Greatest Short-Term Risk to the U.S. Economy:

Deficits replaced terrorism as the major short-term risk to the economy. The trade deficit rose sharply in importance, as did energy prices. Economists have largely stopped worrying about employment, household debt, and inflation.

Short-Term Risks to the U.S. Economy
(Percent of survey panelists responding)

	Aug 02	Mar 03	Aug 03	Mar 04	Aug 04	Mar 05
Government spending/ federal deficit	na	11	21	25	23	27
Defense/terrorism	3	41	13	19	40	24
Current account deficit	3	na	4	5	5	15
Energy	na	na	2	3	6	11
Inflation	na	na	1	6	9	6
Unemployment/employment	na	na	16	25	6	2
Excessive household/corporate debt	7	5	3	6	5	2
Overcapacity	5	8	10	1	1	1

 

 

Survey Summary
Greatest Short-term Risk to US Economy
Greatest Long-term Challenges to US Economy
Strengths in the US Economy
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Detailed Answer File
Print Version of Report