Quarterly GDP Forecast
The Graph of the Week is the quarterly GDP Growth forecast from the May 2008 NABE Outlook, showing both the median forecast and the range of forecasts. From the outlook:
The NABE panel continues to expect little economic growth in the first half of 2008 and has cut its expectations for the second half. The economists surveyed look for real GDP to grow at a meager 0.4% annual rate in the second quarter, after two straight quarters of output expanding at a 0.6% pace. The panel is still fairly evenly split on whether the current weak episode will be put on the books as a recession. A total of 56% believes that a recession has already begun or will develop in 2008, compared with 45% in the February survey. Whatever its name, the panel expects only modest near-term improvement. The current forecast shows real GDP growing at an annualized rate averaging just 2.1% in the second half of 2008, down substantially from February’s call for growth of 2.8% during that period. The outlook for 2009 was also marked down slightly, with the group seeing growth of 2.7% over the course of next year, compared with 2.9% in the last report.
NABE members can read the full report here. A summary is available to the public.