Recession Risk
The Graph of the Week comes from the November 2007 NABE Outlook and shows the probability of a recession over the next year. According to the survey:
About three-fifths put the odds of recession starting over the next year at less than one-third. Approximately one-in-five see the risk at over 50 percent. Spillovers from housing weakness to broader consumer spending, along with credit-market tightening, are seen as the most likely recession triggers. Panelists seem split about whether core inflation will stay within the Fed’s comfort zone. In general, they see about a 40 percent chance that the 12-month change in the core PCE price index will be above 2% at some point next year. .
NABE members can read the full NABE Outlook here. A summary is available for the public.