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Session 13: Information-Based Models in Financial Services: Reducing Risk or Introducing Risk?
Models are becoming increasingly important in the creation, pricing, and risk management of bank products. Credit scoring, behavioral profiling, and risk-based capital systems are just three examples of this trend. What are the pros and cons of this evolution, and where might it be heading in the future?
Presentations
Nancy Wentzler: Use of Economic Models in Financial Services - Successes and Challenges
Nancy Wentzler: Talking Points
Links of Interest
National City Bank Economics Department
Speakers
Nancy A. Wentzler
Deputy Comptroller, Global Banking and Financial Analysis
Comptroller of the Currency
Nancy Wentzler is deputy comptroller for Global Banking and Financial Analysis in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
Ms. Wenztler is in charge of the economic and financial analysis of potential risks to the banking system and the development of risk models to serve as early warning tools for such risks.
Prior to her work at the OCC, she served from 1991 through 1994 with the Office of Thrift Supervision in charge of the development of systems for early identification of problem thrifts and provided regular reports through press conferences on the thrift crisis.
From 1989 through 1990, she was economic advisor and subsequently inspector general with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and from 1980 through1989 she served as senior economist with the Office of Management and Budget. Ms. Wentzler held an adjunct professor position with Virginia Tech from 1989 through 2000.
She holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin and bachelor's of science in economics and business from Penn State University.
Richard DeKaser
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
National City Bank
Richard J. DeKaser is senior vice president and chief economist at National City Corporation, where he provides analysis to senior management, business leaders, and clients of the bank. His responsibilities include economic forecasting and financial market analysis.
Mr. DeKaser is responsible for the corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts and related research. He also authors the Financial Market Outlook, a monthly commentary on timely economic issues, and The Region, offering quarterly analysis and forecasts of the Midwest economy. Each is available via mail or on the National City Economics Web site (www.nationalcity.com/economics).
Prior to joining National City, Mr. DeKaser was senior financial economist at Bank of Boston, now Bank of America, where he handled capital market and risk management research. Previous to that, he was senior associate at Data Resources Inc., a division of Standard and Poors Corporation, where he managed contract research and forecasting. He joined DRI after serving two years as staff economist at the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Mr. DeKaser is a graduate of New York University, where he received undergraduate and advanced degrees in economics.
He is a member of the Governor's (Hon. Robert Taft) Council of Economic Advisors, contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Financial Forecasts, and was recognized by USA Today as fourth most accurate forecaster in 2004 and third most accurate in 2003—the only economist to place in the top five each year. He is a former chairman of the American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee, former member of the Business Research Advisory Council (an advisory board to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics), and past president of the New England Economic Project.
He is often quoted in leading financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal and Business Week, appears frequently on Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox News television broadcasts, and is a widely sought-after public speaker.
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