12:00- 1:45 pm

Opening Luncheon
Declaring Recessions
Sponsored by the NFIB Research Foundation

Robert E. Hall, Chair, NBER Cycle Dating Committee

Business Cycle Dating Committee Latest Release (link off site)

2:00- 3:15 pm

Skills Session I

A- Tools for Measuring, Monitoring, and Forecasting the Cycle

Michael Niemira, Senior Economist, Bank of Tokyo

Slideshow

Lessons from Business Cycle Indicators and Composite Indexes
Victor Zarnowitz, Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor, Economic Program, Conference Board

The Diffusion Index and Alternative Formulations
Ralph Kauffman, Spokesperson, Institute of Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Survey and Coordinator, Purchasing & Materials Management Program, University of Houston
Slideshow (PDF)

A Newer Index Method -the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index
Jonas Fisher, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Slideshow (PDF)

B - Using Econometrics and Time Series Analysis

Ellis Tallman, Economist, FRB of Atlanta

Slideshow (PDF) and article (PDF)

C-The Data

"The Federal Government Budget and U.S. Tax and Spending Legislation: Economic Effects are Important, but the Field is Crowded"

Lee Price, Chief Economist, Senate Budget Committee majority, presiding

"Tracking GDP and the U.S. Federal Budget: The Information Runs Both Ways"
Rosemary Marcuss, Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Slideshow (PDF)

"How Much Do Tax and Spending Proposals Cost: Do Macroeconomics Count?"
Dan L. Crippen, Director, U.S. Congressional Budget Office

3:45 - 5:00 pm

Skills Sessions II

A--Data Display

Elizabeth Webbink, President, Productivity by Design

Slideshow and spreadsheets (Zip file)

B - Identifying Turning Points

Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Air Products & Chemicals Inc., presiding
Patrick J. Newport, Principal, DRI-WEFA

Slideshow (PDF)

C - Resources and Data on the Web

William L. Goffe, Associate Professor, State University of New York at Oswego, Resources for Economists

Slideshow (PDF)

Bruce Kratofil, NABE Web Master/President, BJK Research LLC

7:30 - 9:00 am

CEA Breakfast

R. Glenn Hubbard, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
Presentation of the NABE Outlook Award.

Speech (PDF)

9:15 - 10:30 am

Opening General Session
Business Cycles and the Macroeconomy-Setting the Stage and Where We Go from Here

Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle
Robert D. McTeer, Jr., President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

NABE Outlook

Tim O'Neill, NABE Vice President and Executive Vice President/Chief Economist, Bank of Montreal

NABE Outlook

11:00 am -12:15 pm

Concurrent Session on Cycles I

A-Cycle Anatomy

Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.

Slideshow (PDF)

B - Consumer Retail

Michael E. Staten, Director, Credit Research Center, Georgetown University
Dean Maki, Vice President and Economist, Putnam Investments,
Richard Curtin, Director, Survey of Consumers, University of Michigan

Speech (PDF)

Thomas J. Hickey, TrenData product Manager, Analytical Services, Trans Union LLC

Paper (PDF)

C - NBER Session

Robert J. Gordon, Professor, Northwestern University

Slideshow (PDF)

John Haltiwanger, Professor, University of Maryland

Slideshow (PDF)

D - Housing
Is Housing Still Cyclical?

David Berson, Fannie Mae

Slideshow

David Lereah, SVP/Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
Douglas Duncan, SVP/Chief Economist, Mortgage Bankers Association of America

12:15 - 1:45 pm

Luncheon

Adam Smith Award Address
George Kaufman, Professor, Loyola University of Chicago

Speech (PDF)

Edward J. Kane, Professor, Boston College

Slide Show (PDF) and speech

George Benston, Professor, Emory University

Speech (PDF)

2:00 - 3:15 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles II

A - Capital Investment

James Meil, Chief Economist, Eaton Corporation

Slideshow (PDF)

Chris Varvares, President, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

Slideshow (PDF)

B - Financial

Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Correspondent, CNBC

Speech (PDF) and Slideshow (PDF)

David Blitzer, Managing Director/Chief Investment Strategist, Standard and Poor's,
Sponsored by the NABE Financial Roundtable

C-Regional Issues

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Economy.com
Gerald A. Carlino, Economic Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

D - Distribution and Transportation Services

Gene Huang, Chief Economist, FedEx Corporation

Slideshow (PDF)

Brian Campbell, President, Campbell-Hill Aviation Group

Slideshow (PDF)

Satish Jindel, Principal, SJ Consulting

Slideshow (PDF)

Ted Scherck, President, Colography Group

3:45 - 5:00 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles III

A - Surveys

Richard Curtin, Director, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan

Speech (PDF)

Michael Horrigan, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections
BLS

Slideshow (PDF)

B - Government and Policy
U.S. Business Conditions and Outlook

Richard H. Clarida, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, U.S. Department of the Treasury

Speech (Link off site)

C -- Energy

Ronald Promboin, Ph.D.

Slideshow

John C. Felmy, Chief Economist and Director, American Petroleum Institute

Slideshow (PDF)

James T. Jenson, Consultant

Slideshow (PDF)

7:00 - 9:00 pm

Banquet

Global Business Cycles
John B. Taylor, Under Secretary for International Affairs, Treasury Dept.

Speech (Link off-site)

7:30 - 9:00 am

Presidential Address

Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Senior Vice President/Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Speech (PDF) and Slide Show (PDF)

9:15 - 10:30 am

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles IV

A - Manufacturing Durables

Van Jolissaint, Director of Corporate Economics, DaimlerChrysler Corporation

Slideshow (PDF)

Jan Hatzius, Vice President and Senior Economist, Goldman Sachs

Slideshow (PDF)

B - Insurance/Health/Pharmaceuticals

The Insurance Industry in the Wake of September 11th
Kurt Karl, Head of Economic Research, North America, Swiss Re
Lags in the Response of Health Spending to Changes in Aggregate Income
Sheila Smith, Senior Economist, US Department of Health and Human Services
Business Cycles in Dental Services, Revenues, and Income
L. Jackson Brown, Associate Executive Director, Health Policy Research Center, American Dental Association
Does the Business Cycle Affect Health Insurance Coverage?
Deborah Chollet, Senior Fellow, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

C - Contributed Papers

The Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award goes to:
"Stock Prices, Inflation and Monetary Policy"
by John A. Tatom, Executive in Residence, De Paul University

The NABE Contributed Paper Award goes to:
"Age Cohort Analysis and the S&P500 Dividend Yield - the Pig in the Python and a Bear Market"
by Jim Deegan, Principal, Jim Deegan & Associates,

Paper (PDF)

D - International I

Japan’s Revitalization: No Growth without Reform

Shunichiro Ushijima, Economic Adviser to the Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy on the International Economic Affairs, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

Slide show (PDF)

10:30 - 11:00 pm

Au Revoir Coffee and Networking Break

Sponsored by Greenwood & Associates, Inc.

11:00 - 12:15 pm

Concurrent Sessions on Cycles V

A- Asset Prices

Owen Lamont, Professor, University of Chicago
Richard Berner, Chief US Economist, Morgan Stanley
Jonathan Francis, Senior Vice President and Senior Economist, Putnam Investments

B - Utility and Related Energy Markets

Robert Crow, Stanford University

Slideshow (PDF)

Robert J. Cuomo, Principal, General Consulting Group, DRI-WEFA

Slideshow (PDF)

Matthew Brown, Program Director, The Energy Project, National Conference of State Legislatures

Slideshow (PDF)

Sponsored by the NABE Regional Utility Roundtable

C - Manufacturing and Inventories

Andreas Hornstein, Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Slideshow (PDF)

Carl Wheeldon, VP Operations, Bristol Myers Squibb (retd.)
Doug Andrey, Principal Analyst/Director of Finance, Semiconductor Industry Association (via teleconference)

Slideshow (PDF)

Kevin Swift, Senior Director Industry Dynamics and Statistics, American Chemistry Council

Slideshow (PDF)

Sponsored by the NABE Manufacturing Roundtable

D - International II

The European Cycle—Has There Been Anything "New?"

Hans-Helmut Kotz, Member, Governing Board, Deutsche Bundesbank

Slideshow (PDF)