GDP Forecast
The Graph of the Week comes from the February 2008 NABE Outlook and shows the quarterly GDP forecast, both the median and the range of forecasts.
From the survey:
The NABE panel expects little economic growth in the first half of 2008, but anticipates a significant pickup in the second half. The economists surveyed look for real GDP, which grew at just a 0.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2007, to grow at a scant 0.4% rate in the first quarter of 2008, with 1% growth expected in the second quarter. Some 45% of our panel believes that a recession will have occurred by the end of this year, although a majority of those believe the downturn will be relatively muted. (See special questions below). Fiscal and monetary stimulus is expected to boost growth in the second half to a 2.8% annual rate, bringing growth for the year to 1.8% (on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis). This forecast is down significantly from the 2.6% growth projected in November. The 2009 outlook, shown for the first time, calls for real GDP to grow 2.9% over the course of the year.
NABE members can read the full survey here. A summary is available to the public.