When will payrolls surpass their 2007Q4 peak?
The Graph of the Week ask when in the next recovery will payrolls finally surpass their 2007Q4 peak, as forecast by the NABE Outlook panel in May 2009. No members predicted 2010, and over 60% forecast that it would be later than 2011. From the survey:
Labor market conditions are expected to deteriorate further, with additional, but decreasing job losses through year-end. A total of roughly 4 1⁄2 million jobs are expected to be lost in 2009, driving the unemployment rate to 9.8% by year-end. Modest job gains in 2010 will help reduce the unemployment rate to 9.3% by the end of next year.
NABE members can read the whole report, and download the spreadsheet containing the data, here. There is a summary available to the public.