Oil Price Forecast
The Graph of the Week shows the forecast for the Consumer Price Index, as forecast by the NABE Outlook panel.
The underlying inflation outlook has been little changed. The 2007 estimate for growth in the Consumer Price Index has been boosted from 2.9% in May to 3.3%, but that for 2008 has been trimmed from 2.4% to 2.2%. Respondents have boosted their estimate of oil prices—now expected to average $68 a barrel through the middle of 2008—which has the effect of increasing 2007 price growth. Growth of the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE Price Index Less Food & Energy) is expected to be 2.0% in both 2007 and 2008, about the same as the May forecast.
The full NABE Outlook Survey is available for members. A summary is available to the public.