Session 23 Business Cycles, Growth Recessions, and Monetary Policy
One of the biggest challenges facing monetary policy authorities is managing expectations about their next action—interest rates up or down. Growth recessions—wherein an economy grows less than trend—is a particularly precarious time, and even more so if the rate of growth of potential output is slowing. Have business cycle dynamics changed in recent years? Have monetary authorities changed as well?
Presentations
Links of Interest
Speakers
William Dunkelberg
Natl Federation of Independent Business, moderator
Andrew Hodge
Bureau of Economics Analysis
Andrew is responsible for the development and improvement of profits reporting at the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and liaison with user groups. He also acts as senior advisor on the overall US economic NIPA accounts.
Prior experience includes Group Managing Director, Global Insight, in charge of the US forecast, Bank Brussels Lambert, VP, Economist and Strategist, doing global economics/market strategy, including US and G-7 central bank watching , and Bankers Trust, VP and Economist, where responsibilities included Europe/Mideast/Africa and foreign exchange. Before joining Bankers Trust, Andrew held senior positions in economics with W.R. Grace, J.P. Morgan, and the US Treasury. The latter included service at the US Embassy, Paris, the Foreign Exchange Dept. and staff work preparing for the Smithsonian Agreement. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Michigan and an M.A. in Economics from George Washington University
Offices and activities include Money Marketeers of NY, past governor, International Economists of NY, Past President, and NABE. Regular contributor to CNBC, CNN, WSJ, Financial Times, Le Monde, and other media. He has written extensively on corporate profits, US macroeconomic forecasting, venture capital, global central banking, emerging market country risk, the international monetary system and foreign exchange markets
John Silvia
Chief Economist
Wachovia Bank N.A.
Dr. John Silvia joined Wachovia in February 2002 as chief economist for the Bank. Previously, John worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Prior to that, he was chief economist of Kemper Funds and managing director of Scudder Kemper Investments, Inc. Before joining Kemper Funds, John worked for Harris Bank and taught economics at Indiana University.
John holds a B.A. and a Ph.D. degree in economics from Northeastern University in Boston and has a Master’s degree in economics from Brown University in Providence, RI.
John serves as a member of the Blue Chip Panel of Economic Forecasters and also serves on an informal advisory group for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee at the American Bankers Association and is President of the Charlotte Economics Club. In the past, John has served on economic advisory committees to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Public Securities Association.
In addition, John is Treasurer and a member of the Board of Directors for The Second Harvest Food Bank of Metrolina, a Charlotte civic association. He is also a member of the Business Advisory Committee for the City of Charlotte and he serves on the President’s Council for Charlotte’s Central Piedmont Community College.
Michael Niemira
National Council of Shopping Centers
MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA is the Chief Economist and Director of Research for the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). Before joining ICSC, he held the position of Vice President and Senior Economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Ltd. (BTM) in New York, where he worked in the Research Department. Previously, he worked for PaineWebber, Chemical Bank and Merrill Lynch. Over the years, he was an adjunct instructor at New York University’s Stern Graduate School of Business and at the New York Institute of Finance.
He produces the ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot – a retail sales monitor – as well as the monthly report ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends. Mr. Niemira has co-authored two books: Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, John Wiley & Sons, 1994, and Trading the Fundamentals, Revised Edition, McGraw Hill, 1998. Additionally, he contributed numerous articles to books, journals and magazines, including writing a monthly magazine column about the consumer for the trade publication Chain Store Age.
Mr. Niemira is on advisory panels for the Conference Board and the Institute for Supply Management.
He has received the A.G. Abramson award from the National Association for Business Economics and was awarded honorary faculty membership by St. John’s University chapter of Omicron Delta Epsilon.
