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George C Tiao Wins The Shiskin Award
George C. Tiao, the W. Allen Wallis Professor of Econometrics and Statistics of the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago, is the recipient of the 2001 Julius Shiskin Award for Economic Statistics sponsored by the National Association for Business Economics, the Washington Statistical Society, and the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. The award recognizes Tiao's research and leadership contributions to the methodological foundations of the first model-based approach to seasonal adjustment that has been adopted by several national statistical offices and central banks.
Tiao received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin in Madison and then joined the Statistics and Business faculties of this university, where he collaborated on Bayesian statistics and time series analysis with George Box and others. While teaching a short course on time series modeling for Dupont, he was asked about the connection between time series models and the X-11 seasonal adjustment program developed by the Census Bureau under Julius Shiskin's leadership. This led Tiao to make contact with Shiskin and to begin a program of research on possible roles for time series models in seasonal adjustment that has been underway for two decades, carried out in part with Ph.D. students, some of whom have become leading researchers in the field of seasonal adjustment. His work with Steven Hillmer showed how to go from an autoregressive moving average model to a seasonal adjustment in a systematic way that has been versatility implemented in the TRAMO\SEATS program of Agustin Maravall and Victor Gomez, software that is becoming widely used in Europe and is the object of much attention at statistical offices in the U.S.
The Award was established in 1979 by the family of the late Julius Shiskin and is administered by the Washington Statistical Society and the National Association of Business Economists. The award both memorialized Shiskin, for his career as a celebrated government economist economic statistician, and encourages others to engage in innovative work. The selection committee is made up of several representatives of the economic statistical community.
Previous Winners of the Shiskin Award for Economic Statistics
Edwin Dean, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. In granting the 2000 award, the Julius Shiskin Award committee cited Dr. Dean for his important contributions to the improvement of and understanding of productivity measures and for his leadership in international comparisons of labor statistics. His expertise and innovation have also expanded the Bureau of Labor Statistics international technical cooperation program. These steps helped foster the reputation of the United States as a leader in the World's increasingly global economy.
Robert P. Parker, Bureau of Economic Analysis, for his important contribution to aid in the management and interpretation of economy or for exceptionally sound and innovative research in economic statistics. He was also recognized for his decades of work in improving the U.S. and other countries' national income and product accounts, through his leadership in U.S. has made major improvements in the quality of its economic accounts statistics making them better suited for the management and interpretation of the economy. (1999)
Eva Jacobs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, for her management of the Consumer Expenditure Survey Program and her work on the use of the Consumer Expenditure Survey data to analyze and interpret the economy and her responsiveness to customer needs. (1998)
Joseph L. Gastwirth, George Washington University, for his seminal work that clarified the statistical procedures for the Lorenz curve and related measures of income inequality and also for his continuing contributions to statistical methodology needed for economic and labor analysis. (1998)
Jack E. Triplett, Chief Economist of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for his broad contributions to the field of economic measurement, including the development and introduction of hedonic price index measurement techniques and superlative price and quantity indices in the National Income and Product Accounts and, most recently, the development and implementation of the North American Industry Classification System. (1997)
David F. Findley, the Bureau of the Census, for outstanding scientific leadership in improving seasonal adjustment methodology for the economic times series at the Census Bureau, the Federal Government and throughout the world. (1996)
Fritz Scheuren, George Washington University, for breaking new ground in the construction of micro economic files, as well as the statistical uses of administrative data for economic research. (1995)
Joel Popkin, Joel Popkin and Company, for his contributions to the field of economic statistics, especially in the development of price indexes and other gurages of inflationary pressures. (1994)
Richard D. Allen, U.S. Department of Agriculture, for his contributions to the application of statistics to agricultural economics and to improving the quality, integrity, and timeliness of agricultural statistics. (1994)
Barbara A. Bailar, American Statistical Association, for her contributions in modernizing, improving, and extending the Census Bureau's statistical programs. (1993)
Allan H. Young, Bureau of Economic Analysis, for leadership in forging and refining statistical tools that contribute substantially to the ability to analyze the U.S. economy and for imaginative management of a major statistical agency through critical times. (1992)
Carol S. Carson, Bureau of Economic Analysis, for her outstanding leadership role in economic accounting nationally and at the work level. (1991)
Stephen P. Taylor, Federal Reserve Board, for his outstanding leadership role in developing and maintaining the U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts. (1991)
Jerome A. Mark, Bureau of Labor Statistics, for his outstanding achievements in the development and publications of measures of multi factor productivity. (1990)
Frank deLeeuw, Bureau of Economic Analysis, for his wide range of contributions to economic statistics that were characterized by the efficient use of statistical techniques and a practical analytical focus. (1989)
Charles Waite, for his contributions to the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of the Census. (1988)
Roger Herriot, Bureau of the Census, for his work in improving income statistics in the United States. (1988)
Irving Kravis, University of Pennsylvania, for his work in comparative studies for national income and prices. (1987)
Janet Norwood for her direction of the statistical program at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1986)
David A. Pierce for his use of modern statistical techniques at the Federal Reserve Board. (1985)
Geoffrey Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Columbia University, for his research in measurement and analysis of business cycles. (1984)
Beatrice Vaccara for her contributions at the Bureau of Industrial Analysis. (1983)
Edward Denison for his work at the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Brookings Institute. (1982)
James Bonns, Michigan State University, for his performance in chairing the Presidential Reorganization Project for the Federal Statistical System. (1981)
Estella Dagum, Statistics Canada, for her outstanding achievement in economic statistics, particularly for widely recognized contributions in time series analysis and for extending Julius Shiskin's pioneering work in seasonal adjustment by combining X11 seasonal adjustment program with the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and especially the development of the X11ARIMA method.
