Program

Saturday, September 24, 2005
Premeeting Event

11:00 AM-5:00 PM Intermodal Facility Tour

Burlington Northern/Santa Fe Railway facility at Logistics Park in Chicago.

Meeting Sessions
Sunday, September 25, 2005

10:00- 10:30 Networking Break
Sponsor: Springer and NABE

10:30-11:45 AM Concurrent Skills Sessions

Presentation Skills

Find out how to develop the speaking skills and habits you need to communicate effectively.
Rosemary D. Marcuss, NABE President/Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis, moderator
C. Peter Giuliano, Chairman, Executive Communications Group

Cost of Capital and Corporate Valuation

Learn about the cutting-edge methods and techniques for determining the cost of capital used in valuation of corporate enterprises.
James Meil, Chief Economist, Eaton Corporation, moderator
David W. King, Senior Vice President, Mesirow Financial Consulting, LLC
John H. Cochrane, Professor of Finance,University of Chicago

12:00-1:30 PM Luncheon

The former director of the Central Intelligence Agency will discuss the challenges that confront U.S. businesses and policymakers during the transition to a “new energy economy.”
John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wachovia Bank, N.A., moderator
R. James Woolsey, Former Director of Central Intelligence

1:40-2:50 PM Concurrent Sessions I

The Changing Industry and Geopolitical Landscapes

“Change” is the key element for this session—how is it affecting the industrial environment? Identify the major global changes, including Asian vitality, European stagnation, and property rights.
David J. Wierz, Vice Chair, Corporate Planning Roundtable/Principal, The OCI Group, moderator
“The Changing Geopolitical Landscape”
David A. Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s
“How Intellectual Property Issues Are Impacting Globalization”
Marshall J. Schmitt, Partner, Jenner & Block
Sponsor: NABE Corporate Planning Roundtable


Educating the U.S. Workforce of the Next 50 Years

Panelists will discuss how we must educate and train children and youth to prepare them for 50-year careers.
Kathleen M. Camilli, President, Camilli Economics, LLC, moderator
Claire L. Gaudiani, Professor, New York University Center for Philanthropy and Fundraising
Arne Duncan, CEO, Chicago Public Schools
Robert F. Duvall, President and CEO, National Council on Economic Education

Recent Research in Regional Economics at the Federal Reserve Banks

Regions face different challenges from the nation. Find out how the federal reserve banks track and evaluate the changing conditions.
Richard L. Wobbekind, Chair, Regional Utility Roundtable/Associate Dean, University of Colorado, moderator
Howard J. Wall, Assistant Vice President/Regional Economics Adviser/Director, Center for Regional Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Andrew F. Haughwout, Research Officer, Business Conditions Function, Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Mine K. Yucel, Senior Economist/Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sponsor: NABE Regional Utility Roundtable

2:50-3:15 PM Networking Break
Sponsor: The Wall Street Journal

3:15-4:30 PM Concurrent Sessions II

The Long-term Energy Outlook: Are Higher Prices Here to Stay?

Panelists will review the current changing energy prices and their impact on economic performance.
Kris Kridel, Co-Anchor, WBBM Noon Business Hour, moderator
Guy F. Caruso, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Mike Zenker , Senior Director, North American Natural Gas, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

China and India in the Global Economy

Learn how these emerging economic giants are affecting everything from commodity prices to labor force development.
David W. Greising, Chicago Tribune, moderator
Yasheng Huang, Associate Professor of International Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management
Stoyan Tenev, Lead Economist, East Asia & Pacific, World Bank Group
Beth Anne Wilson , Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Sponsor: Motorola

Competitive Challenges Facing the Automotive Industry

In viewing the automotive industry as a microcosm for many industries, what can we learn from its errors and its successes?
Ernie Stokes, President, Canadian Association for Business Economics, moderator
Walter S. McManus, Director, Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation (OSAT) University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute
George Magliano, Director, Automotive Forecasting, Global Insight
Sponsor: Canadian Association for Business Economics

4:40- 5:40 Economic Impact of Hurrican Katrina

Harvey Rosenblum, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, moderator
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director, Congressional Budget Office
John C. Robertson, Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Loren C. Scott, President, Loren C. Scott Associates, Baton Rouge

6:00- 7:30 PM Welcome Reception
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Monday, September 26, 2005

7:00-7:45 AM Continental Breakfast
Sponsor: Wachovia Bank, N.A.

8:00-8:45 AM Opening Session

Michael Moskow has been president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for eleven years after a distinguished career in the public and private sectors and in academia. He is a current member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Kevin L. Kliesen , Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, presiding
Jason Benderly, Benderly Economics, introducing
Michael H. Moskow, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Sponsor: Benderly Economics

8:45-9:15 AM NABE Outlook

This session features the release of the NABE Outlook, the “closely watched survey of economists,” according to ABCNews.com. Find out about the latest thinking on the economy from NABE’s panel of professional macroeconomic forecasters. Produced quarterly, the survey is now in its 35 th year.We will also present the fifth annual NABE Outlook Award.
John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wachovia Bank N.A. , moderator
Stuart G. Hoffman, NABE Vice President/Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group

9:30-10:45 AM Concurrent Sessions III

The Impact of Changing International Trade on Mature U.S. Industries

This session will address the question: “What does the increasingly global economic environment mean for regional growth and the automotive and transportation industries?”
Catherine L. Mann, Chair, International Roundtable/Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, moderator
“Impact on U.S. Regional/Industry Growth”
Steven G. Cochrane, Managing Director, Economy.com
“Impact on the Global Automobile Industry”
Michael Robinet, Vice President, Global Forecast Services, CSM Worldwide
“Impact on U.S. Freight Flows—Ports, Rail, Trucking”
Patrick Casey, Director, Business Forecasting and Planning, TTX Company
Sponsor: International Roundtable

Health Economics Roundtable Session

Consumer-oriented Health Economics: Past, Present, and Future
Robert F. Graboyes, Visiting Associate Professor, University of Richmond, moderator
"Blue Cross Blue Shield Plans and the Consumer-Directed Marketplace"
James G. Rodgers, Blue Cross Blue Shield of America
"Hedging Chaotic Private Health Insurance Markets and the Uninsured"
James A. Hayes, Consultant, New Mexico
Debra Gold, Chicago Office Leader, Mercer Health and Benefits, Mercer Human Resources Consulting

Contributed Papers Session

Winners of the sixth annual contributed papers competition will present their papers.
Robert T. Crow, Editor, Business Economics, moderator
Thomas F. Siems, Senior Economist & Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Cliff Waldman, Economist, Manufacturers Alliance
Xiaobing Shuai, Senior Economist, Chmura Economics & Analytics

10:45-11:15 AM Networking Break
Sponsor: Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

11:15 AM-11:45 AM NABE Presidential Address

NABE President Rosemary Marcuss gives the 47th annual presidential address.
Stuart G. Hoffman, NABE Vice President/Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group, presiding
Rosemary D. Marcuss, NABE President/Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis

11:45 AM- 1:30 PM Luncheon -- Adam Smith Award
Sponsor: Global Insight

The NABE 24th annual Adam Smith Address Lecture will be given by Dale W. Jorgenson, Samuel W. Morris University Professor at Harvard University. Jorgenson has conducted groundbreaking research on information technology and economic growth, energy and the environment, tax policy and investment behavior, and comparative economic growth among nations. His collected papers are available in ten volumes published by MIT Press. Jorgenson’s forthcoming book, Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence, with Mun Ho and Kevin Stiroh, is his most recent effort to quantify the effect of information technology on the U.S. economy. A subsequent book will present the first full integration of U.S. official statistics on production, productivity, investment, and financial flows.

Jorgenson was awarded the American Economic Association (AEA) prestigious John Bates Clark Medal, for which the citation reads in part: “. . . he is preeminently a master of the territory between economics and statistics, where both have to be applied to the study of concrete problems.” Jorgenson served as President of AEA in 2000 and has held many other top university and professional positions.

“Potential Growth of the U.S. Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?”

Rosemary D. Marcuss, NABE President/Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis, presiding
Sara Johnson, Managing Director, Global Insight, introducing
Dale W. Jorgenson, Samuel W. Morris University Professor, Harvard University

1:30-2:30 PM CEO Roundtable

How does a bank deal with issues in a consolidating environment and with overseas branches? How does an organization build a business launched by deregulation, but still influenced by regulation, and with hundreds of players? The CEOs will respond to these questions and explain how firms respond to competitive challenges.
Carl R. Tannenbaum, Chief Economist, LaSalle Bank, moderator
Norman R. Bobins, President and CEO, LaSalle Bank Corporation
Christopher Lofgren, President and CEO, Schneider National, Inc.
Sponsor: LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO N.A.

2:30-3:00 PM Networking Break

3:00- 4:15 PM Concurrent Sessions IV

Weather Contracts

Businesses face unique risks due to weather. Weather conditions tend to affect volume and usage more than they affect price. An exceptionally warm winter, for example, can leave utility and energy companies with excess supplies of natural gas or oil. An exceptionally cold summer can leave hotel rooms and airline seats empty. Weather risk is also unique in that it is highly localized, cannot be controlled, and despite great advances in meteorological science, still cannot be predicted precisely or consistently. A panel of experts from AccuWeather, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Federal Reserve and Weather Risk Management Association will discuss weather and its role as a leading economic indicator.

Felix Carabello, Associate Director, Alternative Investment Products, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), moderator
Paul Murray, Munich Capital Markets
Brian O’Hearne, President, Weather Risk Management Association

Housing in the CPI: What are We Measuring?

Maurine Haver, President, Haver Analytics, moderator
David S. Johnson, Assistant Commissioner of Consumer Prices & Price Indexes, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Joseph G. Carson, Director, Global Economic Research, Alliance Capital
Charles Steindel, Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Health Economics: Medicaid Spending Explosion: Who Will Pay the Cost?

James A. Hayes, Albuquerque, New Mexico, moderator
Devon Herrick, Senior Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis
Michael Bond, Senior Fellow in Health Care Policy, The Buckeye Institute (Ohio) and Professor, Department of Finance, Cleveland State University.
Sponsor: Health Economic Roundtable

4:15- 4:45 Networking Break
Sponsor: National Federation of Independent Business

4:45-5:45 PM Entitlements Reform

The panelists will address the question, “How do you build or reform a retirement system with a growing, aging population?”
Kevin L. Kliesen, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, introduction
Steve Kerch, Personal Finance Report/Real Estate Editor, MarketWatch, moderator
Thomas R. Saving, Trustee, Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds/Professor of Economics, Texas A & M University
John C. Rother, Director of Policy and Strategy, AARP

5:45-6:15 PM NABE Business Meeting

Meet the new NABE board of directors and officers of the NABE Roundtables. Learn what we’ve accomplished over the past year. Help plan for the future and shape your professional association.

6:15-7:30 PM Networking Reception
Sponsor: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

7:30-9:30 PM Small Dinner Events

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

7:15-8:45 AM Breakfast
Sponsor: FedEx Corporation

8:00-8:15 AM

Rosemary D. Marcuss , NABE President/Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis, presiding
Welcome to Chicago
Richard M. Daley, Mayor, City of Chicago

8:15- 8:50 AM

The chair of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers will brief us on his views of economic policy and where the U.S. economy is headed.
Gene Huang, Chief Economist, FedEx Corporation, introducing
Ben S. Bernanke, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

9:00-10:15 AM Concurrent Sessions IV

Labor Force Program

Panelists will look at alternative ways to find and hire workers including job postings through the Internet now that there are few help-wanted ads. They will address finding and using temporary help and explain the employment numbers we don’t get through the BLS.
Steve Liesman, Senior Economic Reporter, CNBC, moderator
David Rosa, Senior Vice President, Global Brand Manager, Monster Worldwide, Inc.
Tracy Shilobrit, Director, Corporate and Global Communications, Manpower, Inc.

International Raw Materials Prices

The session will cover global raw materials issues including the European perspective and China’s influence as an elephant. This session will be particularly helpful to those advising purchasing managers or wanting to gain a deeper understanding of issues driving raw materials prices.

Lloyd C. Nace, Strategic Business Analyst, American Standard
Heinz-Jurgen Buchner , Vice President, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG Thomas Kevin Swift, Chief Economist, American Chemistry Council
Sponsor: Manufacturing Roundtable

NBER Session: Financing Retirement: Key Issues"

In this traditional annual meeting session, panelists from the National Bureau of Economic Research will review the recent research in pensions, 401Ks, and defined benefit vs. defined contribution programs.
Richard B. Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley, moderator
Andrew A. Samwick, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College/former Chief Economist, Council of Economic Advisers
David A. Wise, Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University
Sponsor: National Bureau of Economic Research

10;15-10:45 AM Networking Break
Sponsor: Economy.com and Free Market Inc.

10:45 AM-12:00 PM Concurrent Sessions V

Youth Human Capital and Economic Growth

Future growth and competitiveness depend directly on current human
capital development. This session will examine most recent findings.
Robert H. Dugger, Managing Director, Tudor Investment Corporation,
moderator
James J. Heckman, Professor of Economics, University of Chicago,
Nobel Laureate in Economics
Robert Grunewald, Economic Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Ross Thompson, Professor of Psychology, University of California at
Davis
Sponsor: PNC Financial Services Group

Evolution of Financial Markets

The panelists will focus on the changing nature of financial markets, including how we finance business activity and the role of the U.S. SEC.
Richard A. Brown, Chief Economist, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, moderator
Randall S. Kroszner, Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago
Paul S. Atkins, Commissioner, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Sponsor: Financial Roundtable

Perspectives on Outlook & Financial Markets from Europe

Europe is off to a weak start in 2005. Speakers will discuss whether the Euro area can get off the two-percent growth path.
Hubert Fromlet, Chief Economist, Swedbank, moderator
“Euroland: Slow Growth As Far As the Eye Can See”
Joachim Scheide, Professor, Kiel Institute of World Economics/Head, Business Cycle and Forecasting Department
“Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Europe”
John Calverly, Chief Economist and Strategist, American Express, London
Sponsor: Swedbank and NabeEurope

12:15-1:45 PM Luncheon
Sponsor: FactSet

Diane C. Swonk, Chief Economist/Senior Managing Director, Mesirow Financial, presiding
Sara B Potter, CFA, Product Manager Economic Data, FactSet Research Systems, Inc, introducing
Desiree G. Rogers, President, Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas, Chicago

1:45-2:45 PM Alan Greenspan Address

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve System and a former NABE President will provide his views on the economy. The session will include a question-and-answer period.
Rosemary Marcuss, President, NABE/Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis, presiding
Diane C. Swonk, Chief Economist/Senior Managing Director, Mesirow Financial, introducing
Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Federal Reserve System
Live address via satellite

3:00 –4:30 PM Visit to Chicago Mercantile Exchange

SOLD OUT
For more than 100 years, futures and options trading occurred on the floors of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Today, electronic trading has taken hold, as currently over 70 percent of trades at CME take place via a computer somewhere around the world. NABE conference participants can visit CME on Tuesday, September 27 at 3 p.m. to learn how technology has transformed CME into the largest diversified financial exchange in the world. Space is limited, so please reply as soon as possible.
Limited to 25 participants. Technology Roundtable members register by July 31; tour open to other annual meeting attendees after that date.
Sponsor: Technology Roundtable
SOLD OUT