China’s Demographic
Destiny and Its Economic Implications
Population Changes Will Impact China’s Long-Term Economic Growth And
Global Competitiveness
By Cliff Waldman
Cliff Waldman is the global economist
for the Manufacturers
Alliance/MAPI, a business research
organization. For five years, he
served as president of Waldman
Associates, an economic consulting
firm in Arlington, VA. Previously,
he worked in the research arm of
the National Federation of
Independent Business (NFIB) and served as a research
economist for the New Jersey Department of Labor. He
received a B.A. and M.A. in economics from Rutgers
University.
China appears to be at the edge of an historic demographic
transition, setting the country on a path to
grow old before it becomes prosperous. This paper presents
a detailed picture of the current population dynamic
and analyzes the implications for economic prospects.
The results indicate that China is not yet at the stage of
development where population changes matter a great
deal for economic growth. But when that time comes,
perhaps in a decade or so, demographic changes will
have a profound influence not only on economic growth
but on China’s global competitiveness.
This paper won a NABE Award for an outstanding paper contributed by a NABE member. Standard & Poor’s sponsored the award. The paper was presented at the NABE Annual Meeting on September 26, 2005.
By Cliff Waldman