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In Memoriam
From the Editor
R. Glenn Hubbard: Economic Outlook and Economic Policy in the United States
Alice M. Rivlin:
Thoughts on the Economic Future
Richard Curtin: What Recession? What Recovery? The Arrival
of the 21st Century Consumer
Spencer F. England: The Federal Reserve Board and the Stock
Market Bubble
Hossein Askari: Caspian Oil Development: The Sooner the
Better
Ilhan K. Geckil: Competitive Responses to Corporate Average
Fuel Economy Standards
Robert P. Parker: More US Economic Data Series Incorporate
the North American Industry Classification System
Andrew C. Gross and Michael B. Richardson: Water
Treatment Chemicals
James L. Bicksler: What
We Know and What We Don't Know About Corporate Governance
Tim O'Neill: Economics at Work
Book Reviews
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What Recession?
What Recovery?
The Arrival of the 21st
Century Consumer
Consumer Ambiguity is Likely to be a Feature of the U.S. Economy for
Some
Time to Come.
 Richard Curtin
Richard Curtin has been the
Director of the Surveys of
Consumers at the University of
Michigan, since 1976. The
results from the surveys are
widely used by businesses and
financial institutions, by federal
agencies, and by academic
researchers. Through frequent
presentation and published
articles, he has reported on his research in behavioral economics. He received his Ph.D.
in economics from the University of Michigan in 1975.
Consumer confidence is a fairly accurate predictor of
macroeconomic change. Recently, measures of consumer
confidence have been giving ambiguous signals
about consumer confidence and future economic
growth. The factors behind the levels of consumer confidence
as of the end of September 2002 are explored
and provide insight into the determinants of consumer
confidence and its importance as a predictor of the
economy in the future. Also, the paper illustrates how
the various aspects of consumer confidence can be used
to interpret different facets of the economy, now and in
the future.
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