Quarterly Forecast, Civilian Unemployment Rate
With the Employment Situation being released this week, The Graph of the Week is the quarterly forecast of the civilian unemployment rate. The median forecast from the survey is the blue line in the middle. The average of the five lowest forecasts is the red line, and the average of the five highest forecasts is shown in green. From the survey
Job growth is now on a steady footing. Except for a third-quarter slowdown related to a reversal of Censusrelated hiring, job gains are expected to remain robust throughout the forecast horizon, as output gains remain steady but productivity gains progressively slow. The jobless rate is forecast to steadily decline to 9.4 percent by yearend 2010 and 8.5 percent by year-end 2011, though it remains high by historical standards and is ranked by panelists as their second greatest “concern.” Additionally, NABE panelists increased their estimate of the unemployment rate consistent with full employment to 5.5 percent from 5.0 percent previously.
NABE members can read the full survey, and download the data, online. There is a summary available to the public.
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