Housing Starts
The Graph of the Week is the NABE Outlook Panel's forecast of Housing starts, from the November 2006 NABE Outlook. From the survey:
The outlook for housing has deteriorated a bit. The NABE panel has lowered its projection for housing starts in both 2006 and 2007 by 100,000 units since the September survey; the current projections are for 1.8 million starts in 2006 and 1.6 million in 2007. As a consequence, residential investment is now expected to fall by 5.5% in 2007; the previous call was for a 3.8% drop.
Nevertheless, the view is that housing will bottom out in 2007, according to most of the economists, with only 10% believing that the downturn will extend beyond that time. Half of the members who expect a stabilization next year look for the low point to be reached in the middle of 2007, with the rest evenly split between the beginning and end of the year.
NABE members can read more in the full NABE Outlook. There is a summary available for the public.