NABE Policy Panel: NABE Panel Supports Fed Independence, Sees Current Monetary
and Fiscal Policy as Appropriate, but Expresses Concern About Deficit
The NABE Economic Policy Survey presents the consensus of a panel of 203 members of the National Association for Business Economics. Conducted semiannually, this survey was taken Feb. 4-22, 2010. May be reprinted in whole or in part with credit given to NABE. View the survey results, including complete tabulations, online at www.nabe.com. This is one of three surveys conducted by NABE. The other two are the NABE Outlook and the NABE Industry Survey. Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae; Michael Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association; Jose Guardado, American Medical Association; Chad Moutray, U.S. Small Business Administration; and Clifford Rossi, Center on Financial Policy, University of Maryland, conducted the analysis for this report.
The March 2010 National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Policy Survey reveals that two-thirds of the respondents believe that Federal Reserve monetary policy is appropriate at the moment. However, a majority believes that a rise in interest rates is both likely and appropriate in the next several months.
“Although the poll of our economists reveals different opinions on a number of policy options, the view of the importance of Federal Reserve independence is nearly unanimous,” according to NABE President Lynn Reaser, who is also chief economist for Point Loma Nazarene University.
Less than half of the respondents, but a significantly higher share than in last August’s survey, believe that fiscal policy is appropriate at present. Eight out of ten respondents do not believe another stimulus package is warranted at this time. In the event that a jobs initiative were to be adopted, the top policy choice for effective job creation would be the elimination of capital gains taxes on small business.
Fiscal concerns are evident in this latest polling of economists, with eight out of ten suggesting that the long-term imbalance of the federal budget might impact the country’s ability to borrow. The top choice for fiscal improvement on the tax side is tax simplification and loophole reduction. On the spending side, the leading recommendation is Social Security reform through a further increase in the eligibility age for benefits.
Relative to the health-care debate, fewer than half of the respondents feel that the current proposals would maintain quality while broadening coverage and reducing costs.
Finally, a review of opinions on a range of financial market reforms finds mixed views, with the exception that nearly two-thirds of respondents believe that greater explicit subsidization of the government sponsored enterprises would not be beneficial in improving the long-run health of the mortgage market.
Summary | Monetary Policy | Fiscal Policy | Deficit Reduction | Health Care Reform | Financial Regulation
Print Version | Tabulations (xls)
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