Probability of Recession
The Graph of the Week shows the estimate of the probability of recession, as forecast by the NABE Outlook panel.
With the weaker outlook, the panelists are concerned about the risks of recession. In response to a special question, over 60% of the respondents cited recession as the major risk facing the economy over the next year, while only a third cited inflation as the greatest problem. Nonetheless, there is only a small increase seen in the actual odds that a recession will start, comparing the probabilities attached by panelists to this event in September to those given in May. Respondents most concerned about the risk of recession tended to cite problems in the subprime mortgage market and potential declines in home values as the most likely triggers.
The full NABE Outlook Survey is available for members. A summary is available to the public.