NABE Outlook: Recovery Soon to Lose "Jobless" Label
November 2009
SUMMARY: Reaffirming last month’s call that the Great Recession is over, NABE panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth in 2010 and expect performance to exceed its long-term trend. “While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change. Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs,” said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. Panelists predict a relatively sluggish consumer upturn but look for a sizable housing rebound, low inflation, and further rise in stock prices. Importantly, panelists are mostly (though not entirely) optimistic that the Federal Reserve’s policies will not lead to higher inflation. At the same time, NABE panelists are “extremely” concerned about high federal deficits over the next five years.
Highlights
- After declaring in October that the Great Recession of 2008-2009 was over, the NABE forecast panel is now boosting its expectations for growth.
- The household sector is still expected to lag behind the overall economy.
- The recovery will not remain “jobless” for long. With more than 7.3 million jobs lost since December 200.
- The nascent housing recovery will be uninterrupted and will gather momentum.
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