Program for the 2010 NABE Economic Policy Conference

The New Normal? Policy Choices After the Great Recession

The program for the 2010 NABE Economic Policy Conference is still being developed. Check back often for more information.

Program updated: March 3, 2010

Sunday, March 7

5:00 - 6:30 PM
Welcome Reception

Sweeping views of Georgetown, the Potomac River and the Washingon skyline provide a stunning backdrop for the Welcome Reception, held on the top floor of the Key Bridge Marriott. Enjoy your favorite beverage and hors d’ouevres while catching up with old friends and making new contacts. Entertainment provided by
the NABE jazz musicians.

Sponsored by AUBER

7:00 - 9:00 PM
Get Connected Happy Hour

Immediately following the Welcome Reception, join Get Connected for a networking event.
Location: Piola, 1550 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, VA 22209

Monday, March 8

8:00 - 8:30 AM
Financial Regulatory Reform

Sheila Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

8:30-9:30 AM
Mid-Term Elections: Analysis and Outlook

Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, moderator
Charlie Cook, The Cook Political Report
Greg Valliere, Soleil Group

Sponsored by Mesirow Financial

9:30-10:15 AM
The Spiraling US Debt: Tameable or Troubling?

Sara Johnson, Managing Director, IHS Global Insight, introduction
Douglas Elmendorf, Director, Congressional Budget Office

Sponsored by IHS Global Insight

10:15-10:45 AM
Networking Break

Sponsored by Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

Poster Session

Sponsored by a grant from The NABE Foudnation

10:45 - 11:45 AM
Will There Be a Productivity Revolution in Health Care?

Health care is poised to undergo a revolution in productivity. With changes in organization and financing of care, we could improve productivity in medical practices, and for the system as a whole. The talk will describe how health care productivity can be increased, and the paths that might be taken with or without reform.
Paul Hughes-Cromwick, Altarum Institute, moderator
David Cutler, Harvard University
Linda Fishman, America Hospital Association

Sponsored by Altarum Institute and the Altarum Health Policy Forum

12:00 - 1:30 PM
Luncheon: Is the Global Economy Headed for a Lost Decade? A European Perspective

Jürgen Stark, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

Lunch sponsored by Fidelity Investments

1:45-3:00 PM
Concurrent Sessions I

A) Strengthening the Nation’s Entrepreneurs: Small Business Challenges and Opportunities after the Great Recession

More than ever, policymakers are looking towards entrepreneurship as a means for job creation, innovation, and economic growth. This session will explore the various challenges and opportunities that will face small business owners as they attempt to regroup after the economic downturn.
Robert Strom, Director of Policy and Research, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, moderator
James Smith, Parsec Financial
Alicia Robb, Senior Research Fellow, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation
John Haltiwanger, Professor, University of Maryland at College Park, and Research Associate, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau

Sponsored by The Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation

B) Real Estate Outlook after Government Intervention

Direct government intervention in housing finance reached an unprecedented level in 2009 through HAMP, HARP, H4H, TALF, PPIP and a slew of regulatory decisions. The panel will discuss how the transition back to private sector dominance can occur and what is developing for the future regulatory environment.
Jesse M. Abraham, Vice President, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, moderator
Bert Ely, Principal, Ely & Company
Howard Glaser, Principal, The Glaser Group
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of US Fixed Income and Securitized Strategy, Barclays Capital

Sponsored by NABE Real Estate/Construction Roundtable

C) Climate Change / Cap & Trade

The U.S. Congress is currently developing major energy legislation aimed a reducing greenhouse gas emissions though a Cap & Trade regime for the first time in history. In the summer of 2009, the House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill. Action now has move to the Senate. If enacted, this sweeping energy reform could significantly affect both the cost and sources of energy that fuel the U.S. economy as well as the international competitiveness of U.S. industry. This session will address some of the key issues currently being debated in the Senate concerning the design of a clean energy and climate bill, such as the potential role of low- and no-carbon technologies, the use of domestic and international offsets, and other cost containment measures. The potential economic impacts of climate change policy on the future of the U.S. economy will also be discussed.
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Chief Economist, Ford Motor Co., introduction
David Huether, Chief Economist, National Association of Manufacturers, moderator
Margo Thorning, Chief Economist, American Council for Capital Formation
Stephen Seidel, Vice President - Policy Analysis & General Counsel, Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Sponsored by Ford Credit

3:15 - 4:30 PM
Concurrent Sessions II

A) Is the Dollar Doomed as a Reserve Currency?

Investor concerns about continued large budget deficits and runaway inflation have led many to question the dollar’s status as the world’s principal reserve currency. Indeed, some important developing countries have recently put forth proposals for a new international currency that is meant to compete with the greenback as a reserve currency. Is the dollar doomed as a reserve currency in the short run? What about the long run? What, if anything, can the administration and the Federal Reserve do to maintain the reserve currency status of the greenback?
Stuart Mackintosh, The Group of Thirty, moderator
Steve Hanke, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute
Clay Lowery, Managing Director, Glover Park Group, and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, 2005-2009
John Williamson, Senior Fellow, The Peterson Institute for International Economics

Sponsored by NABE International Roundtable

B) Transforming the Defense Industry in the 21st Century

The U.S. defense industry has been engaged in significant transformation in a variety of areas, which parallels many of the changes in the private sector. The defense industrial base consolidated through a wave of mergers following the end of the Cold War and may consolidate further if the defense budget is reduced. Defense contractors have been faced with the need to produce different types of weapons to fight a new type of threat in the form of terrorist groups. The Department of Defense, at the same time, has looked for new sources of R&D other than the traditional, large defense contractors. The sector has faced a tension between the need to collaborate with foreign defense firms against a common threat, and yet the need to preserve secrecy on certain weapons systems components. Congressional representatives have also become involved with defense contracts as they fought to preserve jobs in their home states. Finally, the decision-making and information-gathering processes of DoD changed with the move toward more transparent processes and auditable financial statements. This panel examines the changing landscape and its implications for the ability of DoD to fulfill its objectives and the implications for national security, business, and the budget deficit.
Dr. Don Losman, National Defense University, moderator
Dr. Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Department of the Navy
Admiral Joseph P. Mulloy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Budget

C) Government Stimulus: When and How Should Businesses be Incentivized?

The session examines the role of government stimulus at the federal, state and local levels seeking to answer many of the issues that swirl around these programs. Each presenter in this session will focus on one of the three levels of government and discuss examples of the types of policies implemented by these governments to help stimulate their respective economies. Some of the questions to be addressed: What are the theories behind the incentives? What are the purposes/goals of the incentives? How well do they work? What are the alternatives? What about opportunity costs? Should these policies be used at all?
Sean Snaith, Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness, University of Central Florida, moderator
William A. Galston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Janet Harrah, Center for Economic Analysis and Development, Northern Kentucky University
Jeff Rexhausen, Economic Center for Education and Research, University of Cincinnati

Sponsored by AUBER

4:30 - 5:00 PM
Networking Break

Sponsored by CEIC Data

5:00 - 5:45 PM
Implementing the Fed's Balance Sheet Policies

Regina Schleiger, Medley Global Advisors, introduction
Brian Sack, Executive Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sponsored by Medley Global Advisors

6:30 - 8:00 PM
Reception at the Residence of the French Ambassador

Reception hosted by His Excellency, Pierre Vimont, Ambassador of France to the United States, at the residence.

Tuesday, March 9

8:00 - 9:15 AM
CEA Breakfast

Christina Romer, Chair, President's Council of Economic Advisers

9:30 - 10:20 AM
A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Charles Evans, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

10:20 - 10:45 AM
Networking Break

Sponsored by Greenwood and Associates

10:45 - 12:00 Noon
Concurrent Sessions III

A) From Synchronized Recovery to De-synchronized Exit Strategies

The global recovery is a well synchronized one. We are less assured about the exit strategies for both monetary and fiscal policies. This trend has already emerged, with central bank policy action in largely commodity-based economies. The less synchronized exit strategies will likely have important impact on economic growth and notably the re-balancing of global growth, asset prices and currencies.
David Kotok, Co-founder and CIO of Cumberland Advisors, moderator
William G. Gale, Brookings Institution
Joseph E. Gagnon, Senior Fellow, Petersen Institute for International Economics
Gabriel Stein, Director, Lombard Street Research

Sponsored by Cumberland Advisors

B) Innovation, Technology, Productivity: Can We, Will We, and What will it Take to Recover from 2009?

Capital Expenditures were down significantly in 2009, but productivity did better than in past economic recessions. What does productivity look like going forward and can it overcome the capital losses of 2009? Moreover, are we capturing the right inputs to accurately measure productivity? What role does tech spending play as we move into the next decaded?
Shawn DuBravac, Chief Economist, Consumer Electronics Association, moderator
Robert Atkinson, President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
Mark Doms, Chief Economist, Department of Commerce
Adam Saunders, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Sponsored by NABE Technology Roundtable

C) State of the States

State and local governments are at the mercy of the U.S. and world economy. Most state and local governments must balance budgets. What choices will they make? What is the role of the Federal government? Panelists will explore the answers to these questions among others.
Andrew Brod, Director of the Center for Business and Economic Research, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, moderator
Michael Bird, Senior Federal Affairs Counsel, National Conference of State Legislatures
Donald J. Boyd, Senior Fellow, Nelson J. Rockefeller Institute of Government

Sponsored by AUBER

12:15 - 1:45 PM
Luncheon: A View from the Chairman and CEO of Caterpillar, Inc.

Jim Owens, Chairman and CEO, Caterpillar, Inc.

Sponsored by Point Loma Nazarene University

2:00 - 3:15 PM
Concurrent Sessions IV

A) Financial Regulation After the Crisis

The economy has witnessed significant changes in the global financial system over the past year, with unprecedented regulatory intervention in the wake of a significant crisis in housing, credit, and consumer confidence. The purpose of this panel is to examine some of the regulatory changes in the financial markets, to assess their impact, and to discuss additional policy initiatives going forward. What will be the long-term consequences of the financial crisis for the regulatory regime in the US and in overseas countries? What are the new precedents set for how the US and European nations will handle subsequent financial crises? Was coordinated action on the part of the US and of European countries helpful and should we expect that type of reaction to be seen again as new financial crises unfold over the years? How do changes in the current regulatory regime in response to the crisis parallel prior changes in regulatory regimes historically in response to crises?
Nayantara Hensel, Chief Economist, Department of the Navy, moderator
Ben Friedman, Harvard University
Frank Hatheway, Chief Economist, NASDAQ OMX

Sponsored by NABE Financial Roundtable

B) The Global Commodities Outlook: Boom or Bust?

After plummeting in late 2008, commodity prices have rebounded strongly in anticipation of rising global demand. Are we entering a sustained boom, or will the price rally end in a bust? Panelists will discuss what's driving commodity prices and the medium-term market outlooks for oil, metals, and other key commodities. They will also explore the interplay between physical market fundamentals and investors' portfolio choices, the role of the dollar's exchange rate, and rising influence of China and other emerging markets.
Kathleen DeBoer, OECD, moderator
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
John Mothersole, Principal , Industry Practices Group - IHS Global Insight

3:15 - 3:45 PM
Networking Break

3:45 - 4:45 PM
The Budget View from the Congress

Stan Collender, Managing Director, Qorvis Communications, moderator
Matt Salomon, Chief Economist, Senate Budget Committee
Timothy P. Flynn, Chief Economist, House Budget Committee

4:45 PM
Adjourn

** Invited

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