Quarterly GDP Forecast
The Graph of the Week is the forecast of quarterly GDP growth from the November 2009 NABE Outlook. The blue bars show the forecast from the October survey, released at the Annual Meeting, while the red bars show the most recent forecast. As you can see, the NABE Outlook panel has gotten slightly more optimistic in the last month. From the survey:
After declaring in October that the Great Recession of 2008-2009 was over, the NABE forecast panel is now boosting its expectations for growth. The fourth quarter of 2009 is now slated for a 3.0 percent pace of real GDP growth and 2010 is predicted to experience a gain of 3.2 percent over its four quarters. For the two years combined, growth is expected to be one-half of a percentage point above the forecast made in October. Economic growth is projected to slightly exceed its trend pace—which NABE panelists estimate at 2.7 percent—over the next five quarters. Real GDP growth should also be enough to recover losses from the recession and return output to an all-time high by the end of 2010.
NABE member can read the full NABE Outlook here. For the public, a summary is online.
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