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Session 11: Spillovers from Housing to Consumer Spending
A major current concern is the possibility that weakness in housing may result in sustained softness in consumer spending, the largest single component of economic activity. This session examines this concern, taking into account the many channels through which housing and consumption are intertwined, including wealth, credit, and confidence effects
Presentations
Speakers
Paul Bennett
New York Stock Exchange
Paul B. Bennett is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of NYSE Euronext.
As Chief Economist of NYSE Euronext, Paul Bennett is responsible for analytic support for the Exchange's various business and public-policy activities, and for support of academic and other professional research into equities market issues.
Before joining the NYSE in 2001, Mr. Bennett was a senior officer and economist of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he had worked since 1978. At the Fed, Mr. Bennett headed the Capital Markets Research division, was editor of the Bank’s research journal and, prior to that, vice president for Fedwire Funds and Securities Transfers, among other responsibilities.
Mr. Bennett has published numerous papers on finance, economics, and securities markets in both academic and practitioner journals.
Mr. Bennett holds a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University and a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago.
Peter Hooper
Deutsche Bank Securities
Peter Hooper joined Deutsche Bank Securities in the fall of 1999, first as Chief International Economist; he shortly thereafter assumed responsibilities as Chief US Economist; he became Chief Economist in 2006. Dr. Hooper frequently comments on US and global economic and financial developments in the news media.
Prior to joining the firm, Dr. Hooper enjoyed a distinguished 26-year career at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. While rising to near the top of the Fed staff, he held numerous positions, including as an economist on the FOMC and as Deputy Director of the Division of International Finance. In doing so, he developed an informed view of the Fed's policy making process.
Dr. Hooper earned a BA in Economics (cum laude) from Princeton University and an MA and Ph.D. in Economics from University of Michigan. He has published numerous books, journal articles, and reviews on economics and policy analysis.
Charles Steindel
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Charles Steindel is a Senior Vice President in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function. He oversees the Group's analysis and forecasts of U.S. economic conditions. His research interests include consumer spending and saving and productivity growth. He has served as president of the Money Marketeers of New York University and the Forecasters Club of New York. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University and his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
His fields of interest include: Chain weighting measuring gdp, Consumer behavior, Cycle capital spending balance sheet, Growth and Productivity, Inflation estimates productivity growth, Investment, Manufacturing, Private saving, Productivity growth, Saving, Saving economic growth, Stock market consumption, Tax rebate.
Chris Varvares
Macroeconomic Advisers
Chris Varvares is President of Macroeconomic Advisers, a company he co-founded with Joel Prakken and Laurence Meyer as Laurence H. Meyer & Associates in 1982. The firm became Macroeconomic Advisers in June of 1996 when Dr. Meyer left the firm to join the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Meyer returned to the firm in the summer of 2002 following his term at the Fed.
Mr. Varvares has over 25 years of experience in macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, both as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers (1982 to present) and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982). While at the Council, he served as a member of the U.S. delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Mr. Varvares is the Vice President (9/2007-9/2008) and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics, served as President of the St. Louis chapter, and is a member of the American Economic Association. He serves as a member of Time Magazine’s Board of Economists, is a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board, and has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum.
He and the other principals of Macroeconomic Advisers serve as consultants to key agencies of the U.S., Canadian, Japanese, and U.K. governments, major trade associations, and private corporations and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. The firm is recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the U.S. economy. A 2006 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found that Macroeconomic Advisers had the best forecasting track record of any forecaster in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators panel over the 19 years included in the study. The firm also won the 2006 Annual Forecasting Award of the National Association of Business Economics and twice has won the Annual Forecasting Award for the highest forecast accuracy among participants in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and would have been the only three-time winner of the award if not for a rule that precluded winning in two consecutive years. Macroeconomic Advisers is also a prominent participant in the debates over the macroeconomic effects of federal budget and tax policy, and monetary policy.
Mr. Varvares holds a B.A. in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training in economics from Washington University in St. Louis.
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