The panelists give the Federal Reserve a strong vote of confidence, with 63% saying monetary policy is about right, up from 59% six months ago. Only 3% feel monetary policy is too tight. Looking ahead, most respondents (66%) believe monetary policy should tighten over the next six months, compared with 62% last August. Almost all (97%) think short-term interest rates will increase, with respondents about evenly split between increases of 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 percentage point over the next six months.
Current monetary policy is: |
|||
Survey Date |
Too restrictive |
About Right |
Too Stimulative |
| Mar 2005 | 3 | 63 | 33 |
| August 2004 | 4 | 59 | 36 |
| March 2004 | 3 | 70 | 28 |
| August 2003 | 9 | 68 | 23 |
March 2003 |
8 |
81 |
9 |
August 2002 |
8 |
77 |
12 |
March 2002 |
3 |
78 |
17 |
August 2001 |
17 |
67 |
11 |
March 2001 |
34 |
56 |
7 |
August 2000 |
9 |
76 |
12 |
February 2000 |
5 |
62 |
32 |
August 1999 |
3 |
74 |
22 |
March 1999 |
2 |
75 |
23 |
October 1998 |
7 |
82 |
11 |
May 1998 |
2 |
76 |
22 |
February 1998 |
8 |
86 |
6 |
November 1997 |
4 |
83 |
7 |
August 1997 |
6 |
85 |
7 |
May 1997 |
12 |
74 |
14 |
February 1997 |
7 |
83 |
10 |
November 1996 |
14 |
77 |
8 |
Survey Summary
Greatest Short-term Risk to US Economy
Greatest Long-term Challenges to US Economy
Strengths in the US Economy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Detailed Answer File
Print Version of Report