Program for "Global Integration, Competition, and Innovation"
Pre-Meeting Events
Saturday, September 8, 2007
5:30-7:00 PM Welcome reception
Sponsor: Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
7:00-10:30 PM San Francisco Bay Cruise
Enjoy a cruise aboard Hornblower Cruises. Start with cocktails on deck as the crew transports you to a world of luxury. Aboard this dinner-dance cruise you will enjoy delicious food, live entertainment and breathtaking bay views. Sign up by August 1 to reserve your place. See registration form.
Meeting Sessions
Sunday, September 9, 2007
10:00-10:45 AM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: CEIC Data
10:45 AM-12:15 PM
SKILLS SESSIONS
Communicate More Effectively—Inside and Outside Your Company
Learn how to communicate more effectively with your management, clients and the media from one of the nation’s leading coaches in this field. This session will feature live tapings of your colleagues (or you if you volunteer!) and critiques of their performances.
Lynn Reaser, Bank of America, moderator
Tripp Frohlichstein, MediaMasters, Inc.
12:30-2:00 PM LUNCHEON
Hear the views from one of the Governor Schwarzenegger's chief advisors. California, the nation's most populous state, leads the way on issues ranging from global warming to health care reform, immigration, and technology.
Lynn Reaser, Bank of America, moderator
David Crane, Special Advisor to Gov Schwarzenegger for Jobs and Economic Growth
Sponsor: Bank of America
2:15-3:30 PM Concurrent Sessions I
A. The Outlook for Europe, New Members, and International Competitiveness
Has Europe, particularly Germany, finally come to a more sustainable recovery? Has the EU finally raised the potential rate of growth of output? What are the implications for global competitiveness, on the one hand, and the divergence among member states on the other?
Hubert Fromlet, Swedbank, moderator
Joachim Scheide, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Jürgen Kröger, European Commission
Sponsor: Swedbank
B. The U.S. Wine Industry – It’s Future in U.S. and Global Markets
The session will discuss the economic role of the U.S. wine industry and how it is changing in response to consumers, regulation, and import pressures.
Christopher Swann, Bureau of Economic Analysis, moderator
Barbara Insel, MKF Research LLC
Tracy Genessen, Kirkland & Ellis
C. Information Technology and Health Care
This session will explore the potential for more extensive use of information technology to reduce the cost of health care (both one-time and ongoing growth) as well as to improve outcomes. We will discuss the hurdles—financial, technical, and institutional—that need to be surmounted to achieve these objectives.
Devon Herrick, National Center for Policy Analysis and Health Economic Roundtable Chair, moderator
John Bertko, Consultant
Stephen Parente, University of Minnesota
Sponsor: Health Economic Roundtable
3:30-4:00 PM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: American Chemistry Council
4:00-5:15 PM Concurrent Sessions II
A. Economic Statistics
Everyone knows that the United States has a huge trade deficit and depends on foreign financing. Many say that implies an uncompetitive U.S. economy. But, impressions based on aggregate data can be deceiving. This session reviews what digging a little deeper into international data reveals about the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, the consumption habits of the U.S. household, and global investing by U.S. and foreign financiers.
Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics, Moderator
Catherine Mann, Brandeis University
Brad Setzer, RGE Monitor
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,
University of California, Berkeley
Sponsor: RGE Monitor
B. Immigration—Friend or Foe?
Globalization through cross-border flows of people is becoming an ever-greater policy and business issue. What are the facts and fault lines? What should be the policy?
Ann Dunbar, Bureau of Economic Analysis, moderator
Rakesh Kochhar, Pew Hispanic Center
Pia M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
William F. Ford, Middle Tennessee State University
Sponsor: Regional/Utility Roundtable
C. Intellectual Property Rights Issues and Management in a Global Economy
Intangible assets—the return to research and development—are becoming increasingly important for business strategy and success, cross-border trade, and macroeconomic performance. This session will address issues and approaches to ensuring intellectual property rights in a digital, global economy.
Sumiye Okubo, Bureau of Economic Analysis, moderator
Kaye Husbands Fealing, National Science Foundation
Paul Thomas, Intel Corporation
Martin Fleming, IBM Corporation
Sponsor: Technology Roundtable
6:00-7:15 PM Reception at Bank of America’s Carnelian Room
Reception in the Carnelian Room
Enjoy the view from the 52nd floor as you overlook San Francisco’s skyline and relax with your NABE associates.
Sponsor: National Federation of Independent Business
7:30-9:00 PM NABE Small Dinner Events
Take advantage of an opportunity to enjoy dinner and a stimulating conversation at one of San Francisco’s leading restaurants in a small group setting. You will be able to select from a number of different topics and dinner leaders.
Monday, September 10, 2007
7:00-7:45 AM CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
Sponsor: Wachovia Bank
8:00-8:45 AM A View from the Federal Reserve
Hear the views of one of the nation’s foremost economists and current president and CEO of the 12th District Federal Reserve.
Carl Tannenbaum, NABE President/LaSalle Bank, ABN/AMRO, moderator
Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
8:45-9:30 AM A View from the CEA
The chair of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers will brief us on his views of economic policy and where the U.S. economy is headed.
John Silvia, Wachovia Bank, moderator
Edward Lazear, Council of Economic Advisers
Sponsored by Wachovia Bank
9:30-10:15 AM NABE Outlook
Find out about the latest thinking on the economy from NABE’s panel of macroeconomic forecasters from NABE’s vice president. She will also present the seventh annual NABE Outlook Award.
Carl Tannenbaum, NABE President/LaSalle Bank, ABN/AMRO, moderator
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, NABE Vice President/Ford Motor Company
10:15-10:45 AM Network Break
Sponsors: Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers
10:45-Noon Concurrent Sessions III
A. California and National Outlook for Housing, Construction & Materials
California is often a harbinger for the nation. What’s happening now in the state’s housing market? What does it portend for other states? For construction and construction materials nationwide? Anyone involved with housing finance, real estate, construction, economic forecasting, and domestic economic policy will be interested in this session.
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, moderator
Robert Kleinhenz, California Association of Realtors
Robert Murray, McGraw-Hill Construction
Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America
B. The Economics and Policy-Making of Asset Markets
In recent years the influence of asset prices on monetary policy and consumer spending have taken on new urgency given the run up of equity prices in the late 1990s and housing prices in the 2004-2006 period. This session offers three views on the interplay of asset prices and economic and policy decision-making.
Beth Ann Bovino, Standard & Poor’s, moderator
Jason Benderly, Benderly Economics
James Bianco, Bianco Research LLC
Wesley Phoa, Capital Guardian Trust
C: Economics, Markets, and Politics of Global Warming
Few issues will impact business as much as a serious effort to mitigate global warming. This session explores economic policy and supply-side and demand-side technologies as means of meeting global warming challenges while maintaining economic growth.
Sydney Smith Hicks, NABE Corporate Planning Roundtable Chair, introductions
James Sweeney, Stanford University
Jane Hughes Turnbull, Peninsula Energy Partners
Sponsor: Corporate Planning Roundtable
12:15 - 1:45 PM LUNCHEON Adam Smith Award Address
John Taylor, former Under Secretary for International Affairs, U.S. Treasury Department, will deliver NABE’s 26th annual Adam Smith Award lecture. He is currently a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Other recipients of the Award have included Milton Friedman, James Tobin, Gary Becker, and George Stigler.
Sponsor: Global Insight
2:00-3:15 PM Concurrent Sessions IV
A. Contributed Papers
Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
“Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment”
James A. Wilcox, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
NABE Contributed Paper Award
“An Empirical Model of the Sources of Innovation in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector”
Jeremy A. Leonard, Economic Consultant, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Cliff Waldman, Economist, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Sponsor: PNC Financial Services Group
B. International Financial Markets–International Asset Trade and the World Reserve Currency
Does the explosion in international asset trade, the new global financial power of the Asia-Pacific countries, and the emerging dual world reserve currency system challenge the preeminent role for the dollar? What does this mean for the stability of the international monetary system, its institutions, and the global external adjustment challenges?
Chris Varvares, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, moderator
Brian A. Bethune, Global Insight
Maurice Obstfeld, University of California at Berkeley
Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
C. Prospects for U.S. and Regional Trade Negotiations
While globalization offers huge potential benefits for the world economy, the rules under which international trade is conducted are a critical and contentious issue. This session highlights some of the most pressing international trade issues facing the U.S. economy at present. Will the Doha Round of the WTO negotiations overcome the obstacles posed by agricultural subsidies in Europe and the U.S.? Does Asian manufacturing represent a mortal threat to U.S. factory workers that will lead to protectionist pressures?
Stuart Mackintosh, Group of 30, moderator
Geza Feketekuty, Monterey Institute of International Studies
John Odell, University of Southern California
David A. Walters, Office of the United State Trade Representative
Sponsor: Manufacturing Roundtable
3:15-3:45 PM Networking Break
Sponsor: Associated General Contractors of America
3:45-4:30 PM NABE PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
“The Incredible Shrinking Bank Industry”
The NABE president will give the 49th annual presidential address. He will look at profound changes in the banking industry. What has been the impact on asset markets? Is risk underpriced now?
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, NABE Vice President/Ford Motor Company, moderator
Carl R. Tannenbaum, NABE President, LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO, N.A.
4:45-5:30 PM NABE BUSINESS MEETING
Meet the new NABE board of directors and the new roundtable officers. Learn what NABE has accomplished over the past year and help plan for the future.
6:15-7:30 PM RECEPTION
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Take advantage of the opportunity to visit the Federal Reserve impressive District headquarters and meet some of their economists as you recap the day’s programs with your colleagues. Afterwards, dinner on your own at one of San Francisco’s many excellent restaurants.
9:00-10:00 PM
Join friends and colleague for a 9/11-remembrance session.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
TUESDAY'S FEATURED SPONSOR: FACTSET
7:30-9:00 AM BREAKFAST
“Googlenomics”
Gene Huang, FedEx Corporation, moderator
Hal Varian, Google and University of California at Berkeley
Co-author of a best-selling book on business strategy, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy, Hal R. Varian will deliver the keynote address. He holds two professorships at the University of California, Berkeley: one with the School of Information Management and Systems, the Haas School of Business, and the other with the Department of Economics. He also writes a monthly column for The New York Times.
Sponsor: FedEx Corporation
9:15-10:30 AM Concurrent Sessions V
A. Transportation Infrastructure: What Do We Need? How Can We Pay for It?
Congested and crumbling infrastructure is a threat to growth. But the public has seemed unwilling to fund improvements. What should be done? How should it be funded? Anyone concerned about transportation, trade, freight, or economic development policy will want to attend this session.
Carl Chrappa, Independent Equipment Company, moderator
Robert Kanter, Port of Long Beach
Robert Poole, Reason Foundation
Diego Saltes, American Road and Transportation Builders Association
Sponsor: Manufacturing Roundtable
B. Venture Capital: Innovation, Issuance, and Leverage
This session will cover the latest trends in IPO issuance, including the latest innovations coming to market as well as the pros and cons of the issuance process. The Google IPO online auction will be discussed.
Brooks Robinson, Institute for Triple Helix Innovation, University of Hawaii, moderator
Nayantara Hensel, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Jerome S. Engel, Lester Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Sponsor: Financial Roundtable
C. Business Cycles, Growth Recessions, and Monetary Policy
One of the biggest challenges facing monetary policy authorities is managing expectations about their next action—interest rates up or down. Growth recessions—wherein an economy grows less than trend—is a particularly precarious time, and even more so if the rate of growth of potential output is slowing. Have business cycle dynamics changed in recent years? Have monetary authorities changed as well?
William Dunkelberg, Natl Federation of Independent Business, moderator
Andrew Hodge, Bureau of Economics Analysis
John Silvia, Wachovia Bank
Michael Niemira, National Council of Shopping Centers
10:30-11:00 AM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: Standard & Poor's
11:00-12:15 PM Concurrent Sessions VI
A: Security Issues
What are the economic issues facing the U.S. defense industry today? The U.S.-EU defense alliance is changing. How will the new wave of defense mergers affect efficiency and cost of weapons systems? What is the role for finance in reconstructing the Iraqi economy? How does venture capital impact innovation in the US defense industries? What are the challenges faced by the U.S. military in manpower planning and retention?
Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, moderator
Francois Melese, Defense Resource Management Institute
Nayantara Hensel, Graduate School of Business, US Naval Postgraduate School
Jim Hosek, Director, Forces and Resources Policy Center, RAND
B. Energy, Metals, Crops: Can Commodities Price Spikes Spark Inflation?
Oil, natural gas, steel, copper, corn and other commodity prices soared since 2004, yet inflation stayed tame. What’s in store for these inputs? Will it make a difference to the broader economy? Anyone concerned about energy, commodities, trade, inflation, forecasting, and economic policy should be interested in this session.
Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council, moderator
Earl Sweet, BMO Capital Markets
Robert Young, American Farm Bureau Federation
C. Forecasting and Planning for New Directions in International Trade
International trade is surging as new global economic relationships are forged. What is the outlook for international trade volumes by countries and products, focusing on trade among the United States, Asia, Latin America, and key emerging markets? Do relationships such as the growing China-Brazil-Africa nexus mean a decoupling of the global economy from the United States? How do Port Executives use forecasts in strategic planning and what are the globalization challenges facing ports today?
Sara Johnson, Global Insight, moderator
Maria Bertram, Global Insight
Larry Cottrill, Port of Long Beach
Sponsor: International Roundtable
12:30-2:00 PM LUNCHEON
Hear a major policy address from one of the leading spokespersons on U.S. international trade policy.
Sara B. Potter, CFA, FactSet Research Systems Inc., moderator
John K. Veroneau, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative
Ambassador Veroneau was appointed by President Bush as Deputy U.S. Trade Representative in September, 2006. His portfolio includes trade relations with Europe and Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Americas, as well as matters involving the World Trade Organization (WTO). He also oversees the handling intellectual property, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, services, and market access.
Sponsor: FactSet
POST-MEETING EVENT
2:30-8:00 PM
Napa Valley Wine Tour and Dinner
Enjoy an afternoon in beautiful Napa Valley, followed by a dinner and sampling of the area’s famous wines. Bus transportation provided.
