12:00- 1:45 pm

Opening Luncheon
Declaring Recessions
Sponsored by the NFIB Research Foundation

We will explore the business cycle definition and its measurement this time around.

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding
Robert E. Hall, Chair, NBER Cycle Dating Committee

2:00- 3:15 pm

Skills Session I

A- Tools for Measuring, Monitoring, and Forecasting the Cycle

Compiling economic indicators: What's the best way to package analytical indicators to measure cycles - business, industry, company, etc. and/or shocks? This session is a "here's how" and "here's why" program that will examine several key and practical indicator forms: composite, diffusion and "basket" indicators and will discuss guidelines for the selection of cyclical and crisis indicators using qualitative to quantitative measures.

Michael P. Niemira, Senior Economist, Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi, presiding
Lessons from Business Cycle Indicators and Composite Indexes
Victor Zarnowitz, Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor, Economic Program, Conference Board
The Diffusion Index and Alternative Formulations
Ralph Kauffman, Spokesperson, Institute of Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Survey and Coordinator, Purchasing & Materials Management Program, University of Houston
A Newer Index Method -the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index
Jonas Fisher, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

B - Using Econometrics and Time Series Analysis

This information session is for those seeking an overview of VAR vs structural models as an approach to forecasting. We'll look at such questions as: Do these techniques to tell us more about cycles than other techniques? What is the usefulness of advanced smoothing (e.g. X-12)?

Robert Eisenbeis, SVP & Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, presiding
Ellis Tallman, Economist, FRB of Atlanta

C-The Data

"The Federal Government Budget and U.S. Tax and Spending Legislation: Economic Effects are Important, but the Field is Crowded"

Lee Price, Chief Economist, Senate Budget Committee majority, presiding

"Tracking GDP and the U.S. Federal Budget: The Information Runs Both Ways"
Rosemary Marcuss, Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis

"How Much Do Tax and Spending Proposals Cost: Do Macroeconomics Count?"
Dan L. Crippen, Director, U.S. Congressional Budget Office

3:15 - 3:45 pm

Opening Coffee & Networking Break

Sponsored by Motorola and Fannie Mae

3:45 - 5:00 pm

Skills Sessions II

A--Data Display

Put more power in your point: Tips and techniques to quickly organize, clearly analyze, and attractively present your data.

Elizabeth Webbink, President, Productivity by Design

B - Identifying Turning Points

Figuring out when the economy will dip into recession or will rebound puzzles all of us. Our speaker will help sort the pieces by finding the real time vs backward adjustment impact on building forecasts. We'll also explore the key factors and techniques for identifying forecast turning points.

Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Air Products & Chemicals Inc., presiding
Patrick J. Newport, Principal, DRI-WEFA

C - Resources and Data on the Web

We can't overstate the importance of data for our work. But there's lots of data available on the Web. How can we efficiently sort through it all? Join us for a look at what's useful on the Web and where to find it.

Christopher Swann, Principal, DRI-WEFA, presiding
William L. Goffe, Associate Professor, State University of New York at Oswego, Resources for Economists
Bruce Kratofil, NABE Web Master/President, BJK Research
Sponsored by the Technology Roundtable

6:00 -7:30 pm

Welcome Reception
Bloomberg News
1399 New York Avenue

Mingle with Bloomberg reporters and see how data from all over the world converges into coherent print, radio, and TV reports 24 hours a day at the new high-tech Bloomberg News Center in downtown Washington

7:30 - 9:00 am

CEA Breakfast

At our traditional CEA Breakfast the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, will brief us on his view of the economy and where it is headed. We will also present the NABE Outlook Award to the best forecaster on our macroeconomic forecasting panel.

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding
R. Glenn Hubbard, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
Presentation of the NABE Outlook Award.

9:15 - 10:30 am

Opening General Session
Business Cycles and the Macroeconomy-Setting the Stage and Where We Go from Here

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding

Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle
Robert D. McTeer, Jr., President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

NABE Outlook
The release of the NABE Outlook Survey of professional macroeconomic forecasters who are NABE members.
Tim O'Neill, NABE Vice President and Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, Bank of Montreal

10:30 - 11:30 am

Coffee & Networking Break

Sponsored by Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers

11:00 am -12:15 pm

Concurrent Session on Cycles I

A-Cycle Anatomy

Every quarter we survey a panel of more than 300 NABE members about conditions in their industries over the prior quarter. We also ask about future conditions. In this session, two analysts and writers of the NABE Industry Survey will present an in-depth look at its cyclical performance over the survey's 20-year history

Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., presiding
Peter Jaquette, Manager, Economic Analysis, Weyerhaeuser Company

B - Consumer Retail

Consumers' willingness to continue spending helped to moderate the recent downturn, despite rising layoffs and sharp declines in net worth. This session will examine why the household sector was resilient through this downturn, relative to past cycles. Panelists will focus on patterns in consumer sentiment, household debt burden, credit quality, net worth, and the impact of each of these factors on spending and savings behavior.

Michael E. Staten, Director, Credit Research Center, Georgetown University
Dean Maki, Vice President and Economist, Putnam Investments,
Richard Curtin, Director, Survey of Consumers, University of Michigan
Thomas J. Hickey, TrenData product Manager, Analytical Services, Trans Union LLC

C - NBER Session

Despite the euphoria about the growth of the economy in the latter part of the 1990s, our recent experience has reinforced the fact that the business cycle isn't dead. Exogenous factors like 9/11, the war, the abrupt movement in energy prices are shocks, or unanticipated disruptions, which may have contributed to the shape of the cycle. How has the recent downturn coupled with the surprisingly strong productivity numbers played out as compared with previous cycles? Are the recent numbers simply a measurement issue resulting from businesses having over-cut employment in the face of unanticipated strong demand, or are they representative of real changes in trend productivity.

Richard D. Rippe, Chief Economist, Prudential Securities, presiding
Robert J. Gordon, Professor, Northwestern University
John Haltiwanger, Professor, University of Maryland

D - Housing
Is Housing Still Cyclical?

Despite a national recession last year, home sales set an all-time high. Why? Is housing still one of the most cyclical sectors or not? And what does this imply for housing demand, and cyclicality, going forward?

David Berson, VP/Chief Economist, Fannie Mae, presiding
David Lereah, SVP/Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
Douglas Duncan, SVP/Chief Economist, Mortgage Bankers Association of America

12:15 - 1:45 pm

Luncheon

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding

Adam Smith Award Address
George Kaufman, Professor, Loyola University of Chicago
Edward J. Kane, Professor, Boston College
George Benston, Professor, Emory University

2:00 - 3:15 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles II

A - Capital Investment

Capital spending contributed disproportionately to the economic "boom" of the late 1990s and the subsequent "bust" that we are still living through. This session will feature speakers who will put current patterns in perspective and suggest the direction and magnitude of future capital expenditures, at the macro level and in particularly sensitive sectors - communications, computer and semiconductor. Attendees can expect to leave the session with a much better understanding of expected contributions (or lack thereof) by U.S. businesses to the current recovery as well as a distinction between secular and cyclical issues.

David R. Kotok, Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors, Inc. presiding
James Meil, Chief Economist, Eaton Corporation
Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

B - Financial

What was the economic impact of the Enron debacle and other accounting irregularities? Our speakers will discuss the earnings reports in the most recent cycle, and how accounting issues may have contributed to the timing and magnitude of the downturn in the economy and the stock market.

Mike Englund, Chief Market Economist, Standard & Poor's, presiding
Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Correspondent, CNBC
David Blitzer, Managing Director/Chief Investment Strategist, Standard and Poor's,
Sponsored by the NABE Financial Roundtable

C-Regional Issues

We are all aware that regional cycles can differ from the national business cycle, but how pervasive is this? Do some regions consistently differ from the national cycle? If so why? We will look at the historical evidence.

John E. Kleinheinz, Chief Economist, Greater Cleveland Growth Association, presiding
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Economy.com
Gerald A. Carlino, Economic Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

D - Distribution and Transportation Services

Focusing on the air, ground parcel, and freight segments of the transportation sector, the panel will describe the factors underlying the cyclical nature of the industry.

Gene Huang, Chief Economist, FedEx Corporation, presiding
Brian Campbell, President, Campbell-Hill Aviation Group
Satish Jindel, Principal, SJ Consulting
Ted Scherck, President, Colography Group

3:15 -3:45 pm

Coffee & Networking Break

Sponsored by Ford Motor Company

3:45 - 5:00 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles III

A - Surveys

Technology has made it easier to undertake surveys, and the media appetite for current and unusual information has produced a surge in survey activity. "Macro" data are, in fact, collected with "surveys." This session examines the quality of these surveys, from sampling and sample frame issues, to the release and interpretation of survey results.

William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist, National Federation of Independent Business, presiding
Richard Curtin, Director, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan
Michael Horrigan, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections
BLS

B - Government and Policy
U.S. Business Conditions and Outlook

Assistant Secretary Richard Clarida will provide a presentation on "U.S. Business Conditions and Outlook." He will include a discussion of economic policy.

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Director, Corp Economics, Ford Motor Company, presiding
Richard H. Clarida, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, U.S. Department of the Treasury

C -- Energy

If you have an interest in the oil and natural gas industries, plan to attend this session. The speakers will discuss both the domestic and international cycles and the factors affecting them.

Elizabeth Webbink, President, Productivity by Design, presiding
Edgard Habib, Chief Economist, ChevronTexaco
James T. Jensen, Consultant

5:00-5:30 pm

NABE Business Meeting

Join us and meet the new NABE board of directors and the officers of the NABE Roundtables. Learn what our accomplishments have been over the past year. Offer your ideas and input on our future plans. Help shape your organization.

6:00 -7:30 pm

Pre Banquet Reception

After a long day of professional education, join colleagues and friends in the hotel for hors d'oeuvres and your favorite beverage. Then adjourn to our awards banquet.

7:00 - 9:00 pm

Banquet

At our annual banquet, we will present awards for service to NABE and to the profession. These include the Adolph Abramson Award, the Abramson Scrolls, the Shiskin Award for Statistics, and the Mennis and the NABE Contributed Papers Awards. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor will speak on the nature of global business cycles.

Harvey Rosenblum, SVP & Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding
Global Business Cycles
John B. Taylor, Under Secretary for International Affairs, Treasury Dept.

Speech (Off-site link)

7:30 - 9:00 am

Presidential Address

Tim O'Neill, NABE Vice President and Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, Bank of Montreal, presiding
Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

9:15 - 10:30 am

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles IV

A - Manufacturing Durables

This session will discuss the role of manufacturing durables - spanning consumer and business end markets - across the business cycle, with special emphasis on how changes in the inflation/interest rate fluctuations may affect demand for these durable goods during 2003.

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Director of Corporate Economics, Ford Motor Company, presiding
Van Jolissaint, Director of Corporate Economics, DaimlerChrysler Corporation
Jan Hatzius, Vice President and Senior Economist, Goldman Sachs

B - Insurance/Health/Pharmaceuticals

Jack Rodgers, Director of Health Policy Economics, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, presiding
The Insurance Industry in the Wake of September 11th
Kurt Karl, Head of Economic Research, North America, Swiss Re
Lags in the Response of Health Spending to Changes in Aggregate Income
Sheila Smith, Senior Economist, US Department of Health and Human Services
Business Cycles in Dental Services, Revenues, and Income
L. Jackson Brown, Associate Executive Director, Health Policy Research Center, American Dental Association
Does the Business Cycle Affect Health Insurance Coverage?
Deborah Chollet, Senior Fellow, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Sponsored by the NABE Health Economics Roundtable

C - Contributed Papers

Sponsored by Bank One
Winners of the third annual contributed papers competition will present their papers.

Two papers have been selected for awards and presentation from the 2002 NABE Contributed Papers Competition.

The Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award goes to:
"Stock Prices, Inflation and Monetary Policy"
by John A. Tatom, Executive in Residence, De Paul University

The NABE Contributed Paper Award goes to:
"Age Cohort Analysis and the S&P500 Dividend Yield - the Pig in the Python and a Bear Market"
by Jim Deegan, Principal, Jim Deegan & Associates,

Robert Crow, Editor of Business Economics®, Stanford University, presiding

D - International I

Japan’s Revitalization: No Growth without Reform

Greg Mount, Senior International Economist, Bank One, presiding
Shunichiro Ushijima, Economic Adviser to the Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy on the International Economic Affairs, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Sponsored by the NABE International Roundtable

10:30 - 11:00 pm

Au Revoir Coffee and Networking Break

Sponsored by Greenwood & Associates, Inc.

11:00 - 12:15 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles V

A- Asset Prices

Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, presiding
Owen Lamont, Professor, University of Chicago
Richard Berner, Chief US Economist, Morgan Stanley
Jonathan Francis, Senior Vice President and Senior Economist, Putnam Investments

B - Utility and Related Energy Markets

Economic Report Card on Utility Restructuring and Energy Market (Mis-) Behavior: Impacts of Regulatory Shifts and Trading Market Shocks
This panel will consider such issues as whether utility restructuring added to or ameliorated the macro shocks. Now that we have an even better perspective of what happened in California last year, what lessons can we draw from the utility industry and what structural reforms are suggested. We will also discuss whether or not the contrasting regulatory situations across states and energy sectors contributed to the macro cycle.

Gary Ciminero, Acting Executive Director, Rhode Island House Policy Office and Chair of NABE Regional/Utility Roundtable, presiding
Robert Crow, Stanford University
Robert J. Cuomo, Principal, General Consulting Group, DRI-WEFA
Matthew Brown, Program Director, The Energy Project, National Conference of State Legislatures

Sponsored by the NABE Regional Utility Roundtable

C - Manufacturing and Inventories

Lean And Mean: Volatility in the Manufacturing Inventory Cycle and its Implications
Many past business cycles have been driven in part by the manufacturing inventory cycle, although it is clear that inventory movements are hard to model and predict and may increase output instability. In recent years inventories have clearly become leaner, and inventory and supply management more sophisticated. Does this mean that the inventory cycle is more or less of a destabilizing influence in manufacturing? What are the implications for the economy as a whole? This session combines analysis of the recent performance of two sectors (chemicals and hi-tech equipment) with economic research on the inventory cycle to answer these questions and more.

Yorgos Papatheodorou, Chief Economist/Manager Strategic Development, Lockwood Greene Engineers, presiding
Andreas Hornstein, Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Carl Wheeldon, VP Operations, Bristol Myers Squibb (retd.)
Doug Andrey, Principal Analyst/Director of Finance, Semiconductor Industry Association (via teleconference)
Kevin Swift, Senior Director Industry Dynamics and Statistics, American Chemistry Council

Sponsored by the NABE Manufacturing Roundtable

D - International II

The European Cycle—Has There Been Anything "New?"

Hubert Fromlet, SVP & Chief Economist, Swedbank, presiding
Hans-Helmut Kotz, Member, Governing Board, Deutsche Bundesbank

12:30 - 2:00 pm

Closing Luncheon

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding

Join us and enjoy the Gross National Product. The Washington Post calls the GNP the "capitol's satirical gang. . .always funny." The GNP turns "headlines into punchlines" with sketches, musical parodies, and skitcoms centered on national politics.