 |
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
||
 |
 |
 |
|
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
 |
|
||
NABE Panel: Federal Deficit a Risk, Monetary Policy About Right, Health Care Needs Major Reform
August 2003
“The increasing federal deficit is the top risk NABE panelists see facing the U.S. economy, although the threat is more a long-term than short-term concern,” said Tim O'Neill, President of NABE and Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group. “Two-thirds of our panelists feel monetary policy is about right and support leaving it unchanged over the next six months. They feel, however, that the Fed could improve its communications especially of unconventional policy measures being considered. The majority of panelists think the U.S. healthcare system needs fundamental reform, particularly to stem rising costs. This can be best accomplished through the spread of consumer-directed initiatives.”
Survey Highlights
- The growing federal deficit was the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy. The increasing federal deficit and rising unemployment topped the list of concerns panelists had about the U.S. economy, while worries about international military operations and homeland security have faded.
- Productivity gains and a technological lead were seen as the country’s greatest strengths. These two categories have topped the list of strengths over the past two years.
- Two-thirds of our panelists believe monetary policy is about right. Nearly the same percentage would like to see policy unchanged over the next six months. Just over half of the panelists think short-term interest rates will remain about where they are today and 43% are worried short-term interest rates may rise.
- Unconventional monetary policy. When asked about the Fed’s potential use of unconventional monetary tools, most respondents did not think Fed officials had done a good job communicating their options. Since the majority of respondents don’t think monetary policy needs to be more stimulative, few look for unconventional tools to be used in the near term.
- The majority of panelists thought the U.S. healthcare system needed
fundamental reform, particularly with regard to higher costs. More
government control was NOT advised, but panelists expressed support
for the spread of consumer-directed health initiatives such as medical
savings accounts and more choice of benefits among a variety of plans.
National Association for Business Economics
1233 20th Street NW #505
Washington, DC 20036
Phone 202.463.6223 Fax 202.463.6239
nabe@nabe.com
© 2003, NABE®
The NABE Economic Policy Survey presents the consensus of a panel of 194 members of the National Association for Business Economics. Conducted semiannually, this survey was taken July 25-August 6. May be reprinted in whole or in part with credit given to NABE. View the survey results, including complete tabulations, online at www.nabe.com. This is one of three surveys conducted by NABE. The other two are the NABE Outlook and the NABE Industry Survey. Laurie Matthias King of Capital Guardian Trust Company conducted the analysis for this report.
PDF Version (better for printing)
Answer tabulations, part 1(pdf)
Answer tabulations, part 2 (pdf)
