Program for Comparative Advantage in the 21st Century— Information Technology and the Professional Network
(Program as of August 24, 2006)
Saturday, September 9, 2006
Plan to arrive early to take advantage of Boston industry/historical tours. We'll let you know the details soon.
5:30-7:00 PM NABE PRESIDENT'S WELCOME RECEPTION
7:05 PM
Baseball at Fenway Park. Limited number of tickets available at cost. Transportation on your own.
Sunday, September 10, 2006
11:00 AM-12:15 PM CONCURRENT SKILLS SESSIONS
I. Dealing with the Media
Come learn how to present and market yourself to the press with this superstar panel of public relations and reporters. Learn how to put you best foot forward with a nationally acclaimed reporter and media training expert, find out how best to market yourself and build relations with the press with a top public relations expert, and hear first hand what reporters are looking for when they call from one of the country's most experienced and well-known economic reporters.
Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, Mesirow Financial
Deborah Krieps, Chief Marketing Officer, Mesirow Financial
Mike McKee, Economics Editor, Bloomberg, and Anchor, “After the Bell”
Hampton Pearson, Senior Washington Correspondent, CNBC
II. Mastering Technology—A Survey
Learn about available hardware and software— and some that are coming down the pike—that can make our lives easier.
Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, moderator
Steve Wildstrom, Technology Reporter, BusinessWeek
III. Blogs
Blogging and podcasting are two ways that IT enables both large and small organizations to network by spreading their message worldwide.Hear some examples of how they are being used.
Bruce Kratofil, BJK Research and NABE Webmaster, moderator
David Warsh, Editor, Economic Principals.com
12:30-2:00 PM LUNCHEON
Keynote Address:
"Economic Catalysts"
Sara B. Potter, Product Manager Economic Data, FactSet Research Systems, Inc., introducer
Richard Schmalensee, Dean, Sloan School of Management,Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dr. Schmalensee has recently co-authored a book entitled Invisible Engines: How Software Platforms Drive Innovation and Transform Industries. He was a member of President George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 through 1991.
Sponsor: Factset
2:15-3:30 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS I
A. Measuring Inflation
Inflation targeting as a Fed policy methodology requires a good inflation definition. This panel will discuss the PCE and CPI, what they are, and how to use them.Will either or both work as a target? Can either or both truly measure inflation? Is it wise to base Fed policymaking on one of these numbers? This panel will try to find the answers.
David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisers, moderator
Harvey Rosenblum, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Stephen G. Cecchetti, Professor of International Economics and Finance, Brandeis University
B. Household Wealth and the Savings Rate
The session will focus on the latest research from the Federal Reserve’s 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances.What do the data show are the latest findings on how savings and wealth accumulation are distributed by income class? Are middle income people saving and accumulating enough wealth for their retirement? What are the links between wealth accumulation and economic and financial literacy? For more on these and other topics, please join us.
Kathleen Camilli, President, Camilli Economics, moderator
Annamaria Lusardi, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College
Karen Pence, Economist, Federal Reserve Board
Sponsor: Financial Roundtable
C. Capital Inflows and the Trade Deficit: Measurement and Implications of Global Imbalances
How much does the US depend on foreign capital, and how sustainable is it? Some $7 billion each day, accumulating to about $2.7 trillion dollars in external obligations to the rest of the world? Or, are international capital flows measured so poorly that the US has almost no external debt at all? The currency composition of international capital flows also matters quite a bit for the exposure of the U.S. economy to international indebtedness. This session will present these alternative views and debate their implications.
Catherine L. Mann, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, moderator
“Borrowing Without Debt? The Linkage Between the U.S. Current Account and Net Foreign Assets”
Cedric Tille, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
“Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the U.S. Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt”
John Kitchen, Economist, Office of Management and Budget
“Flows, Fallacies, and Facts: Caveats and Pitfalls in Capital Account Analysis”
Brian M. Garvey, Vice President, State Street Global Markets
Sponsor: International Roundtable
3:30-4:00 PM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: Pioneer Investments
4:00-5:15 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS II
A. Private Sector Data Developments in Response to the New Economy
Private-sector data networks improve the breadth, accuracy, and timeliness of the official statistics. Looking ahead, these networks point the way toward the public sector eventually tapping into these data needs. How do these private sector sources reflect the new economy? Disaggregation? Innovation?
Chris Swann, Economist, Bureau of Economic Analysis, moderator
“Small Business Data”
William C. Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, National Federation of Independent Business
"Construction Data”
James W. Haughey, Chief Economist, Reed Construction Data
“ISM Surveys”
Norbert J. Ore, Chair, Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
B. Developing the Consultant Data Base— Economist as Entrepreneur
Our speakers will profile their information-based businesses and tell how they developed their consulting business from an industry data set “foundation.” In each case, while data was a starting point, the business was nurtured and expanded through customer contacts and recognition of key industry issues to which they were able to bring answers. The end result was the establishment of a franchise in which they are the authoritative source for both data and expertise in their fields.
Maurine Haver, President, Haver Analytics, moderator
Kenny W. Vieth, Partner, A.C.T. Research Co., LLC
Allen Grommet, Senior Economist, Cambridge Consumer Credit Index
5:45-7:15 PM RECEPTION
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Discuss the day’s events with friends and colleagues and enjoy the panoramic views from the 31st floor. Bus transportation from the hotel provided.
Monday, September 11, 2006
MONDAY'S FEATURED SPONSOR: Global Insight
7:00-7:45 AM CONTINENTAL BREAKFAST
Sponsor: LaSalle Bank
7:00-7:45 AM MANUFACTURING ROUNDTABLE MEETING
8:00-8:45 AM OPENING SESSION
Joe Kasputys, Chairman, President, and CEO, Global Insight, introducing
Cathy E. Minehan, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Cathy Minehan has been president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston for 12 years. In 2006, she is an alternate member of the FOMC and will rotate to a member in 2007.
Sponsor: Global Insight
8:45-9:15 AM NABE Outlook
Find out about the latest thinking on the economy from NABE’s panel of macroeconomic forecasters. We will also present the sixth annual NABE Outlook Award.
Stuart G. Hoffman, NABE President and Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group, moderator
Carl Tannenbaum,NABE Vice President and Chief Economist, La Salle Bank/ABN AMRO N.A.
9:15-9:40 AM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers
9:40-10:55 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS III
A. The Economics of a 24/7 World and How IT Has Changed Business
Rapid IT infusion in recent years has elevated the level of access by economic participants to information, increased the velocity of transactions, and enabled many commercial activities. This session discusses recent e-commerce practices in different economic sectors and their macro backdrop.
Philip Swan, Chief Economist, IBM, moderator
Patti Freeman Evans, Senior Analyst, Jupiter Research
Andrew Bartels, Vice President and Research Analyst, Forrester Research, Inc.
Sponsor: Technology Roundtable
B. Information-Based Models in Financial Services: Reducing Risk or Introducing Risk?
Models are becoming increasingly important in the creation, pricing, and risk management of bank products. Credit scoring, behavioral profiling, and risk-based capital systems are just three examples of this trend. What are the pros and cons of this evolution, and where might it be heading in the future?
Nancy A. Wentzler, Deputy Comptroller, Global Banking and Financial Analysis, Comptroller of the Currency
Richard DeKaser, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, National City Bank
C. Contributed Papers
Robert T. Crow, Editor, Business Economics, moderator
2006 Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
“Strengthening Globalization’s Invisible Hand: What Matters Most”
Adam Ratner, Business Enterprise Consultant, West Monroe Partners
Thomas F. Siems, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2006 NABE Contributed Paper Award
“Pricing of Mutual Fund Services in Retirement Plans: Evidence From Open-End Equity Funds”
Jacob De Rooy, Professor, School of Business Administration, Capital College of The Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg
D. Commercial Construction Outlook: Information Gathering, Processing, and Dissemination
The session will focus on the construction, methodology, and results of forecasting commercial construction from three distinctly different approaches and data sources.
Lloyd Nace, Strategic Business Analyst, American Standard, moderator
Ward Caswell, U.S.Director of Research, CB Richard Ellis
Mark G. Dotzour, Chief Economist & Director of Research, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
Kenneth D. Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors of America
Sponsor: Manufacturing Roundtable
11:05-11:30 AM NABE PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
The NABE president will give the 48th annual presidential address.
Carl Tannenbaum, NABE Vice President and Chief Economist, LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO N.A., moderator
Stuart G.Hoffman,NABE President and Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group
11:45-1:15 PM LUNCHEON Adam Smith Award Address
Stuart G. Hoffman, NABE President and Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group, moderator
William Poole, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The NABE 25th annual Adam Smith Address Lecture will be given by William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In receiving this award, he follows his close colleagues and mentors Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, and Alan Meltzer.
Sponsor: PNC Financial Group Services
1:30-2:30 PM CEO Roundtable
Join us at this popular session and hear how heads of companies use technology to respond to competitive challenges.
Gene Huang, Chief Economist, FedEx Corporation, moderator
Emily Nagle Green, President and CEO, The Yankee Group
Mark Fusco, President and CEO, Aspen Technology
Tony Pagliarulo, Vice President,
Enterprise Programs,
EMC
2:30-3:00 PM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: Standard and Poor's
3:00-4:15 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS IV
A. NBER Session
Since The Wealth of Nations we have puzzled over how to measure and analyze wealth and living standards. Two leading experts will survey cutting- edge research on related questions: How should we measure capital and wealth in an information- based, evolving economy? What is the likely evolution of global productivity trends, and what are their implications?
Richard B. Berner, Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley, moderator
John Haltiwanger, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland
Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics, Northwestern University
Sponsor: National Bureau of Economic Research
B. Marriage of Economics and Management Information in the High Technology Space
Many say that the fast-paced world of high tech moves too quickly for the traditional approach of a macroeconomist (building historical data sets, estimating statistical relationships over a long period of time, using those in an analysis or forecasting model). True? If not, why the impression? If so, does (business) economics offer other frameworks or tools in its toolkit? What do successful practitioners and forecasters do in this space?
Jim Meil, Chief Economist, Eaton Corporation, moderator
Walter Class, Strategic Marketing Director (ret), Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
Stephen Minton, Vice President, Worldwide IT Markets, International Data Corporation
C. Europe’s Attempt to Catch Up
Hubert Fromlet, Chief Economist, Swedbank, moderator
“European Financial Markets—How and Why Information Technology Matters”
Hans-Helmut Kotz, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank
“Can the German Economy Give More Strength to a European Recovery?”
Jürgen Pfister, Chief Economist, Bayerische Landesbank
Sponsor: NabeEurope
D. Health Care, Information, and Technology: A New World for Business
Robert F. Graboyes, Visiting Lecturer, University of Richmond; Adjunct Associate Professor, Virginia Commonwealth University; Clinical Associate Professor of Nursing, University of Virginia; Chair, NABE Health Economics Roundtable, moderator
“The Value of Health Care Information Technology”
Blackford Middleton, Assistant Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School; Corporate Director for Clinical Informatics Research and Development; Chairman of the Center for Information Technology Leadership
“Instrumenting Health Care Systems for Discovery in the Genomic Era”
Isaac S. Kohane, Associate Professor of Health Sciences and Technology, Harvard Medical School; Co-Director, HMS Center for Biomedical Informatics; Director, HMS Countway Library of Medicine
Sponsor: NABE Health Economics Roundtable
4:30-5:30 PM GENERAL SESSION
Solving the Savings Crisis
Brian Horrigan, Chief Economist, Loomis Sayles and Company, moderator
Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics, Boston University
John Ameriks, Senior Investment Analyst, Vanguard
5:30-6:00 PM NABE BUSINESS MEETING
Meet the new NABE board of directors and officers of the NABE roundtables. Learn what we’ve accomplished over the past year. Help plan for the future and shape your professional association.
6:15-7:15 PM RECEPTION
Another opportunity to meet and discuss the day's events. The small dinner groups will also gather at this time.
7:30-9:30 PM Optional Small Dinner Discussion Groups
Plan to attend one of these small discussion groups during a no-host dinner at a Boston restaurant. Last year’s meeting attendees gave the event rave reviews. Register on the attached registration form, and we’ll send additional information to you.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
TUESDAY'S FEATURED SPONSOR: FedEx Corporation
7:30-9:00 AM BREAKFAST
The chair of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers will brief us on his views of economic policy and where the U.S. economy is headed.
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wachovia Bank, N.A., moderator
Edward Lazear, Chairman, President’s Council of Economic Advisers
Sponsor: Wachovia Bank, N.A.
9:15-10:30 AM CONCURRENT SESSIONS V
A. Technology and the Financial Markets: Trading 24/7/360
Technology is critical to financial markets as investors increasingly look across time zones to find the best investments. Cross-border investing requires not only being able to trade 24 hours a day, but more importantly, to manage and trade portfolios around 360 degrees of longitude.
David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s, moderator
Chris Probyn, Chief Economist, State Street Capital
Paul Bennett, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, New York Stock Exchange
B. How the IT Revolution Is Impacting Business Planning and Operations: Tactical and Strategic Implications
IT has had a large impact on how companies do business and on the types of business they pursue. In this session, speakers from a diverse set of companies will describe how IT has impacted their companies' operations and strategies.
Harry Homan, Senior Director, Strategic Development, Fluor Corporation,moderator
Jim Meil, Chief Economist, Eaton Corporation
Sydney Smith Hicks, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Metavante Corporation
Sponsor: Corporate Planning Roundtable
C. Financial Markets and Economic Information in Real Time
How have advances in information technology been reflected in the development and processing of economic information? In what ways have lower costs of communications altered how information is disseminated?
Warren A. Johnson, CFA; Principal, Johnson Portfolio Group; Executive in Residence, Babson College; Past President, Boston Security Analysts Society,moderator
Charles Gabriel, Senior Vice President, Equities Research, Prudential Securities
Maury Harris, Managing Director/
/Chief U.S.
Economist, UBS
Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist & Managing Director, Bank of America Investment Strategies Group
10:30-11:00 AM NETWORKING BREAK
Sponsor: IBM Corporation
11:00-12:15 PM CONCURRENT SESSIONS VI
A. “Promoting your Services Internally and Externally: Communication Techniques”
This panel will review techniques for increasing your unit’s visibility through value-added contributions. First, it is necessary to identify what is important to your company or institution.Next, develop a program of monitoring those issues, as well as identifying emerging issues. Finally, initiate a communication strategy to provide information internally and externally on the key topics. This session will focus primarily on the communication strategy.
Kurt Karl, Chief Economist, Swiss Re, moderator
Robert C. Fry, Jr., Senior Associate Economist, DuPont
Stuart Hoffman, Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group
Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors of America
B. How Data Affects Public Policy
Some critics suggest that Washington policy debates unfold on a platform of hot air, largely disconnected from any factual foundation. While there is a grain of truth in nearly everything cynics say about Washington, the role of data and its importance in policy discussions is growing rapidly. This panel will bring together the heads of two ofWashington’s top tax policy shops and former top Bush and Clinton administration economists to explore how data is used to change public policy. The panel also will discuss how congressionally mandated cuts in funding for data collection may affect the future of empirical public policy work.
William Beach, Director, Center for Data Analysis, Heritage Foundation, moderator
Leonard Burman, Director, Tax Policy Center, Brookings Institution/Urban Institute
David Malpass, Chief Economist, Bear Stearns
Gene Sperling, Director of the National Economic Council under President Clinton
C. Too Much Information? The Art of Communication and Monetary Policy
In keeping with the conference theme of how information can be assembled, used, and misused, this panel of central bankers and/or central bank watchers will discuss their views on how, and how much, a central bank should comment on the future course of monetary policy.
Carl R. Tannenbaum, Chief Economist, LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO, N.A.
John M. Berry, Columnist, Bloomberg News
Brian Sack, Vice President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
12:15-1:45 PM LUNCHEON
How are radical changes in information production that the Internet has introduced reshaping markets? New forms of collaboration and decentralized production are creating new sources of competition and offering new opportunities for businesses.At the same time, they are offering new opportunities to enhance individual freedom, cultural diversity, political discourse, and justice. But these results are by no means inevitable. A systematic campaign to protect a number of entrenched industrial information economy incumbents threatens the promise of today's emerging networked information environment. The talk will offer a framework for understanding both the economics and politics of this transition.
John Silvia, Chief Economist, Wachovia Bank, N.A., introducer
Yochai Benkler, Professor of Law,Yale University, author of The Wealth of Networks
Sponsor: FedEx Corporation
2:00 PM
MIT Media Lab Tour
