The Great Inflation: Inflation, Inflationary Expectations, and the Phillips Cycle 1960- 2002

Improvements In Monetary Policy Tamed Inflation Once—Can They Do It Again?

By Thomas W. Synnott, 3rd

Thomas W. Synnott, 3rd is an adjunct professor of industrial engineering at Cooper Union Engineering School. Previously he was with the USAF Institute of Technology and the U.S. Trust Company, where he is chief economist emeritus. He has published articles in various journals, including Business Economics, and is a member of a number of scientific and professional societies. He received his B.A. from Williams College and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Yale University.

Given the ongoing concern with controlling inflation, it is timely to take another look at the “Great Inflation” of 1966-1983 and to try to understand the process that led to ever-higher peaks of inflation and interest rates. How was this apparently intractable dynamic reversed? While a member of the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke set forth three explanations for the decline in macroeconomic volatility: structural change, improved macroeconomic policies, and good luck. While luck is not controlled by government, and government has only tangential influence on structural change, macroeconomic policy is solely the responsibility of the federal government, particularly the Federal Reserve System. Improvements of monetary policy were largely responsible for taming the Great Inflation, but new threats —including the dimming of memory—are current challenges to preventing its recurrence.

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JEL Code: E52, E31