Greatest Short-Term Risk to the U.S. Economy

Terrorism moved back above energy prices as the major short-term worry for the U.S. economy. The economists surveyed seem more convinced higher oil prices are manageable than they were six months ago. The twin deficits were the other major concern. Worries about unemployment have disappeared over the last two years.

Short-Term Risks to the U.S. Economy
(Percent of survey panelists responding)
	Survey Month
	Aug 2003	Mar 2004	Aug 2004	Mar 2005	Sep 2005	Mar 2006
Defense/terrorism	13	19	40	24	20	26
Energy prices	2	3	6	11	30	23
Govt spending/ deficit	21	25	23	27	13	14
Current account deficit	4	5	5	15	11	13
Excessive household/corporate debt	3	6	5	2	9	7
Inflation	1	6	9	6	5	3
Overcapacity	10	1	1	1	1	2
Unemployment/employment	16	25	6	2	1	1

Greatest Long-Term Challenges to the U.S. Economy

Long-term challenges remain stable, with the focus on the related issues of health care and the federal deficit. Worries about poor education have been passed by the growth of the elderly population in the last six months, returning to a more normal order of problems.

Longer-Term Challenges to the U.S. Economy
(Percent of survey panelists responding)
	Survey Date
	Mar 2004	Aug 2004	Mar 2005	Sep 2005	Mar 2006
Health care	19	22	23	23	22
Federal deficit	24	17	21	22	22
Growth of elderly population/ dependency ratio	27	23	22	18	21
Education system	12	19	16	21	16
Competitiveness	NA	6	8	7	5
Energy issues	NA	6	4	4	8

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