Census Director Kincannon Tells of Budget Crunch Challenges

When Census Bureau Director C. Louis Kincannon sent his letter of resignation to President Bush in November, he said that after more than 40 years of public service and four years as director, “shifting priorities make it time for me to retire.”  He agreed to stay on until the confirmation of a successor, yet to be nominated.

President Bush nominated Kincannon as Census director in August 2001 and the Senate confirmed his appointment in March 2002.   He served as deputy director of Census from 1982 through 1992, a decade in which he served as acting director twice.  In October 1992, he left Census to serve as the first chief statistician of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris.  In 1975, he joined the staff of the Office of Management and Budget, where he worked on statistical and regulatory policy. He has received several awards recognizing his public service, including the Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Service and the Department of Commerce Gold Medal.

Born in Waco, Texas, in 1940, Kincannon attended the University of Texas at Austin and did post-graduate work at the George Washington University, Georgetown University, and the University of Maryland.  He began his career as a statistician at the Census Bureau in 1963.

Under Kincannon’s tenure as director, Census has made what data users consider significant progress in conducting the decennial census and related programs, in particular the American Community Survey that will allow the use of only the Census Short Form in the 2010 population count for the first time. With the focus on the seven constitutionally mandated questions, the next decennial census “will save enough money to reduce the life cycle cost of the census below old methods,” he wrote in his letter to the president.

However, the bottom line of funding for the 2010 census remains unresolved as the lame-duck Congress rolled most of the federal government’s spending bills into a huge fiscal 2007 continuing resolution (CR) that runs through Feb. 15, 2007.  The CR funds federal agencies at last year’s (fiscal 2006) levels. Leaders of the new Congress have indicated that the House and Senate could extend funding in the CR through the entire fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30, 2007.  If that happens, the Census Bureau’s plans to accelerate testing and other planning for the 2010 count could be in jeopardy.

Kincannon expressed his concern about prospects for such an appropriations outcome, as well as other budget challenges over his tenure. In early December, he responded to questions from NABE News.  Here is the exchange, conducted through e-mails:

Q. If the continuing resolution that was recently extended through Feb. 15, 2007, is extended through all of fiscal 2007, what would be the effect on Census Bureau programs?

A.  The continuing resolution passed by Congress on Dec. 8 funds the Census Bureau at the fiscal 2006 level until Feb. 15, 2007.   If the new Congress passes a CR effective after Feb. 15 through the end of the fiscal 2007 with no anomalies in spending for the Census Bureau, the plans we have for the 2010 Census and other decennial programs would need to undergo major alteration.  We would make final decisions based on congressional action in February.

The President has requested  $878.2 million for FY 2007.  The House mark is $825.9 million, a reduction of  $52.3 million.  The House cut $4 million from the request for Current Economic Statistics while at the same time adding $10 million for Current Demographic Statistics specifically for continuation of the Survey of Income and Program Participation.   Also cut was $53.3 million from the Decennial Census Program.
 
The Senate mark was $828.2 million, $50 million below the Presidents’ FY 2007 request.  The Senate Appropriations Committee mark reduced $50 million from the Census Bureau’s Periodic Censuses and Programs appropriation.  However, the Senate mark provides flexibility to the Census Bureau in allocating funding, although it has not yet been considered by the full Senate.  

Q. What are your major concerns about funding for the 2010 census and other high profile programs?

A. The House Appropriations bill and its instructions regarding where the cuts are to be taken will make it impossible for the Census Bureau to implement substantial automation improvements planned for the 2010 Census.  Specifically, it would force the Census Bureau to drop planned efforts to use Hand-Held Computers (HHCs) to collect data during 2010 Census non-response follow-up operations and revert to paper operations.  The Census Bureau estimates that the loss of the use of HHCs will add at least $1.3 billion to the life cycle cost of the 2010 Census.

In addition to the loss of the use of HHCs, the House mark would result in reduction of the funds available for the American Community Survey (ACS) and several economic statistics programs.        

Q. In the current tight budget environment, it appears to be harder for federal data agencies to continue with research, data improvements and data initiatives.  Is that the case?  If so, what are the long-term consequences?

Absolutely.  Our current tight budget climate is certainly worrisome and that long-term failure to invest in research, data improvements and data initiatives is very harmful for any organization including the federal statistical system.  Fortunately, in recent years the Census Bureau with the help of the Congress and with consistent support from the administration has been provided the funds needed to vigorously research alternatives related to the conduct of the 2010 census.

We have been able to develop and field the American Community Survey as a replacement for the Census Long Form. This allows data to be provided for small geographic areas on an annual basis rather than once every 10 years. We have also been able to research and test the use of hand-held computers for use in collecting data from individuals that did not respond to our mail-out request. The expanded use of automation combined with vigorously conducted research on many other Census methods have allowed the Census Bureau to be in excellent position to conduct the 2010 census with improved quality and relevance, reduced risk, and at a cost that is lower than the projected cost of repeating the census 2000 design. This example of using scarce resources to focus research and innovation on critical projects shows that even in difficult budgetary times progress can be made if we all work together.

Q. How have the challenges of serving as Census Bureau Director changed since you began your tenure in 2002?

A. The main change from the 1980s is increased partisanship in Washington.  This makes it hard for Congress to reach decisions on funding.  That in turn hampers science agencies, including the federal statistical agencies, from following long-term planning, e.g., to improve statistics and cover new areas of economic activity.

Q. You have served on the NABE Statistics Committee and often consulted with members about data programs and changes.  How has that process worked from your point of view?  Is there any advice you would offer to NABE members about communicating with Census about their concerns?

A. The NABE Statistics Committee is invaluable as a sounding board about out plans, whether for priorities in new work or in trimming back existing work.  Interactions with individual NABE members is often helpful to us in understanding how we can do a better job of meeting the needs of data users.

Q. Why did you decide to resign as Director at this time?

A.  As I told the President in my letter of resignation:  “Many letters of resignation cite the need to spend more time with one’s family.  Perhaps we should not always regard such claims as cynically as Washington tends to.  In my case, changing family responsibilities require a change in my priorities, if I am not to be derelict.  Family must come first, and [former Commerce Secretary] Don Evans set the example I want to follow.”

Q. What are your plans after you leave the Census Bureau?

A. I plan to travel with my wife, spend more time with out-of-town grandchildren, and perhaps to work in a part-time capacity if something interesting presents itself.  Read more, enjoy the various museums of Washington, tend my garden.