Data Points: New resources and other noteworthy developments

Is the U.S. Economy in Recession? The official answer is probably several months away.  In its latest update <link>, the National Bureau of Economic Research explains in great detail how its Business Cycle Dating Committee is tracking the latest principal economic indicators in order to determine if the economy is in recession. NBER offers a question-and-answer section and spells out its definitions and criteria.  How long after the beginning of a recession does the committee typically declare a recession has begun?   “Anywhere from 6 to 18 months. We never consider forecasts,” NBER said.
 
Tourism Outlays Decline: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported March 19 that spending on tourism in the United States grew 2.1 percent in 2007, continuing the pattern of slower growth that has prevailed since the peak in 2004.  In the fourth quarter of last year, BEA said that passenger air transportation spending fell 1.3 percent, while outlays for accommodations rose 12.5 percent.

Reasons for Payroll Data Revisions: Explaining its data collection methods and how they affect revisions in the much watched payroll employment estimates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released a paper  that spells out the significance of its late sample report, annual benchmarking, and other factors. Each month the agency surveys 150,000 business and government agencies that represent about 390,000 worksites throughout the United States. The short data collection cycle produces the initial payroll estimates, typically on the first Friday of the month, and is followed by several revisions as survey respondents file more complete reports.

BLS Proposed Budget Highlights: In late March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted “2009 Budget Highlights”  on its website.  Among the proposed increases is $10.4 million for modernizing of the consumer price index, an expenditure that would “improve the accuracy of the CPI by continuously updating the housing and geographic area samples,” the agency said.  This is the third straight year that BLS has sought funding for these CPI improvements.

Hedging Bets on Payroll Data: Effective on April 27, the CME Group, parent company of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade, will launch Nonfarm Payroll futures and options on futures <link> that will coincide with the release of April payroll data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, May 2. The futures contracts will be “a transparent, straightforward and accessible way for you to gain direct exposure to the government number or to offset unexpected financial market moves that often occur when this number comes out,” according to the CME announcement.