Program for the 2009 Annual Meeting

Updated: October 7, 2009

Saturday, October 10, 2009

1:00-5:00 PM Optional Tour

On a personalized guided tour, we’ll visit unique highlights in St. Louis and its charming, colorful neighborhoods.

5:30-6:30 PM NABE PRESIDENT’S WELCOME RECEPTION

Enjoy your favorite beverage and hors d’ouevres while greeting old friends and making new ones.

6:45-9:00 PM NABE DINNER

The annual President's Dinner will take place this year in the ballroom of the Hyatt Regency St. Louis Waterfront. We are pleased to welcome as a keynote speaker David Wessel, author of the new book, In Fed We Trust. Registration for the dinner is separate and not included in the full meeting registration. Register here
Chris Varvares, NABE President, introduction
David Wessel, Wall Street Journal Economics Editor, Author, In Fed We Trust

Sunday, October 11, 2009

9:30-10:30 AM SKILLS SESSION

Career Strategy in the New Environment
A veteran professional will provide insights and explain for achieving success in a business economics career.
Candice Flor Hynek, Milken Institute, presiding
Marc Cenedella, Founder and CEO, TheLadders.com

Sponsor: Get Connected

10:45-11:45 AM SKILLS SESSION

B.E. for B.E.s
Lessons of behavioral economics for business economists.
Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, presiding
Robert Frank, Cornell University/NY Times columnist

12:00-1:30 PM LUNCHEON

A View From the St. Louis Fed
Regina Schleiger, Medley Global Advisors, presiding
James Bullard, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Sponsors: Medley Global Advisors

1:45-3:15 PM The Financial Crisis

The crisis that began in the middle of 2007 with problems in some corners of sub-prime finance grew to threaten the very foundations of world finance and the economy. Are the markets healing? What will be the “new normal?
Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, moderator
Gary Gorton, Yale School of Management
Anjan Thakor, Washington University

Sponsor: Mesirow Financial

3:15-3:45 PM NETWORKING BREAK

3:45-4:45 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS 1

A. Contributed Papers Session

Winners of the ninth annual Mennis competition will present their papers. Watch for an announcement in IdeaLink and on www.nabe.com.
Robert Crow, Editor, Business Economics®, moderator

"Using Aggregate Time Series Variables to Forecast Notices of Default"
Dan Hamilton, Center for Economic Research and Forecasting, California Lutheran University
Rani Isaac, State Library, California Research Bureau
Kirk Lesh, Center for Economic Research and Forecasting, California Lutheran University

"Evaluating and Comparing Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators"
Gad Levanon, The Conference Board

"Underwriting, Mortgage Lending, and House Prices: 1996-2008"
James A. Wilcox, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley

B. Auto Industry in Turmoil: What Direction After the Perfect Storm?

Bill Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, moderator
George Magliano, Director, North American Automotive Research, IHS Global Insight
Thomas Klier, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

C. Health Reform - What, When, How?

After a 16 year hiatus, comprehensive health reform is back. While there are similarities to the 1993-94 debate, there are also important distinctions – not the least of which is the economic crisis coupled with massive fiscal imbalances. Reforms to cover uninsured individuals and address affordability will increase government spending compounding our number one fiscal problem. How does the Administration’s proposal address these concerns? What arguments is the opposition mustering? What are the odds on passage? What is the outlook for our non-system health system in either case? These critical questions will be addressed in this session by an Administration official charged with leading health and healthcare policy.
Paul Hughes-Cromwick, Altarum Institute, moderator
Steven B. Miller, Express Scripts
William Peck, Center for Health Policy, Washington University
Neera Tanden, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Sponsor: Express Scripts

5:00-5:30 PM NABE BUSINESS MEETING

Meet the new NABE board of directors and the new roundtable officers. Learn what NABE has accomplished over the past year and help plan for the future.

6:00-7:15 PM RECEPTION

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Welcome
James Bullard, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Take advantage of the opportunity to visit the Federal Reserve impressive District headquarters and meet some of their economists as you recap the day’s programs with your colleagues. Toasted raviolis and Belgian beer! (Note: all conference attendees must wear their badges while at the reception at the Fed)

Join Get Connected members for a gathering after the Fed reception at the Brewhouse at the Hyatt Regency - St. Louis Riverfront.

Monday, October 12, 2009

7:00-7:45 AM CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST

Sponsor: Swedbank

8:00-9:00 AM Monetary Policy in the New Environment

The Federal Reserve has undertaken the largest change in monetary policy since at least 1979, bringing the federal funds rate down to near-zero,directly intervening in major credit markets, and dramatically increasing the size of its balance sheet. What do these changes mean to the economic and financial outlook, and to the future of monetary policy?
Kate Warne, Edward Jones, moderator
Kenneth Kuttner, Williams College
William Poole, CATO Institute

Sponsor: Edward Jones

9:00-9:30 AM NABE OUTLOOK

Find out about the latest thinking on the economy from NABE’s panel of macroeconomic forecasters from NABE’s vice president. She will also present the eighth annual NABE Outlook Award.
Chris Varvares, NABE President, presiding
Lynn Reaser, NABE Vice President

9:30-10:00 AM NETWORKING BREAK

Sponsor: Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers

10:00-11:00 Fiscal Policy: Responsible or Reckless?

The last year has seen the largest deliberate countercyclical fiscal stimulus in U.S. history. Is it doing its job? What happens after the stimulus? Is the debt burden becoming unsustainable?
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, moderator
Mark Zandi, Moody’s Economy.com
Joel Prakken, Macroeconomic Advisers

11:15-12:00 PM Adam Smith Address

At this session, we will present NABE’s Adam Smith Award. This award is presented annually to an economist who has displayed leadership in the profession and demonstrated excellence in the use of economic ideas and knowledge in the workplace and policy arena.
Chris Varvares, NABE President, presiding
Regina Schleiger, Medley Global Advisors, introduction
Lawrence Summers, Director of the National Economic Council

Sponsor: Medley Global Advisors

12:15-1:45 PM LUNCHEON

A View from the Treasury
Lynn Reaser, NABE Vice President, Point Loma Nazarene University, presiding
Alan B. Krueger, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, U.S. Treasury Department

Sponsor: Point Loma Nazarene University

2:00-3:00 pm CONCURRENT SESSIONS 2

A. Rethinking Risk Management: Lessons Learned from the Financial Crisis

The financial crisis has brought into focus potential weaknesses in modern financial risk management systems; a panel of experts will discuss the lessons that have been learned and provide guides to the systems of the future.
Carl Tannenbaum, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, moderator
Rick Bookstaber, Author of A Demon of Our Own Design
Adrian Blundell-Wignall, Deputy Director, Financial and Enterprise Affairs, OECD

B. The Future of Alternative Energy after the Oil Bubble

The 2008 recession had an unusually large effect on investor owned utilities, impacting some utilities’ manufacturing sales, others’ residential sales, and some of both for others. The financial crisis also impacted utilities’ ability to access capital. These conditions are easing, but as they do the imposition of a carbon cap and trade system may lead to even larger effects. This panel will discuss how both the 2008 recession and impending carbon mitigation policies will affect the energy industry.
Bryan Bezold, Ameren, moderator
John Caldwell, Director of Economics at the Edison Electric Institute
Shawn Schukar, Vice President for Strategic Indicatives at Ameren Services
James Fine, Economist & Policy Scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund

C. Emerging Markets: Performance in the Post-Crisis Period

Parul Jain, MacroFin Analytics, moderator
David E. Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Rogelio Ramirez de la O, Ecanal
Yong Yang, Ford Motor Company

Sponsor: CEIC Data

3:15-3:45 PM NABE PRESIDENT ADDRESS

The NABE president will give the 51st annual presidential address.
Lynn Reaser, NABE Vice President, Point Loma Nazarene University, presiding
Chris Varvares, NABE President, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

3:45-4:00 PM NETWORKING BREAK

Sponsor: ISI Group

4:00-5:00 PM America’s Trading Partners: Leading or Lagging

The speakers will focus on the outlook, current accounts, foreign exchange, and other issues for the largest economies.
Stuart Mackintosh, The Group of Thirty, moderator
Leo Abruzzese, EIU
Nariman Behravesh, IHS Global Insight

5:30-6:30 PM RECEPTION

Old Courthouse
After a day of meetings, enjoy at reception in the historic courthouse where one of the most important legal cases in U.S. history was tried here in 1848 when Dred and Harriett Scott sued for their freedom.

7:00-9:00 PM NABE SMALL GROUP DINNERS

Enjoy dinner and a stimulating conversation at one of St. Louis’ leading restaurants in a small group setting. You will be able to select from a number of different topics and dinner leaders.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

7:30-9:00 AM BREAKFAST

Which is the Bigger Risk - Inflation or a Lost Decade?
Nariman Behravesh, IHS Global Insight, presiding
John Silvia, Wells Fargo
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Company

Sponsor: IHS Global Insight

9:15-10:15 AM Health Policy

The former Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will discuss the key emerging policy issues confronting Congress, the Administration, and the nation.
David Steward, Centene Corporation, presiding
Tommy Thompson, 19th U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services

Sponsor: Centene Corporation

10:15-10:30 AM NETWORKING BREAK

Sponsor: American Chemistry Council

10:30-11:45 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS 3

A. There's No Place Like Home: Understanding the Whirlwind of Housing Statistics

The statistics on the housing industry can sometimes be as confusing as a contractor's bill. In this panel, experts will explain what are the key numbers to watch on building, sales, pricing, and financing. Learn to look beyond the fresh coat of paint and find out what to look for under the cupboards!
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics, moderator
David Crowe, National Association of Home Builders
David Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau
Richard Peach, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sponsor: National Association of REALTORS® Research

B. Financial Turmoil in Eastern and Central European Countries

The Eastern and Central European economies have been severely hit by the financial crisis and the global recession. However, the situation differs among countries, depending on, inter alia, the degree of export dependence and the country-specific macroeconomic imbalances built up before the global crisis occurred. In this session, we will have opportunities to better understand the crisis' effects on two countries: The Czech Republic and Latvia. We will focus on economic development and how economic policy tools have been used in each country as well as the importance of the EU, the IMF, and other institutions to alleviate the financial crisis in the region.
Cecilia Hemansson, Swedbank, moderator
Martins Kazaks, Swedbank, Latvia
Zdenek Tuma, Governor, Czech National Bank

C. NBER Financial Market Reform Panel: Where Do We Go From Here?

The annual NBER session presents the views of leading academic economists on a topic of broad interest. This year, two prominent financial economists will discuss various aspects of the financial crisis and the appropriate design of financial market regulation going forward.
Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, moderator
Arvind Krishnamurthy, Kellog School at Northwestern University
Rene Stulz, The Ohio State University

12:00-1:30 PM LUNCHEON

A View from the Fed
Chris Varvares, NABE President, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, presiding
Sara Johnson, IHS Global Insight, introduction
Donald Kohn, Vice Chairman, Federal Reserve Board

Over the last two years, U.S. monetary policy has undergone its largest structural transformation in generations. Hear one of the key persons of this process give his views on monetary policy, the markets, and the economy.

Sponsor: IHS Global Insight

1:45-2:45 PM Prudential Supervision of Banks: What Went Wrong and How Do We Fix It?

Rethinking supervision and regulation; what should the new regime look like?
Rich Brown, FDIC, moderator
Martin Neil Baily, Brookings Institution
Richard J. Herring, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

3:00-4:15 Skills Session

Communicate More Effectively—Inside and Outside Your Company
Lynn Reaser, NABE Vice President, Point Loma Nazarene University, presiding
Tripp Frohlichstein, MediaMasters, Inc.

Learn how to communicate more effectively with your management, clients and the media from one of the nation’s leading coaches in this field. This session will feature live tapings of your colleagues (or you if you volunteer!) and critiques of their performances.

*Click here to download the conference brochure (NOTE: this program does not include the most updated schedule. Please refer above for the updated version of the program.)