The Politics of the Pocketbook

8:30-10:00 AM

Ballroom C

NABE Skills Session
Guided Tour of the U.S. National Economic Accounts
The GDP, corporate profits, and international transactions accounts: The new GDP-accounts structure described. BEA corporate profits explained. International transactions accounts parsed. And web-access and data-download facilities demonstrated.

Rosemary D. Marcuss, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Other speakers TBA

NABE Skills Session
The Useful Role of Forecast Surveys
Our panelists will discuss the value that various surveys play in better understanding the economy and each survey's useful role in accurate economic forecasting. This session is a must for economists operating in a business/consulting position.

“The NABE Surveys of Professional Business Economists”
Duncan H. Meldrum, Air Products/NABE President

“The NFIB Survey of U.S. Independent Business Owners”
William C. Dunkelberg, The National Federation of Independent Business

“The Blue Chip Survey of Professional Economists”
Kevin L. Kliesen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

“The Wall Street Journal Survey of Professional Economists”
Daniel Waggoner, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

12:00-1:45 PM

Luncheon
A View from Outside the Administration
The former Federal Reserve Board vice chairman and current economic adviser to the John F. Kerry campaign offers his opinions on economic policy.

Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University

2:00-3:15 PM

The Industry Outlook
Our panelists review the global outlook for the oil, automobiles, electronics, and the housing industries, touching upon topical regulatory and legislative issues.

John C. Felmy, American Petroleum Institute
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Company
Thomas F. Davis, Motorola
David W. Berson, Fannie Mae

3:15-3:45 PM

Networking Break

3:45-5 PM

Concurrent Sessions

Session A
The Regional Outlook
What is the outlook for the regions and major states in the United States and how will the U.S. industry outlook affect the various regions? To assist your company’s market research, find out which states are likely to be growing most rapidly over the next 18 months.

Richard Wobbekind, University of Colorado/Regional Utility Roundtable Chair, presiding
Sophia Koropeckyj, Economy.com
Jim Diffley, Global Insight
Sponsor: NABE Regional Utility Roundtable

Session B
Global Pocketbooks and Payments
How is information technology affecting globalization trends? How is IT revolutionizing how we do business? What are the risks and opportunities? This conference session will discuss the global electronic payments, prospects for adoption of new payment technologies, and the implications for cross-border economic growth.

Christopher Swann, Global Insight/Technology Roundtable Chair, presiding
Peter Burns, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
William Witherell, OECD
Sponsor: NABE Technology Roundtable

Session C
EU Enlargement and its Implications for the United States and Russia
Europe is undertaking a grand experiment. It is trying to set aside one thousand years of war, to open borders, and to advance trade.

“The Enlargement of the EU - Europe is Changing”
Hubert Fromlet, Swedbank, Stockholm/Blekinge Institute of Technology:
“Russia - Going for Sustainable High Growth?”
Cecilia Hermansson, Swedbank, Stockholm:
“The Enlargement from a Sectoral Perspektive”
Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, IKB Industriekreditbank, Germany
Sponsor: NabeEurope

6:00-7:30 PM

8:00-9:00 AM

Opening Address
Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting in the United States
Hear a prominent Federal Reserve Bank president, known for his thoughtful work and candor.

Anthony Santomero, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

9:15-10:30 AM

The NABE Outlook
This session features the release of the NABE Outlook, the “closely watched survey of economists,” according to abcNEWS.com. Produced quarterly, the survey is now in its 34th year.

Duncan H. Meldrum, Air Products/NABE President, presiding
Carl Tannenbaum, LaSalle Bank-ABN AMRO N.A./NABE Outlook Panel Lead

10:30-11:00 AM

Networking Break

11:00 -12:15 PM

II. Concurrent Sessions

Session A
Risks in the International Financial System
A sound banking system is essential to a well-functioning economy, and sound risk management practices are essential to achieving this end. Are there issues or situations on the horizon that might test this soundness? How should they be factored into forecasts, and what steps should be taken to mitigate their impact? Governor Bies will offer her thoughts, from the perspective of America's central bank.

Chris Varvares, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC/Financial Roundtable Chair, presiding
Susan Schmidt Bies, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Sponsor: NABE Financial Roundtable

Session B
Outsourcing to Asia
China and emerging Asia: saviours of global growth or job-absorbing drains on the rest of the world? To outsource or not to outsource, that is the question. Make sure you understand the real issues behind the media-hype, so that your company benefits from the rapidly growing Asian markets, perhaps through outsourcing.

Steven Latin-Kasper, National Truck Equipment Association/Corporate Planning Roundtable Chair, presiding
M. Terry Cooke, GC3S
Donald Straszheim, Straszheim Global Advisors
Sponsor: NABE Corporate Planning Roundtable

Session C
Health Care Abroad: Lessons for the U.S.A.
How do health care systems work in other parts of the world? Are there lessons to be learned for the U.S. health care system? Can your company benefit from a switch to a consumer-driven health plan, similar to ones that
operate in South Africa? How would you be affected by a single-payer plan similar to what exists in Canada or Britain?

John C. Goodman, National Center for Policy Analysis/Health Economics Roundtable Chair
Stuart Slutzky, Destiny Health
Sponsor: NABE Health Economics Roundtable

12:15-1:45 PM

Luncheon
Adam Smith Award Address
The State of Economic Linkages: A Retrospective and Prospective View
Lawrence Klein, Recipient of the NABE 2004 Adam Smith Award/1980 Nobel Laureate in Economics/University of Pennsylvania

Professor Lawrence Klein is a Keynesian economist, contributing significantly to this area of economics through his influential book, "The Keynesian Revolution," and through macroeconomic model simulations, analyzing the effectiveness of public spending and tax policies. He received his Ph.D. at MIT under the supervision of Paul Samuelson and began his career in macroeconomic model building at the University of Chicago. After a brief stint at Oxford, he was offered a position at the University of Pennsylvania and he is still with Penn today. In his early days at Penn, he worked on a series of models which became known as the Wharton models and founded Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. He is still affiliated with the industry as an advisor to Global Insight. In 1980, Professor Klein received the Nobel Prize in Economics for “the creation of economic models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies.”

2:00-3:15 PM

III. Concurrent Sessions

Session A
Measuring Trade Data: Is the Situation as Bad as it Looks?

Some economists have argued that the U.S. current account isn't really as bad as it looks and that measurement problems cause the U.S. position to
look worse than it is. This session will focus on measurement issues in the current account from the perspective of two data producers and one data
consumer.

Maurine Haver, Haver Analytics/NABE Statistics Committee Chair, presiding
Ralph Kozlow, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Art Ridgeway, Statistics Canada
Robert Sinche, Bank of America

Sponsor: NABE Statistics Committee

Session B
Contributed Papers Session
Winners of the fifth annual contributed papers competition will present their papers.

Pocketbook Predictions of Presidential Elections”
Patrick L. Anderson and Ilhan K. Geckil, Anderson Economic Group, LLC

“The Future Small Business Workforce: Will Labor
Shortages Exist?”
Bruce D. Phillips (author) and William C. Dunkelberg
(presenter)

Robert T. Crow, Business Economics Editor, presiding

Session C
The China Currency Peg
World Bank estimates (purchasing power parity) rank China as the second largest economy (60 percent of the United States in size). Gain insight in how Number Two pegs its currency to Number One.

Ted Chu, General Motors
David Hale, Hale Advisors LLC
Sponsor: International Roundtable

3:15-3:45 PM

Networking Break

3:45-5:00 PM

IV. Concurrent Sessions

Session A
Consumer Sentiment Going Into the Election
The economy can contribute significantly to the choices people make in the polling place. Hard statistics only tell part of the story, though; quite often, it is people's perceptions of conditions that bear most heavily on the balloting. Two leading monitors of consumer sentiment will discuss their views of our views as we head toward election day.

Doc J. Miller III
Mellon Private Wealth Management, presiding
Lynn Franco, The Conference Board
Richard Curtin, University of Michigan

Session B
The Cost of Terrorism: How Much Security Can We Afford?

What is the insurance industry’s view of terrorism insurance? Can it be insured? In addition, the panel will provide an update on the terrorist threat and counter-terrorism initiatives. Is there a way your company can plan for a worse-case scenario and reduce the costs through appropriate risk management ?

Kurt E. Karl, Swiss Re, presiding
Stephen E. Flynn, Council on Foreign Relations/National Security Studies
Robert P. Hartwig, Insurance Information Institute

Session C
The Effect of the Election on the Fiscal Policy Outlook
Where is tax and spending policy headed? Does it matter who is president?

Elinda Fishman Kiss, University of Maryland, presiding
Rudolph Penner, Urban Institute
Elizabeth Robinson, Congressional Budget Office

5:00-5:30 PM

NABE Business Meeting
Meet the new NABE board of directors and officers of the NABE Roundtables. Learn what we’ve accomplished over the past year. Help plan for the future and shape your professional association.

5:30-6:30 PM

Reception
After a long day of professional education, join colleagues and friends in the hotel for hors d’oeuvres and your favorite beverage.

8:00-9:15 AM

Breakfast
Key Issues for Monetary Policy: An ECB View
Jean-Claude Trichet , President, European Central Bank

The euro is five years old. The European Union has become twenty-five countries. The European Central Bank has a clearly defined inflation target of zero-to-two percent. Come hear the views of its new president.

9:15-9:45 AM

Networking Break

9:45-10:30 AM

NABE Presidential Address
NABE President Duncan Meldrum gives the 46th annual presidential address.

Rosemary D. Marcuss, Bureau of Economic Analysis/NABE Vice President, presiding
Duncan H. Meldrum, Air Products/NABE President

10:30-11:15 PM

A Case Study in the Evolution of a Manufacturing Company
The CEO of a Fortune 500 company discusses the strategy and processes the company used to grow into new markets and geographies.

John P. Jones III, Air Products
Sponsor: NABE Manufacturing Roundtable

11:15-12:00 PM

A View from the Administration Side
The chair of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers will brief us on his view of the economy policy, and where the economy is headed.

N. Gregory Mankiw, Council of Economic Advisers

12:30-2 PM

Luncheon
Joseph Stiglitz, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics/Columbia University

Professor Stiglitz will review the policies of the IMF and World Bank and their impact on global economic stability. This session will provide you with insight into how the IMF and World Bank policies can affect your sovereign-risk and market analysis for your company’s global strategic plans.