Headline CPI
This graph shows the Headline CPI forecast from the September 2006 NABE Outlook:
The NABE panel raised its forecast of inflation. The upward revision in the expected growth of unit labor costs was reflected in sharp upward revisions to expected inflation. The NABE panel now expects the GDP price index to rise 3.1% this year and 2.4% next year versus 2.7 and 2.2% in the May survey, respectively. Similarly, the fourth quarter-over-fourth quarter CPI forecast was raised to 3.3% in 2006 and 2.4% in 2007, from 2.5% and 2.3% respectively, in the prior survey.
In a new question about long-term inflation expectations, the NABE panel expects core PCE inflation to average 2.0% and core CPI inflation to average 2.3% over the next 5 years, both near the upper end of what is widely perceived to be the Fed’s implicit inflation comfort zone.
Find out more about the panelist's economic forecast in the NABE Outlook .