Greatest Short-Term Risk to the U.S. Economy:

Energy prices replaced the federal deficit as the major short-term risk to the economy. Household and corporate debt also rose sharply in importance, while the federal deficit fell. Economists have largely stopped worrying about employment, overcapacity, and inflation.

Short-Term Risks to the U.S. Economy
(Percent of survey panelists responding)

	Mar 2003	Aug 2003	Mar 2004	Aug 2004	Mar 2005	Sep 2005
Energy prices	NA	2	3	6	11	30
Defense/terrorism	41	13	19	40	24	20
Govt spending/deficit	11	21	25	23	27	13
Current account deficit	NA	4	5	5	15	11
Excessive household/corporate debt	5	3	6	5	2	9
Inflation	NA	1	6	9	6	5
Unemployment/employment	NA	16	25	6	2	1
Overcapacity	8	10	1	1	1	1

Survey Summary
Greatest Short-term Risk to US Economy
Greatest Long-term Challenges to US Economy
Strengths in the US Economy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Detailed Answer File
Print Version of Report