Business Administration that was the first in two decades to generate data on the entrepreneurship activities and potential of the U.S. veteran and service-disabled veteran population.
Cliff has been consistently quoted in the major business media. His thinking on current economic trends and issues has appeared in New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and the Associated Press. He has also made appearances on CNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg television.
Stress Testing & Financial Institutions: Expectations, Models, and Missing Resources
Monday, August 19 11:00am ET
Michel Léonard, Alliant Insurance | A KKR Company
This webinar brings together private sector practitioners and former regulators to discuss current challenges facing experts charged with conducting stress tests at large financial institutions. The conversation discussion will focus on practical considerations such as regulatory expectations, available resources, as well as challenges such as lack of data. A special emphasis will be put on the soundness of suggested downside scenarios and how to best balance scenario credibility and stress test severity.
Registration is free for NABE members and the public.
Richard DeKaser Wells Fargo & Company
Richard DeKaser is Senior Vice President and Corporate Economist for Wells Fargo & Company, where he is responsible for preparing the corporation’s economic forecasts. As part of this responsibility, Mr. DeKaser oversees a team of economists that develop baseline projections for financial planning, as well as alternative economic scenarios to manage credit, liquidity and interest rate risk (including regulatory-driven stress testing). Mr. DeKaser’s team also provides advisory services to business units and corporate functions focused on risk management activities. A banking professional with 20 years of experience, Mr. DeKaser joined Wells Fargo in 2012. Previously, he served as SVP & Chief Economist for National City Corporation (now legacy PNC Financial) and Senior Financial Economist for Bank of Boston (now legacy Bank of America). He also worked in economic research and consulting for The Parthenon Group, Woodley Park Research and Data Resources, Inc. (now IHS Global Insight). He maintains an excellent track record of forecast accuracy, as judged by independent third parties – including the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and CBS Market Watch. Mr. DeKaser has held leadership positions in various associations, including the American Bankers’ Association (Chair of the Economic Advisory Committee), the New England Economic Project (President and Director), and the National Association of Business Economics (Director and Chair, Economic Outlook Committee and Financial Roundtable). Well-recognized within the economic/business community, he is quoted extensively in leading print and broadcast media outlets. Mr. DeKaser received undergraduate and advanced degrees in economics from New York University, and resides in Washington, DC.
Carl Tannenbaum Northern Trust
Carl Tannenbaum is the Chief Economist for The Northern Trust. In this role, Mr. Tannenbaum briefs clients and colleagues on the economy and business conditions, prepares the bank’s official economic outlook and participates in forecast surveys. He is a member of the bank’s investment policy committee and its asset/liability management committee. Mr. Tannenbaum serves as Northern Trust’s main spokesman on the economy. He publishes weekly commentaries and is frequently interviewed by media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Reuters. Prior to joining Northern Trust, Mr. Tannenbaum spent four years at the Federal Reserve, where he led the risk section. He was deeply involved in the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, helped to create and conduct its stress testing program, and advised senior Federal Reserve leaders on developments in banking and the financial markets. Mr. Tannenbaum began his career in banking at LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO, a global banking organization with $1 trillion in total assets. He served for more than 20 years there as the organization’s Chief Economist and Head of Balance Sheet Management. Mr. Tannenbaum is a past Chairman of the National Association for Business Economics, the Conference of Business Economists, the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee, the North American Asset/Liability Management Association, and the Bank Administration Institute’s Treasury Commission. Mr. Tannenbaum also serves on the Board of Working in the Schools (WITS), a literacy organization that supports the Chicago Public Schools. Mr. Tannenbaum holds an M.B.A. and a B.A. in finance and economics from the University of Chicago.
Michel Léonard Alliant Insurance
Dr. Michel Léonard is Chief Economist & Senior Vice President at Alliant Insurance, the risk advisor and insurance broker owned by Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts (KKR). Michel also serves on BCIU, the business leadership outreach group sponsored by the U.S. State Department, and is Adjunct Professor of International Political Economy in NYU's Department of Economics. His expertise is quantifying the likelihood and impact of macroeconomic and country risk for specific companies and transactions. His advisory services include risk ratings & analytics, stress testing, and scenario planning. Michel started his career with Richard Medley, George Soros' former chief policy strategist. In 2004, he became one of youngest Chief Economists at a Fortune 100 company. His current group, Alliant Emerging Markets, manages insurance and risk advisory programs covering $15 billion in assets in 70 countries. A graduate of McGill, he holds an MTS from Harvard and an MA & PhD in Political Economy from the University of Virginia focusing on, respectively, the Middle East, OECD government reform, and country risk management.
Could the Cure be Worse than the Disease? The benefits and costs of exceptionally low interest rates
Monday, April 15 1:00pm ET
Craig Alexander, Vice Chair, NABE Financial Roundtable and SVP & Chief Economist, TD Bank, moderator
Tony Crescenzi, Executive Vice President, Market Strategist and Portfolio manager, PIMCO Joe Gagnon, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics William (Bill) White, Chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the OECD and formally the Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Webinar Recording (Includes slide presentations)
Full Audio (Download as MP3 file)
Slides presentations (click to download):
This one hour webinar will discuss the benefits from the low-for-long interest rate environment being pursued by central banks throughout the advanced world and evaluate some of the potential unintended consequences. The presenters will be William (Bill) White, Chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the OECD and formally the Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Tony Crescenzi, Executive Vice President, Market Strategist and Portfolio Manager with PIMCO; and Joseph Gagnon, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics formerly Associate Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board and also prior visiting associate director at the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs.
Registration is free for NABE members and the public.
White Crescenzi Gagnon
“International capital standards: How does the U.S. measure up?”
Thursday, October 25, 2012 2:00pm ET
Eric Robins, Associate, Williams & Jensen, PLLC, moderator Wayne Abernathy, Executive Vice President for Financial Institutions Policy and Regulatory Affairs, American Bankers Association Slides Marcus Stanley, Policy Director, Americans for Financial Reform Slides
The webinar aims to examine the implementation of the Basel III capital standards, looking at the costs and/or benefits of them, how federal agencies have and plan to implement rules to be consistent with them, and/or the Congressional, industry/trade group, and public responses to this.
Registration is free for NABE members, $20 for others.
Click here to register now.
Eric Robins (moderator)
Eric Robins is an Associate with Williams & Jensen and works with clients on legislative and regulatory issues, primarily in tax and financial services. Prior to joining Williams & Jensen, Mr. Robins practiced securities and corporate law in New York for two years. In that role, Mr. Robins worked on federal, state and National Association of Securities Dealers dispute resolution cases. Mr. Robins also served as a legal adviser to various small publicly traded companies. Mr. Robins received his B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of Michigan and a J.D., M.A. in Economics, and an Advanced Certificate in the Economics of Law and Regulation from the State University of New York at Buffalo. Mr. Robins is a chair of the NABE Financial Roundtable and a past President and Chairman of the National Economists Club.
Wayne A. Abernathy
Wayne A. Abernathy joined the American Bankers Association in February of 2005, and serves as Executive Vice President for Financial Institutions Policy and Regulatory Affairs. Mr. Abernathy oversees ABA groups that deal with policy development, regulatory and compliance issues, bank general counsels, securities and investment, derivatives policy, and risk management. Before joining ABA, Mr. Abernathy served two years as Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions under President George W. Bush, receiving the Alexander Hamilton Award in recognition of his service. In that office he was also a member of the Board of Directors of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. Prior to his work in the Treasury, Mr. Abernathy served as Staff Director of the Senate Banking Committee, under Chairman Phil Gramm. Previous experience with the Senate Banking Committee includes serving as Staff Director of the Subcommittee on Securities during 1995-1998. From 1989 until 1994, Mr. Abernathy was a Republican economist for the committee. He previously worked as a senior legislative assistant for Senator Gramm during 1987-1989 and as an economist for the Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on International Finance and Monetary Policy during 1981-1986. Mr. Abernathy earned his bachelor’s degree in International Studies from The Johns Hopkins University in 1978. In 1980, he received a master’s degree in International Studies from the School of Advanced International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University.
Marcus Stanley is the Policy Director of Americans for Financial Reform. Americans for Financial Reform is a coalition of more than 250 national, state, and local groups who have come together to advocate for reform of the financial sector. Members of AFR include consumer, labor, civil rights, investor, retiree, community faith based and business groups along with prominent independent experts. Dr. Stanley has a Phd in public policy from Harvard University, and previously worked as an economic and policy advisor to Senator Barbara Boxer, as a Senior Economist at the U.S. Joint Economic Committee, and as an Assistant Professor of Economics at Case Western Reserve University.
Mortgage Risk Modeling & Dodd-Frank:
US & Global Perspectives on Macroeconomic, Valuation and Stress Testing
Tuesday, June 19 11:00am ET
Dr. Michel Léonard, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, Alliant Insurance | A Blackstone Group Company Jun Chen, Senior Director, Quantitative Research Group, Moody’s Analytics slides Deniz Igan, Economist, Macro-Financial Linkages Unit, Research Department, International Monetary Fund slides Dechu Muthana, Founding Principal, Tranche Solutions slides Frank E. Nothaft, Vice President & Chief Economist, FreddieMac slides
The panelists will discuss recent advances and best practices in mortgage risk analysis. Building on their own experience, they will discuss macroeconomic, security valuation tools, stress testing, including loan level analysis, as well as providing an international perspective to how different countries are addressing these issues at the forefront of banking and risk today.
The podcast recording is now available for download. The podcast is free for NABE members and $20 for others.
Click here to dowload the podcast.
Frank E. Nothaft was appointed to the position of chief economist in December 2001. In this position, Nothaft is responsible for forecasts, research and analysis of the macro economy, housing and mortgage markets. A widely quoted expert on housing and economic issues, Nothaft makes frequent appearances in both local and national media outlets. Nothaft joined Freddie Mac as a senior economist in November 1986. Nothaft was an economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 1983 until 1986, where he served in the mortgage and consumer finance section and as assistant to Governor Henry C. Wallich. Nothaft holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and a B.A. cum laude in mathematics and computer science from New York University. Nothaft is a past president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association and a past Board member of the Financial Management Association. He currently serves on the Advisory Board of the Real Estate Research Institute and as Co-Chair of the Real Estate Roundtable for the National Association for Business Economics. Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Over the years, Freddie Mac has made home possible for one in six homebuyers and more than five million renters.
Jun Chen joined Moody’s in 2008 as a Senior Director and is currently leading the research efforts in expanding credit risk analytics to commercial real estate. He has many years of experience in the real estate finance industry. Previously, he was a Co-Director of Debt Research at CB Richard Ellis Torto Wheaton Research, and before that, Director of Research and Analytics at Property & Portfolio Research. Jun was instrumental at these places in delivering cutting-edge market research and risk analytics consulting to a variety of prominent commercial real estate market participants. His other professional experience includes working at IndyMac Bank and Cornerstone Research. He also was a faculty member at Shanghai Jiaotong University before coming to the US. He has published widely in academic and professional journals and conferences. Jun obtained his PhD with a specialty in real estate finance and urban economics from the University of Southern California. His Master’s and Bachelor’s degrees are both from Tongji University, China.
Dechu Muthana is a founding Principal of Tranche Solutions. Inc., New York, a structured finance advisory boutique specializing in credit analyses, valuations and fixed income software solutions. A New York-based structured finance specialist, Ms. Muthana has over 15 years of experience in the Mortgage and Asset-backed markets, within the areas of Transaction Advisory, Buy-side, Ratings, and Fixed Income Analytics. Her specialties range from new deal issuance and loan-level analyses, to surveillance and valuations, including bringing subject matter expertise and strategic oversight to content commercialization efforts. She joined the Federal Home Loan Bank in 2003 as Structured Finance Officer to establish the surveillance and credit process for the Bank’s structured securities. In 2007, Ms. Muthana joined Standard and Poor’s as a Director, leading the content and commercialization strategy of Structured Finance ratings and research content on S&P’s flagship distribution platform. Additionally, she held various roles at Merrill Lynch, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Fitch Ratings. Ms. Muthana holds a Master's degree in Finance and International Business from Hofstra University.
Deniz Igan is a economist in the Macro-Financial Linkages Unit in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. She regularly contributes to the World Economic Outlook and the IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise. Previously, she worked in the European Department, focusing on Central and Eastern European countries. Her research interests include financial crises, corporate finance, and real estate markets. Her work has been published in academic journals including policy-oriented volumes such as NBER Macroeconomics Annual and Economic Policy. Deniz holds a PhD in economics from Princeton University and is a recipient of the IMF - Research Award for her innovative work on risks in real estate markets for the Early Warning Exercise and the Best Paper Award from the Midwest Finance Association.
Dr. Michel Léonard is Chief Economist & Senior Vice President for Alliant Insurance, the insurance brokerage & risk advisor owned by the Blackstone Group. Dr. Léonar’d expertise is advising senior management on how to integrate global macro, sovereign risk and political risk into growth, acquisition, portfolio and risk strategies. He has helped clients identify and mitigate such risks, enabling the completion of US $10 billion in cross-border transactions and contributed to Alpha on more than US $100 billion in multi-assets global portfolios. Dr. Léonard started his career with Medley Advisors, the global macro advisory founded by George Soros’ chief strategist. At 32, he joined Aon to become the youngest Chief Economist at a F200 company. He has advised F500 boards, C-Suites and governments, including the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. His work has been featured in Bloomberg and the NYT, FT and WSJ. A graduate of McGill University, he holds an M.T.S. from Harvard University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Economy from the University of Virginia.
"An Update on the Implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act"
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Eric Robins, Associate, Williams & Jensen, PLLC, presiding
Yin L. Wilczek, Senior Legal Editor, Sec Reg and Law Report, Bloomberg BNA, moderator
Jeff Harris, Dean’s Professor of Finance, Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University
James Overdahl, Vice President, NERA Economic Consulting
The NABE Financial Roundtable will hold a webinar to discuss the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, looking at the economic costs and/or benefits of the rulemakings, how federal agencies have and plan to implement the rules, and the Congressional, industry/trade group, and public responses to key rulemakings.
Registration is free for NABE members and $20 for others.
Click here to download the podcast.
NERA Economic Consulting
Dr. Overdahl is a Vice President in NERA's Securities and Finance Practice. Prior to joining NERA, Dr. Overdahl was Chief Economist and Director of the Office of Economic Analysis for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He served as principal economic advisor on policy, rulemaking, and litigation support and supervised the SEC's economics program. From 2002 to 2007, Dr. Overdahl served as Chief Economist and Director of the Office of the Chief Economist for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In his positions at the SEC and CFTC, Dr. Overdahl testified before each Commission. He also testified before Congress on behalf of the SEC and CFTC, and provided staff support and briefings for members of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.
While serving as Chief Economist of the SEC, Dr. Overdahl advised the Commission on a wide range of policy matters, including credit default swaps and other OTC derivatives, OTC clearing, high-frequency trading and related market structure issues, securities lending, short selling, market data fees, credit rating agencies, structured financial products, Sarbanes-Oxley provisions regarding internal controls, and new products. In addition, he advised the Commission and other government agencies on several matters related to the financial crisis of 2008. He also advised the Commission on investigation matters, enforcement proceedings, civil monetary penalties, disgorgement, and fair-funds distribution plans.
While serving as Chief Economist of the CFTC, Dr. Overdahl advised the Commission on policy matters related to exchange-traded futures and options, OTC derivatives (particularly energy derivatives), commodity price speculation, risk management and hedging, new products and markets, algorithmic trading, position limits, clearing, commodity index investing, hedge funds, and error trades. He also advised the Commission of enforcement matters related to commodity price manipulation and the alleged false reporting of natural gas transactions by several entities. In addition, he advised the Commission on restitution and civil monetary penalties.
Dr. Overdahl has also served as a Senior Financial Economist for the Risk Analysis Division of the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). He performed on-site assessments of risk measurement models employed by Tier 1 dealer banks, and assessments of model validation procedures within the risk management units of money center banks, of compliance with the Value-at-Risk requirements of the Basel Market Risk Capital Rule, and of the effectiveness of hedging and risk measurement techniques used to manage market risk in securitization conduits.
Prior to joining the OCC, Dr. Overdahl served as a Financial Economist in the CFTC's Division of Economic Analysis and the SEC's Office of Economic Analysis. He has taught as an Adjunct Professor of Finance at George Washington University, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, Virginia Tech, and George Mason University. Dr. Overdahl also served as Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Texas at Dallas School of Management.
Dr. Overdahl has published extensively in leading economics and finance journals, including theJournal of Business, Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Futures Markets, Journal of Derivatives, and Journal of Alternative Investments, and has contributed numerous chapters to published volumes on finance and economics. In addition, he has co-edited and co-authored, with Robert Kolb, four books in multiple editions, including Financial Derivatives: Pricing and Risk Management and Futures, Options, and Swaps.
Dean's Professor of Finance
Whitman School of Management
Dr. Jeffrey H. Harris is currently Dean’s Chair in Finance at the Whitman School of Management at Syracuse University where he teaches investments and derivatives courses. Dr. Harris has an extensive background in market microstructure and regulatory issues. He recently served as Chief Economist at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with prior experience as Visiting Academic at the Nasdaq Stock Market and at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He has previously held faculty appointments as the Collins Chair of Finance in the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University (visiting), at the University of Notre Dame and at The Ohio State University. His research appears in the Energy Journal, Financial Management, the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Investment Management, the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Futures Markets, the Review of Futures Markets and the Review of Financial Studies.
Dr. Harris received his B.A. in Physics and MBA from the University of Iowa and a Ph.D. in Finance from The Ohio State University.
Senior Legal Editor
Yin Wilczek is a senior legal editor at Bloomberg BNA, covering securities regulation for the news publication. Her areas of focus include: (1) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issues; (2) investor activism; (3) short selling of U.S. securities and uptick rule; (4) Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enforcement; (5) insider trading; (6) state and municipal securities regulation; and (7) executive compensation. Ms. Wilczek earned a B.S. in Journalism at University of Oregon, Eugene, OR and an LL.B. at the National University of Singapore School of Law. She is a member of the Singapore Bar.
Williams & Jensen, PLLC
Eric Robins is an Associate with Williams & Jensen and works with clients on legislative and regulatory issues, primarily in tax and financial services. Prior to joining Williams & Jensen, Mr. Robins practiced securities and corporate law in New York for two years. In that role, Mr. Robins worked on federal, state and National Association of Securities Dealers dispute resolution cases. Mr. Robins also served as a legal adviser to various small publicly traded companies. Mr. Robins received his B.A. in Economics and Political Science from the University of Michigan and a J.D., M.A. in Economics, and an Advanced Certificate in the Economics of Law and Regulation from the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Mr. Robins is a chair of the NABE Financial Roundtable and a past President and Chairman of the National Economists Club.
“Incorporating Financial Conditions into the Economic Outlook”
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
11:00 am ET
Parul Jain, Baruch College and Chief Investment Strategist, MacroFin Analytics LLC, moderator
Scott Brave, Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Ataman Ozyildirim, Associate Director, Economic Research, U.S. and Global Indicators Program, The Conference Board
Following the recent financial crisis, tracking financial indicators that help to understand and predict developments in this sector has gained a new urgency. Measurement has been lagging, while the interaction between financial cycles and economic cycles has not been well understood.
Long recognized for its work in producing the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), The Conference Board is now exploring ways to better account for the role of financial conditions in shaping the economic outlook. The Conference Board research has been looking at financial indicators from the perspective of the U.S. business cycle and the Leading Economic Index and applies the same principles that informed the selection of the LEI components to the selection of financial indicators with the goal of constructing a new composite leading indicator of the business cycle.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) takes a somewhat different approach to capturing financial conditions, building on the statistical framework underlying the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and its investigation of business cycles. The NFCI is a weekly coincident index constructed from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial variables over a period of 40 years. Chicago Fed research has focused on applications of the index to monitoring financial stability and evaluating the state of financial conditions relative to the business cycle.
The speakers will describe research on the impact of financial conditions on the real economy and the prospects for using measures of financial conditions as leading indicators.
Registration is free for KnowledgeLINK members and members of the NABE Financial Roundtable, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
Click here to register.
“How Mortgage Servicing Problems Are Holding Back the Housing Recovery”
Thursday, July 7
As the U.S. housing sector downturn enters its sixth year, buyers remain scarce and home prices as measured by S&P Case-Shiller have declined for nine consecutive months. As serious operational and legal problems in the mortgage servicing process have become more apparent, the result has been a rising backlog of mortgages in the foreclosure pipeline, clouding the outlook for investors, homebuilders, and prospective homebuyers. This NABE webinar will summarize the nature of these mortgage servicing problems and discuss how they are affecting U.S. mortgage loan performance and the outlook for the housing sector.
Rich Brown, Chief Economist, FDIC, moderator
Laurie S. Goodman, Senior Managing Director, Amherst Securities Group slides
Adam J. Levitin, Professor of Law at the Georgetown University Law Center slides
Registration is free for KnowledgeLINK and Financial Roundtable members, $15 for NABE members, and $60 for others.
Click here to register.
Laurie S. Goodman
Laurie is a Senior Managing Director at Amherst Securities Group, L.P., where she is responsible for strategy and business development. Laurie joined the firm in December, 2008, assembled the Strategy Team and began publication of the Amherst Mortgage Insight. From July 1993-Nov 2008, Laurie was head of Global Fixed Income Research and Manager of U.S. Securitized Products Research at UBS and predecessor firms. The UBS Securitized Products Research group was widely recognized for its insightful analysis and weekly Mortgage Strategist publication. Prior to that, Laurie spent 10 years in senior fixed income research positions at Citicorp, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch. She was also a mortgage portfolio manager on the buy side and a Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Laurie holds a B.A. in Mathematics from the University of Pennsylvania, and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from Stanford University. She has published more than 180 articles in professional and academic journals, and co-authored and co-edited five books. Laurie was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Hall of Fame in 2009.
Professor Levitin specializes in bankruptcy, commercial law, and financial regulation. His research focuses on consumer and housing finance, payments, and debt restructuring.
Before joining the Georgetown faculty, Professor Levitin practiced in the Business Finance & Restructuring Department of Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP in New York and served as law clerk to the Honorable Jane Richards Roth on the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. While at Georgetown, he has served as Special Counsel to the Congressional Oversight Panel and as the Robert Zinman Scholar in Residence at the American Bankruptcy Institute.
Professor Levitin holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School, an M.Phil and an A.M. from Columbia University, and an A.B. from Harvard College, all with honors.
"The State of Financial Markets: Credit Market Focus"
Thursday, May 12
Parul Jain, Baruch College and MacroFin Analytics, moderator
Ira Jersey, Director of US Interest Rate Strategy, Credit Suisse slides
Lotfi Karoui, Credit Strategist, Goldman Sachs slides
Financial markets have been continuously hit by various cross currents this year. While credit markets have coped reasonably well with various tensions, several segments -- particularly related to the housing sector -- still appear shaky. To decipher the underlying trends that define various segments of the current credit space, we draw upon the expertise of those who are closest to the market action. Along with a U.S. interest rate and fixed income overview, the discussion will focus on global developments. Q&A will follow.
Click here to register.
Ira Jersey is a Director in the US Interest Rate Strategy team of Credit Suisse. He performs sector level and financial market research from a relative value perspective within the Interest Rate Products area. Ira is also the lead analyst covering government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and short term markets. Ira's expertise also includes government policy analysis of markets and Fixed Income Asset Allocation. Prior to joining the interest rate area in 2007, Ira was a senior US Credit Strategist at Credit Suisse for over five years. Ira has held positions at RBC Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley Deal Witter and the Vanguard Group, beginning his career in finance in 1996. His education includes an MA in Economics from the New School University (New York), an MA in International Studies from the University of Birmingham (UK), and a BA from the American University (Washington, DC). Ira has also been a Professor of Professional Practice on the New School's graduate program in Global Finance and lectured at the Swiss Finance Institute's FAME Certificate Program. Professionally, he is a member of the American Finance Association. An amateur historian, Ira is a member of the Sons of the American Revolution (West Fields chapter vice president), the Association of Blauvelt Descendants (board member), and the Holland Society (friend).
Lotfi Karoui, is a Vice President at Goldman, Sachs & Co. since October 2007. He works with the Credit Strategy Research team in New York. Lotfi holds a Ph.D in Finance from McGill University, and a Master of Science in Financial Engineering from HEC Montreal. His academic research has been presented at numerous conferences and published in, among others, the Journal of Financial Economics and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Lotfi graduated from the Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales in Carthage, Tunisia, with a Bachelor of Science in Business.
"It Ain't Over"
Wednesday, April 21
Speaker: David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer from Cumberland Advisors slides
Moderator: Dr. Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Department of the Navy
The economy may not be on the road to recovery since significant obstacles still exist. This presentation examines the data and expectations embedded in credit spreads, as well as explores the employment situation. How and when will the Fed exit its stimulus programs? What signals should one look for? What is the prognosis for interest rates?
"Economic Recovery? Prospects and Prognoses"
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
11:00 AM (EST)
Dr. Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Department of the Navy, moderator
Dr. Brian Bethune, Chief U.S. Financial Economist, IHS Global Insight
Dr. Stuart Hoffman, Chief Economist, PNC Bank
This teleconference examines the conflicting positive and negative signals on the state of the economy and evaluates the upcoming path for growth. Are labor markets improving? Is there a risk that the stimulus could be withdrawn too quickly? What is the prognosis for inflation? To what degree will the recent proposals for banking reform assist long-term growth or limit it?
"Breakdown, Adjustment and Rebuilding the Financial sector, and Its Impact on the Real Economy"
Friday, June 26, 2009
1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EDT
Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy, moderator
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wachovia Bank Slides
Financial Proposals to Stabilize the US Mortgage Market
Speakers: Dr. RIchard Brown, FDIC
Dr. David Berson, PMI Group
Moderator: Dr. Nayantara Hensel, US Naval Postgraduate School
Time: Wed., Nov. 19, 3-4pm (EST) or 12-1pm (PST)
A number of proposals have been suggested to stabilize the US mortgage market. As economic conditions deteriorate, the impetus for loan modification has increased. Most recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the FDIC have provided loan modification plans, while various banks, such as Citigroup, Bank of America, etc. are engaging in loan modification programs. The purpose of the teleconference is to examine the various loan modification programs, their implementation and target audience, and their proposed impact, as well as to discuss the recent trends in the US mortgage markets.
" Where We Stand On the Financial Crisis”
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Peter Hooper, Chief U.S. Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities
Scott Pardee, Professor of Monetary Economics, Middlebury College
Charles Peabody, Portales Partners (Slideshow)
Robert T. McGee, U.S. Trust and Bank of America Wealth Management, will moderate
Credit Shocks and Economic Aftershocks
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Richard Brown, FDIC
Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services
John Silvia, Wachovia Bank
Nayantara Hensel, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
"The Unfolding Credit Crisis”
Thursday, November 1, 2007
2:00 PM Eastern
Charles Peabody, Portales Partners
Robert T. McGee, U.S. Trust Company will be moderator
Mr Peabody is an expert on credit market problems including those related to housing and mortgage markets. He was one of the few observers to anticipate the problems and realize that they were much broader than generally appreciated by the consensus. We have chosen the date so that he will be able to incorporate third quarter results of many large financial institutions into his comments.
This teleconference is now available as a podcast.
"Turmoil in Credit Markets: Rational Re-Pricing, or, Emerging Credit Crunch?"
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Martin Fridson, CFA, FridsonVision LLC
Mark Zandi , Moody's Economy.com Inc (Presentation -- PDF 282 K)
Joshua Rosner, Graham Fisher & Co
Richard DeKaser, National City Corporation, Moderator
The past few weeks have witnessed a significant re-assessment of credit risk. Credit spreads on corporate debt have widened, bond issuances have been cancelled, and commercial lenders have tightened underwriting standards. While the deterioration of credit quality in mortgage markets is widely acknowledged as appropriate, there is less agreement regarding slippage in other debt markets. The economic implications, therefore, are murky.
“Maintaining and Improving the Competitiveness of U.S. Capital Markets”
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
1:00 PM Eastern
Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, former Chair, President’s Council of Economic Advisers
Richard DeKaser, Chief Economist, National City Corporation, will moderate.
This teleconference is available as a NABE Premium Podcast for a registration fee of $10. You can register for the podcast on the NABE Secure Server.
Glenn Hubbard was named dean of Columbia Business School on July 1, 2004. A Columbia faculty member since 1988, he is also the Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics. As a faculty member at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, he is professor of economics. Professor Hubbard received his BA and BS degrees summa cum laude from the University of Central Florida, where he received the National Society of Professional Engineers Award. He holds AM and PhD degrees in economics from Harvard University, where he received fellowships from the National Science Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. He has been a visiting professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and Harvard Business School, as well as the University of Chicago. Professor Hubbard also held the John M. Olin Fellowship at the National Bureau of Economic Research, at which he remains affiliated with research programs in monetary economics, public economics, corporate finance, and industrial organization. Additionally, he is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a member of the International Advisory Board of the MBA Program of Ben-Gurion University.
For more background on Dean Hubbard, see http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/ghubbard/cv.html
"China's Trillion in U.S. Dollar Reserves - Threat or Opportunity?"
Held Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)
Richard DeKaser, Chief Economist, National City Corporation, will moderate.
This teleconference is available as a free podcast. Download it at the NABE Podcast page or via a free subscription at the Apple iTunes store.
Robert D. Hormats is Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs (International) and managing director of Goldman, Sachs & Co. He joined Goldman Sachs in 1982.
He was Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs from 1981 to 1982, Ambassador and Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1979 to 1981, and as Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs at the Department of State from 1977 to 1979. He served as a Senior Staff Member for International Economic Affairs on the National Security Council from 1969 to 1977 during which time he was Senior Economic Advisor to Dr. Henry Kissinger, General Brent Scowcroft and Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski. Mr. Hormats was a recipient of the French Legion of Honor in 1982 and Arthur Fleming Award in 1974.
Mr. Hormats has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton University and is a member of the Board of Visitors of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Dean’s Council of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Irvington Institute for Immunological Research, Engelhard Hanovia, Inc., The Economic Club of R New York, and Freedom House. Mr. Hormats is also a member of the Advisory Boards of Foreign Policy and International Economics magazines. Mr. Hormats’ publications include Abraham Lincoln and the Global Economy; American Albatross: The Foreign Debt Dilemma; and Reforming the International Monetary System. Other publications include articles in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, American Banker and The Financial Times. Mr. Hormats earned a B.A. from Tufts University in 1965 with a concentration in economics and political science. In 1966 he earned an M.A. and, in 1970, a Ph.D. in international economics from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
This teleconference is available as a free podcast. You can download it via the NABE Podcasts page, or via a podcasting subscription service
Teleconference sponsored by the Financial Roundtable
Thursday, November 9, 2006
3 PM Eastern
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office
Thomas D. Gallagher, Senior Managing Director ISI Group Inc
Richard DeKaser, Chief Economist, National City Corporation, will moderate.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin is the director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and the Paul A. Volcker chair in international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. He most recently served as the sixth director of the Congressional Budget Office, a position he held since February 2003.Dr. Holtz-Eakin previously served for 18 months as chief economist for the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, where he also served as senior staff economist in 1989 and 1990. Prior to that, Dr. Holtz-Eakin served as CBO’s representative on the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board.
Dr. Holtz-Eakin previously served as a trustee professor of economics at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University. At the Maxwell School, he served as chairman of the Department of Economics and associate director of the Center for Policy Research. He also has served as editor of the National Tax Journal, associate editor of the Journal of Human Resources, and as a member of the editorial board for Public Budgeting & Finance, Economics and Politics, Journal of Sports Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, and Public Works Management and Policy.
Dr. Holtz-Eakin has a long-standing and broad interest in the economics of public policy. He has studied the role of federal taxes in home ownership, the contribution of inventories to the business cycle, and a wide variety of topics in state and local government finance. Recently, his research has centered on the economics of fundamental tax reform, productivity effects of public infrastructure; income mobility in the United States; and the role of families, capital markets, health insurance and tax policy in the start-up and survival of entrepreneurial ventures.
Thomas D. Gallagher is a Senior Managing Director of International Strategy and Investment Group Inc. ISI is broker-dealer specializing in economic and political research for institutional investors. Tom runs ISI's Washington office, which analyzes the financial market implications of policy actions and political developments. He joined ISI in February 1999. Prior to that he was a managing director at Lehman Brothers, where he worked as a political economist for 13 years.
Tom has been ranked on the Institutional Investor's All-Star Team for Washington research for the last nine years and was rated the #1 Washington analyst in 2001. He is a regular panelist on "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street." He serves on the Community First Bankshares Board of Directors and is on the Editorial Advisory Board of Mental Floss magazine.
Before his Wall Street jobs, Tom worked in the federal government for eight years. He served as a senior staff member at the U.S. International Trade Commission, as a Legislative Assistant to Senator George Mitchell, as an Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, and as an Analyst in Public Finance for the Congressional Research Service. Tom earned a BS in Economics and Political Science from the University of South Dakota (1976) and a Masters of Public Policy from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (1978). He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst
This is a free podcast. You can download it via the NABE Podcasts page, or via a podcasting subscription service.
“Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?”
This teleconference was held Monday, August 14, 2006
Speaker: Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Chief Economist, IMF
This is a free podcast. You can download it via the NABE Podcasts page, or via a podcasting subscription service.
“Risks in the Financial System”
Teleconference sponsored by the NABE Financial Roundtable
Thursday, April 6, 2006
11 AM EDT
Speaker: Henry Kaufman, Wall Street economist and financial consultant.
This teleconference was held 4/6/2006.
This is a free podcast and can be downloaded from the NABE Podcast page, or subscribed to via iTunes
About Henry Kaufman
Henry Kaufman is President of Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc., a firm established in April 1988, specializing in economic and financial consulting. For the previous 26 years, he was with Salomon Brothers Inc, where he was Managing Director, Member of the Executive Committee, and in charge of the Firm’s four research departments. He was also a Vice Chairman of the parent company, Salomon Inc. Before joining Salomon Brothers, Dr. Kaufman was in commercial banking and served as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Dr. Kaufman, who was born in 1927, received a B.A. in economics from New York University in 1948, an M.S. in finance from Columbia University in 1949, and a Ph.D in banking and finance from New York University Graduate School of Business Administration in 1958. He also received an honorary Doctor of Laws degree from New York University in 1982, and an honorary Doctor of Humane Letters degree from Yeshiva University in 1986, and from Trinity College in 2005. Dr. Kaufman’s book, On Money and Markets, A WallStreet Memoir, was published in June, 2000. In 1987, Dr. Kaufman was awarded the first George S. Eccles Prize for excellence in economic writing from the Columbia Business School for his book, Interest Rates, the Markets, and the New Financial World.
Besides his business activities, Dr. Kaufman is active in a number of public organizations in the following capacities:
Member of the Board of Directors, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.;
Member of the Board of Trustees (and former President), The Animal Medical Center;
Member of the Board of Trustees, Cambridge Center For Behavioral Studies
Member of the Board of Trustees (and Chairman Emeritus), Institute of International Education;
Member of the Board of Trustees, New York University;
Treasurer (and former Trustee), The Economic Club of New York;
Member (and Chairman Emeritus), Board of Overseers, Stern School of Business, New York University
Member, International Advisory Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York;
Member, Advisory Committee to the Investment Committee, International
Monetary Fund Staff Retirement Plan;
Member of the Board of Governors, Tel-Aviv University.
Life Trustee, The Jewish Museum
Dr. Kaufman also served as a member of the Board of Directors of W. R. Berkley Corp. (1994-2001); FreddieMac (1990-2004); and as a member of the Board of Trustees of the Whitney Museum of American Art (1983-2005).
Speaker: John C. Bogle, Founder , Vanguard Group, Inc. , and President , Bogle Financial Markets Research Center
This teleconference was held 1/24/2006.
Topic: The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism
John Bogle’s recent book outlines what he sees as important shortcomings of U.S. corporate governance in the wake of Sarbanes-Oxley. These include boards that do not effectively protect shareholders by reigning in the excesses of managers; a shortening of the investment time horizon (the “rent-a-stock” system) that undermines market discipline; and excessive costs imposed by mutual fund managers who are more motivated by sales and fees than by stewardship. Fortunately, Bogle’s book is packed with concrete recommendations to address these issues, including reform in the way stock options are structured and expensed, a widening the scope of required financial reporting, and disclosure by mutual funds as to how they voted the proxies of their shareholders. This teleconference was hosted at the FDIC Risk Analysis Center. Mr. Bogle presentedt a summary of his views on these issues and addressed questions from the audience in this NABE Financial Roundtable teleconference presentation.
About John C. Bogle
John C. Bogle, 75, is Founder of The Vanguard Group, Inc., and President of the Bogle Financial Markets Research Center. He created Vanguard in 1974 and served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer until 1996 and Senior Chairman until 2000. In 2004, TIME magazine named Mr. Bogle as one of the world's 100 most powerful and influential people, and Institutional Investor presented him with its Lifetime Achievement Award. In 1999, FORTUNE designated him as one of the investment industry's four "Giants of the 20th Century." In the same year, he received the Woodrow Wilson Award from Princeton University for "distinguished achievement in the nation's service."