Wednesday, March 24

5:00- 6:30 pm

Welcome Reception

Capital Hilton Hotel

Thursday, March 25

Fiscal Policy Challenges

Policymakers are aware of the economic challenges of transitioning to less stimulative near-term policies while simultaneously addressing the difficult long-term budget realities implied by public commitments to current and future retirees, desires for lower tax rates, and sharply rising discretionary spending. Our keynote speaker will identify the fiscal policy challenges faced by the United States over the next couple of decades.

Duncan Meldrum, NABE President and Chief Economists, Air Products and Chemicals, presiding
David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States

Health Policy Reform vs Incremental Changes: What’s Cost Effective for the U.S.?

Health policy is an important topic in this year's Presidential campaign and nothing could be more timely than an expert view of policy proposals in the wake of last year's Medicare law. Are wholesale changes to our health care system in the offing? Or will incremental changes continue to be at the forefront of policymakers' agenda? We’ll hear from one of the top health policy experts on what type of policy changes are appropriate, and what is cost effective.

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Chief Economist, Ford Motor Company, presiding
Uwe E. Reinhardt, Professor, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

Partner: Ford Motor Company

China’s Pro-Growth Policies: How Far and How Fast?

The speakers will share their insights regarding the business fundamentals in China. They will address the question of what sort of policy adjustments are likely going forward that may help businesses anticipate key changes in the business environment in China. Is there unwarranted euphoria over the sheer size of the market and less discussion about the revenue and/or earnings potential?

Jenny Lin, Senior Asia-Pacific Economist, Ford Motor Company, presiding
Nicholas R. Lardy, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics
Greg Fager, Institute for International Finance, Inc.

LUNCHEON
Monetary Policy in Transition

In the not too distant future, monetary policy will make the sometimes difficult transition to a more neutral stance as the expansion becomes self-sustaining and less stimulus becomes desirable. Complicating this transition will be the uncertain, but potentially significant, changes in underlying productivity growth, and potentially sharp changes in fiscal policy. At the same time the Fed will likely continue to refine its practices to improve its effectiveness, especially in a low inflation/low interest rate environment. How the Fed meets these, as well as other challenges, will importantly influence how the economy fares in the years ahead. Governor Kohn will present his views on how the Fed will meet the many challenges that lay ahead.

Duncan Meldrum, NABE President and Chief Economists, Air Products and Chemicals, presiding

Carl R. Tannenbaum, Chief Economist, LaSalle Banks/ABN AMRO NA, introduction
Donald L. Kohn, Member, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System

Partner: Standard & Poor’s

1 Fiscal Stress on State Governments

The session will focus on a current discussion of how states are coping with the fiscal stress, a look at how long before the situation improves, and an examination of whether states actually have a structural deficit or surplus. Included in the presentation will be some discussion of what are states doing to "update antiquated tax systems".

Marshall Vest, AUBER President and Director, Economic & Business Research, University of Arizona, presiding
Roger E. Brinner, Partner & Chief Economist, The Parthenon Group

Sponsored by the AUBER and the Regional/Utility Roundtable

2 Understanding Social Security Reform Options

Some experts estimate that the present value difference between federal commitments to social security and other entitlement programs and expected tax revenues is $44 trillion. Our three expert panelists will focus on the long-term solvency of social security. Doug Holtz-Eakin will discuss the outlook under current law, while Eric Engen and Peter Orzag will present their alternative social-security reform proposals.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director, Congressional Budget Office, presiding
Eric M. Engen, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Peter R. Orszag, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Sponsored by the Financial Roundtable

1 Legacy Costs: Pension and Health Benefits Reform

Legacy costs – both pension and health care obligations – are rising at a rapid pace, driven by strong growth in health care costs and more moderate projected returns on pension portfolios. With aging baby boomers tipping the scale between the number workers supporting each retiree, this panel will address how companies and the Federal government will address these challenges. Will they wait until it's too late, making the problems' solution more costly for society?

Richard B. Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley, presiding
Dallas Salisbury, President and CEO, Employee Benefit Research Institute
Steven Kandarian, Executive Director, Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
Britton Harris, Chief Investment Officer, Verizon Investment Manager and Vice Chair, Committee on Investment of Employee Benefit Assets

Sponsored by the Corporate Planning Roundtable

2 Manufacturing Initiatives: Weighing the Costs and Benefits

At least one Democratic candidate has called for an American industrial policy and the Bush Administration seems to have embraced some elements of industrial policy--for example, trade actions that offer protection to the steel and textile industries, and the creation of the position of “manufacturing czar” in the Department of Commerce. Is a consensus emerging on the need for policies that favor, protect, or encourage specific industries, their shareholders, and their workers? Our speakers will address these issues.

James Meil, Chief Economics, Eaton Corporation, presiding
Kristin Forbes, Member, Council of Economic Advisers
Robert Kuttner, Co-Editor of The American Prospect

Sponsored by the Manufacturing Roundtable

Views from the Treasury and CEA

Treasury Secretary Snow and CEA Chairman Mankiw will describe the President's economic policy initiatives and how the state of the economy has figured into their formulation.

Duncan H. Meldrum, NABE President, presidingThe Honorable The Honorable John W. Snow, Secretary, U.S. Department of Treasury
The Honorable N. Gregory Mankiw, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

Reception
Cash Room, U.S. Department of the Treasury

Please join us for a reception in the famous Cash Room, U.S. Department of the Treasury. The Cash Room opened in June 1869 for the transaction of the government's financial business. The need for a bank in the Treasury Building arose indirectly from a reform of the country's monetary system in 1846 and from subsequent developments during the Civil War. The architect of the Cash Room, Alfred B. Mullett, designed it as a roofed version of an Italian palazzo, a traditional bank design throughout Europe.

Remarks by Mark Warshawsky, Acting Assistance Secretary for Economic Policy

Partner: Cambridge Consumer Credit Index

Friday, March 26, 2004

Breakfast
U.S. Trade Policy

U.S. Trade Policy? We've come a long way since the passage of NAFTA 10 years ago and now we look forward to a range of trade policy issues that confront businesses faced with shifting cost structures and intense competition from foreign competitors. At issue are jobs, market access, and, of course, free and fair trade.

Duncan Meldrum, NABE President and Chief Economist, Air Products and Chemicals, presiding

Harvey Rosenblum, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, introduction
Jeffrey J. Schott, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics

Partner: BMO Financial Group

Federal Health Policy

Federal health policy has made great strides recently, and the passage of the Medicare reform bill has increased the private sector's role in that important program. Further, the introduction of health savings accounts, coupled with the addition of a prescription drug benefit for our senior citizens, represent a substantive commitment that the Administration and Congress are pursuing to improve health care quality, access, and cost effectiveness.

Diane C. Swonk, Chief Economist, Bank One, presiding
Mark McClellan, Director, Centers For Medicare & Medicaid Services (invited)

Policies to Promote a Healthy Banking Sector

In an era of record profitability, the banking industry continues to undergo far-reaching changes associated with inter-state branching, new combinations of financial activities, and new information technologies. These changes pose a number of important regulatory challenges, including: how best to deal with "megabanks" of unprecedented size and complexity, whether combinations of banks and non-financial commercial enterprises should be permitted, and whether and how the financial services regulatory system should be revised.

Richard Brown, Chief Economist, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, presiding
Donald E. Powell, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

1 Consumer-Driven Health Care

Some companies provide employees a personal health account from which they pay medical expenses directly. These accounts allow consumers to control a portion of their own health care dollars and pay directly for medical care. Many believe these accounts have the potential to revolutionize our health care system.

Robert F. Graboyes, Secretary/Treasurer, Health Economics Roundtable and Professor, University of Richmond, presiding
John Goodman, Chair, Health Economics Roundtable and President, National Center for Policy Analysis
Ben Cutler, Chairman, Fortis Health

Sponsored by the Health Economics Roundtable

2 Does Exchange Rate Management Have a Role in the Macro Policy Tool Kit?

Economic fundamentals usually dominate exchange rate moves, but this hasn’t stopped policymakers from attempting to influence exchange rates, sometimes over considerable periods. Two experts will discuss both the fundamentals underlying the dollar’s recent decline and the efficacy of attempts to manage currencies.

Kevin L. Kliesen, Economist,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, presiding
Catherine Mann, Institute for International Economics
Michael R. Rosenberg, Managing Director and Global Head of FX Research, Deutsche Bank

Sponsored by the International Roundtable

Luncheon
Improving Corporate Governance: An SEC Perspective

Duncan Meldrum, NABE President and Chief Economists, Air Products and Chemicals, presiding
Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, introduction
Harvey J. Goldschmid, Commissioner, SEC

Partner: Financial Times

Economic Impact of Offshore Outsourcing

Offshore outsourcing of jobs is currently one of the most visible issues in the popular press and in policy circles as many occupations in the United States, particularly in technology, have disappeared only to reappear elsewhere in the world. The speakers will address the trade and distributional issues and what, if anything, policymakers might consider in response.

Chris Swann, Chair, Technology Roundtable and Senior Consultant, Global Insight, presiding
Lael Brainard, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Obie G. Whichard, Chief, International Investment Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Thomas F. Siems, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank

Sponsored by the AUBER and the Technology Roundtable

The Uses of Federal and State Statistics

For economists using Federal data, these presentations by Bureau of Labor Statistics analysts will provide valuable insights on current trends and innovations from Federal agencies. Tom Nardone (BLS) will present on reconciling payroll and household employment statistics using the Current Population Survey (CPS) and Current Employment Statistics Survey (CES); and Rick Clayton (BLS) will present on the new BLS QCEW quarterly press release called "County Employment and Wages" and its uses.

J. Bruce Kellison, Associate Director, Bureau of Business Research, University of Texas at Austin, presiding
“ Reconciling Payroll and Household Employment Statistics”
Tom Nardone, Bureau of Labor Statistics
“‘ County Employment and Wages’ and Its Uses”
Rick Clayton, Bureau of Labor Statistics