Opening Luncheon

Welcome
Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/ Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group

CORPORATE CONDUCT - Business Practices and Ethics in the Aftermath of the Stock Market Bubble: Critique of Public Policy Remedies to Rectify a Broken System
Of interest to attendees in this post-bubble period are the critical changes being made in public policy to correct revealed deficiencies in financial market structure and corporate conduct and whether these changes will be effective. Our opening keynote speaker will tell us his recommendations about how to fashion public policy given the current state of financial markets, Sarbanes-Oxley implementation, SEC enforcement and public opinion about our nation's corporate institutions.

Gary L. Ciminero, Executive Director, Rhode Island House Policy Office, introduction
D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead Jr. Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

Concurrent Sessions I

Session A
Stock Market Structure: Consumer Protection Issues and Managing Your Personal Investments After the “Bubble”
NABE members are the professionals in business economics, but they need to manage personal risks and investments much the same as the corporate entities they advise.

Mary Ann Greenwood, President, Greenwood & Associates, Inc., presiding
“Consumer Protection and Personal Risk Management”
Allen C. Grommet, Senior Economist, Cambridge Consumer Credit Index
“Security Markets and Individual Investment Management”
Donna Patterson, RIA, Beaty, Haynes & Patterson
"Independence and Biases of Analyst Research"
Charles L. Hill, Director of Research, Thompson First Call

Session B
NABE Survey on Economic Data Accuracy: Priorities and Approaches

Maurine Haver, President, Haver Analytics, presiding
Kathleen Utgoff, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Steven Landefeld, Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Frederick T. Knickerbocker, Associate Director for Economic Programs, Census Bureau
Sponsor: NABE Statistics Committee

Session C
Hard Lessons in High Tech
Nowhere have the lessons been harder than in the technology sector. This session will look at what has happened after the growth has receded from Silicon Valley.

Barbara Insel, Senior Economist, Lee Hecht Harrison, presiding
Christopher Swann, Senior Consultant, Global Insight
Robert L. Evans, Managing Partner, Symphony Technology Group
Randy Pond, Senior Vice President of Operations, Processes, and Systems, Cisco Systems Incorporated
Sponsor: NABE Technology Roundtable

Concurrent Sessions II

Session A
Corporate Conduct–Implementing Sarbanes-Oxley
With speakers from the SEC and OECD, this session has both a domestic and international perspective on the issues on corporate governments in the US, OECD, and in emerging markets and transition economies.

Elinda Fishman Kiss, Professor of Finance, University of Maryland, presiding
William Witherell, Director, Financial, Fiscal, & Enterprise Affairs, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Jonathan Sokobin, Senior Economist, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Session B
Economic Performance–Do Federal Budget Deficits Affect the Economy?
We've asked panelists with differing views to discuss whether or not federal budget deficits are bad for the economy. Looking beyond a simple yes or no answer, we will discuss how you should think about the potential effects of deficits on interest rates, investment, and savings.

Laurie J. Matthias, Senior Writer, Capital Guardian Trust Company, presiding
R. Glenn Hubbard, Russell L. Carson Professor of Economics and Finance, Columbia University and former chair, Council of Economic Advisers
Peter Orszag, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution

Session C
Regional Economic Performance and the Impact of State Fiscal Stress
This session will update participants on regional and state economic performance, along with the level of state fiscal stress. Due to time limitations the analysis will focus on the states served by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank and Wachovia Corporation. Other states and regions will be discussed during the question and answer period.

Richard Wobbekind, Associate Dean, University of Colorado, presiding
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist, Wachovia Corporation
John Robertson, Director, Regional Section, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Co-Sponsors: NABE Regional/Utility Roundtable and AUBER

NABE Business Meeting

Meet the new NABE board of directors and officers of the NABE Roundtables. Learn what we’ve accomplished over the past year. Help plan for the future and shape your professional association.

CEA Breakfast

At our traditional CEA Breakfast, hear the new Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers brief us on his view of the economy and where it is headed. We will also present the NABE Outlook Award to the best forecaster on our macroeconomic forecasting panel.

Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group, presiding
The Honorable N. Gregory Mankiw, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

Economic Performance – The NABE Outlook

This session features the release of the NABE Outlook, which is the “closely watched survey of economists,” according to abcNEWS.com. Produced quarterly, the survey is now in its thirty-third year.

Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist BMO Financial Group, presiding
Duncan H. Meldrum, NABE Vice President & Chief Economist, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
Michael R. Englund, Chief Economist, MMS International

Concurrent Sessions III

Session A
Financial Market Structure–Critique of Behavioral Finance and Macro Implications of Stock Market “Exuberance”
Was the stock market's late-nineties exuberance really “irrational?” Does this exuberance explain the “New Economy”? Our panelists will explore these two vexing questions posed in the aftermath of the last decade. One will remind us of other explanations for extreme stock valuations that do not abandon the postulates of the standard model in deference to the assertions of “behavioral finance.” Then, perhaps, what had seemed irrational might actually have been “rational exuberance.” Another of our panelists will present empirical evidence that the stock market exuberance itself was the lynch pin that created the impression that we had entered a “New Era Economy.”

Gary Ciminero, NABE Director and Director, Rhode Island House Policy Office, presiding
Ray Fair, John M. Musser Professor of Economics, Yale University
Richard Michaud, President and Chief Investment Officer, New Frontier Advisors

Session B
Economic Performance–Views from China, Japan, and the Far East
In this session, our speakers will discuss some of the major risks to the global economy that emanate from the Asian region (both Japan and non-Japan Asia).

Sara L. Johnson, Managing Director, Global Insight, presiding
William H. Overholt, Asia Policy Chair, RAND Corp.
Perry Wong, Research Economist, Milken Institute
Sponsor: NABE International Roundtable

Session C
Contributed Papers Session
Winners of the fourth annual contributed papers competition will present their papers.

Robert T. Crow, Editor, Business Economics, presiding

The Edmund A. Mennis Contributed paper Award goes to:

"Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System"
John Kitchen, Chief Economist, U.S. House of Representatives
Ralph Monaco, Economist, Office of Economic Policy, U.S. Treasury Department

The NABE Contributed Paper Award goes to:

" Corporate Bond Risk Premia: Have They Changed and Does
the Stock Market Affect It?"
Douglas Lamdin, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Maryland

"Capital Overhangs: Has Investment Spending Suffered from a Hangover?"
Jonathan McCarthy, Economist, FRB of New York

"Predicting Currency Crises - A Practical Application For Risk."
Christopher Mills, Vice President, Citigroup
Eleonora Omarova, Vice President, Citigroup

22nd Annual Adam Smith Award Address
Luncheon

Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group, presiding

Allan Meltzer, Professor of Political Economy and Public Policy at Carnegie-Mellon University

“The fame of Adam Smith rests so deservedly on his great work, the Wealth of Nations, that the fact is apt to be lost sight of, that long before he distinguished himself as a political economist he had gained a reputation, not confined to his own country, by his speculations in moral philosophy. The Theory of Moral Sentiments was first published in 1759, when its author was thirty-six; the Wealth of Nations in 1776, when he was fifty-three. . . From his ideal of life, political ambition and greatness were altogether excluded; it was his creed that happiness was equal in every lot, and that contentment alone was necessary to ensure it. "What," he asks, "can be added to the happiness of the man who is in health, who is out of debt, and has a clear conscience?"
--“Adam Smith” by James Anson Farrer, 1881.

NBER Session

The Challenges of Making Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment
Traditionally, two top economists from the National Bureau of Economic Research present in-depth discussions one of the NBER’s major program areas. This year the subject will be monetary economics and policy.

Richard D. Rippe, Managing Director/Chief Economist, Prudential Securities, Inc., presiding
"Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools"
Stephen G. Cecchetti, Professor of International Economics and Finance, Brandeis University
"Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy"
Kenneth D. West, Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin

Concurrent Session IV

Session A
Market Structure–The "Post-Bubble" Investing Climate: Back to Basics

Richard Berner, Managing Director & Chief U.S. Economist
Morgan Stanley & Co, presiding
James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, Wells Capital Management

Session B
Prospective Economic Performance–Cyclically Sensitive Industries
Unlike prior recession and recovery periods, some key consumer end markets such as housing and autos remained resilient even as the overall economy experienced subpar performance. Pre-emptive monetary policy likely reduced the adverse effect of the economic weakness on these interest sensitive sectors. Going forward, an important question will be the sustainability of what looks to be a high "sales plateau" in these markets. This session will address the outlook for these cyclically sensitive industries that supply these end markets.

Van Jolissaint, Chief Economist, DaimlerChyrsler, presiding
William C. Dudley, Director, U.S. Economic Research, Goldman Sachs & Company
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Director, Corporate Economics & Strategic Issues, Ford Motor Company

Session C
Economic Performance: Lessons Learned from the 1990s Productivity Growth Surge
What is the current take on the U.S. economy's structural (trend) productivity growth, and hence potential output growth? Relative to the 1973-95 period, how much acceleration, if any, have we seen in the economy’s trend labor productivity growth, and, if so, what were some of the identifiable sources of this faster growth? What lessons should forecasters and policymakers take from the period of the late 1990s, when an unexpected surge in labor productivity growth helped to constrain aggregate price pressures and contributed to faster than expected growth in tax revenues? Similarly, what lessons should consumers, business leaders and, financial market participants draw from this period of rapid growth? Is it necessarily true that forecasters, policymakers, and others with a vested interested in this area can only learn about structural economic changes slowly. If so, are policy mistakes thus unavoidable?

Kevin L. Kliesen, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, presiding
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director, Congressional Budget Office
Jack Triplett, Visiting Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution

Dollars and “Sense”: The Impact of the Strong-Dollar Policy on the U.S. Manufacturing Industry

Enrique P. Sanchez, Senior Vice President & Director, Country Risk Analysis, Bank of America, presiding
Daniel R. DiMicco, Vice Chairman, President, & CEO of Nucor Corporation

Concurrent Sessions V

Session A
“ New Economy” – The New Economy and Technology: Effects on Growth and Labor Markets
Even though the economy and the technology sector went into a tailspin, U.S. productivity has remained noticeably high. Researchers continue to investigate the effects of technological change on the economy and the claims of a “New Economy.” This session will focus on the new economy - labor productivity, relative wages and regional market differences.

Gary L. Ciminero, Executive Director, Rhode Island House Policy Office, presiding
Madeline Zavodny, Research Economist and Associate Policy Adviser, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank
Ross C. DeVol, Director, Regional and Demographic Studies, Milken Institute

Session B
Economic Performance–Institutionalizing a Low-Inflation Environment
With inflation driven down to close to zero, several economists–including a few Fed policymakers–have discussed whether some kind of inflation-targeting arrangement is needed to maintain price stability. Others think not, believing that if the wheel isn't broken, don't fix it. We'll debate the issues.

Ellis Tallman, Vice President & Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, presiding
William T. Gavin, Vice President & Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Stephen King, Economist, HSBC

Session C
Economic Performance – The Lagging Business Investment Recovery: First Down/Last Up?
Business fixed investment led the economy into recession and has yet to show growth. Is a full recovery possible without growth in business investment? When will excess capacity in sectors from manufacturing and power to offices and hotels stop being a brake on growth? This session explores both sectoral and macroeconomic issues involved.

Yorgos Papatheodorou, Chief Economist/Manager, Strategic Development, Lockwood Greene Engineers
Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers LLC
T. Kevin Swift, Senior Director, Industry Dynamics & Statistics, American Chemistry Council
Sponsor: NABE Manufacturing/Industry Roundtable

Awards Banquet

At our annual banquet, we will present the Adolph Abramson Award, the Abramson Scrolls, the Shiskin Award for Statistics, and the Mennis and NABE Contributed Papers Awards. AirTran Airways CEO and Chairman Joe Leonard will speak on the new model for airlines that his firm is implementing successfully.

Joe Leonard, CEO and Chairman, AirTran Airways

NABE Presidential Breakfast Address

Please join us when NABE President Tim O’Neil gives the 45th annual presidential address.

Duncan H. Meldrum, NABE Vice President & Chief Economist, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc., presiding
Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group

Prospective International Economic Performance
Canada and Mexico

The session examines the prospects for economic growth for the two largest trading partners of the United States. Can Canada's economy continue to outpace that of the United States as it has done for the past four years? Will Mexico remain on the path of sound macroeconomic policy and economic restructuring that have marked its progress since joining NAFTA?"

Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group, presiding
Warren Jestin, Chief Economist, Scotiabank Group

European Union Perspectives
Can Europe recover in a more sustained way despite fiscal restrictions for the three most important countries of the eurozone? The session looks particularly at Germany and France. Will German reforms succeed eventually? Can we expect potential growth of the EU countries to grow in the forthcoming years?

Hubert Fromlet, Chief Economist, Swedbank, Stockholm, introduction
A View from Germany
Joachim Scheide, Head, Business Cycles and Forecasting, Kiel Institute for Economics
A View from France
Martine Aubert, Chief Economist, Credit Commercial de France

Corporate Governance and Financial Reform Issues
In this session, speakers will address policy and market reforms focused on corporate governance and financial reform issues from their unique perspectives.

Stuart G. Hoffman, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group, presiding
Cynthia Glassman, Commissioner, Securities and Exchange Commission
Randall S. Kroszner, Professor of Economics, University of Chicago, former member, Council of Economic Advisers

Closing Luncheon

Tim O’Neill, NABE President & Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group
Robert R. Glauber, Chairman & CEO, National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD)
Robert R. Glauber has been an active member of the NASD Board since 1996. NASD is the largest self-regulatory body in the securities industry and the leading private-sector provider of financial regulatory services in the world. Mr. Glauber also served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for Finance from 1989-1992. Major policy initiatives during this period included the bailout of the S&L industry and a total overhaul of S&L regulation; legislation to modernize commercial bank regulation by permitting interstate branching and broader bank services; and revision of the auction procedures for selling Treasury securities in response to the Salomon Brothers bidding scandal. Prior to that, he was a professor of finance at the Harvard Business School. In 1987 he served as Executive Director of the Task Force on Market Mechanisms ("Brady Commission") appointed by President Reagan to study the October 1987 stock market crash.

Corporate Planning Roundtable Session

"Best Practices in Corporate Planning"
The speaker will discuss how corporate planning processes have changed to reflect the needs of today's environment and describe the processes used at several leading corporations.

Harry Homan, Senior Director, Strategy Development, Fluor Corporation, presiding
Seth Verry, Research Director, Corporate Strategy Board

Following the Q&A, the Corporate Planning Roundtable will hold a business meeting, which will describe our plans and give current and prospective members an opportunity to network.
Sponsor: NABE Corporate Planning Roundtable