Employment Change Forecast
With major employment reports being released this week (see the Economic Calendar) the Graph of the Week is the forecast of the average monthly change in non-farm employment, from the November 2009 NABE Outlook. From the survey:
The recovery will not remain “jobless” for long. With more than 7.3 million jobs lost since December 2007, NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter followed by a “bottom” in the first quarter of 2010 and gains thereafter. Still, given the severity of employment losses during the past two years, most panelists (61 percent) do not expect a complete recovery of the previously lost jobs until 2012. Additionally, the unemployment rate is predicted to remain stubbornly high, averaging 9.6 percent in the final quarter of next year. When asked to rank “concerns” over the next five-year period, panelists ranked high unemployment second only to the federal deficit.
NABE member can read the full NABE Outlook here. For the public, a summary is online.
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