12:30-2:00

Keynote Luncheon
The NABE Presidential Address

Harvey Rosenblum, Senior VP & Director of Research, NABE Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding
Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Managing Director/Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley

2:15-3:15

Educational Sessions 1

N. - Exchange Rate Regimes
Harvest Room
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Company, presiding
Dallas Sanford Batten, Director and Senior Economist, CDC Investment Management Corp.
Jim O'Neill, Chief Currency Economist, Goldman Sachs
Catherine L. Mann, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics
The debate regarding optimal exchange rate regimes continues to be informed by recent experience in both developed and developing economies. These panelists will also discuss the implications of recent experiences for an improvement in exchange rate policies.

A. - Contributed Papers Session
NY Harbor-Hudson Room
Co-sponsored by Fannie Mae
Robert Crow, Stanford University, presiding
Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
Two winning papers have been selected for this presentation. The winner of the Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award is "The Internet's Contribution to U.S. Productivity Growth" by Ernest Goss, Professor of Economics, Creighton University; and the winner of the NABE Contributed Paper Award is "Productivity: What Is It, and Why Do We Care About It?" by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Charles Steindel, Senior Vice President and Kevin Stiroh, Senior Economist.
Robert Crow, Stanford University, presiding

B. - Retail Industry Outlook
Canal Street/Barnum's Museum
James F Smith, University of North Carolina, presiding
Susan Sterne, President and Chief Economist, Economic Analysis Associates, Inc

e. - Information Services
Harvest II
You Can Always Get What You Want Finding and Manipulating Real-Time Economic Data
Mike McKee, Bloomberg News
Terry Barrett, Bloomberg News
Galen Meyer, Bloomberg LP
Businesses and investors are increasingly operating in real time, putting ever-more pressure on economists to deliver faster and more accurate analysis of breaking news and statistics. Economists have a choice of doing that work themselves, or having it done for them. Either way technology is keeping up with the data flow, allowing sophisticated manipulation and analysis. The panelists will discuss the various sources of real-time and historical data, and demonstrate how to use it to analyze and forecast developments in the economy using the Bloomberg, the most sophisticated analysis tool available today

3:15 - 3:45

Coffee and Networking Break
Liberty Room/Exhibit Hall
Co-sponsored by The Conference Board and NABE

3:45 - 4:45

NABE Business Meeting

Richard Berner, Morgan Stanley and NABE President
The NABE President will conduct the annual business meeting.

6:00 - 7:30

Opening Night Reception Midtown at Morgan Stanley

Enjoy an evening of refreshments, networking and great views of Manhattan. Vikram Pandit, Co-President and Co-Chief Operating Officer, Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities, will provide welcome remarks.

During the NABE Business Meeting, we will provide subway farecards to all registered attendees. To get to Morgan Stanley by train, exit the hotel through the lobby into 1 World Trade Center and the World Trade Center concourse. Follow the signs for the 1or 9 trains, and take either the 1 or 9 line to the 50th street station.

7:45 - 9:30 am

CEA Breakfast and NABE Outlook
Grand Ballroom I & II
Sponsored by Bloomberg

Get the results and interpretations of the newly released NABE Outlook survey-a quarterly survey of NABE professional macroeconomic forecasters.

Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Managing Director/Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley
Harvey Rosenblum, Senior VP & Director of Research, NABE Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

A View from the Administration
R. Glenn Hubbard, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
Hear the Administration's policy options for directing the economy.

Presentation of the NABE Outlook Award

9:30 - 10:30

Promoting Economic Growth: What Monetary Policy Can and Cannot Do
Stuart Hoffman, PNC Corp, Presiding
Anthony Santomero, FRB of Philadelphia
William Poole, FRB of St. Louis
Hear insights from two Fed policymakers on the contributions( and limitations) that monetary policy can make toward achievement of sustained economic growth
with low (or no) inflation. Learn about the implications for monetary policy as a complement to stimulative fiscal policies likely in full force this autumn.

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee and Networking Break
Co-sponsored by Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

11:00 - 12:00

Educational Sessions 2

N. - New Policy Options as Washington Enters the Budget Surplus Era
Harvest Room
Gregory Valliere, Schwab Washington Research Group
Ken Kies, PricewaterhouseCoopers Washington National Tax Services
With huge budget surpluses likely for the rest of this decade, policymakers are weighing a wide range of new policies: another tax cut, a Medicare prescription drug benefit, Social Security–reform and, of course, new spending on everything from education to defense. This
panel will look at what may emerge from the narrowly divided congress in the year remaining before the pivotal 2002 elections.

A. - Technology, Diffusion, and Regional Development: An AUBER Perspective
Canal Street/Barnum's Museum
Marshall Vest, Univ of Arizona, presiding
Business Economics as a Strategic Program of AUBER Units
Tom S. Witt, West Virginia University
Assessing the Regional Impact of a Business Through Its Fiscal and Genealogical Contributions
Richard Wobbekind, University of Colorado at Boulder
Measuring Regional Innovative Capacity and Achievement of High-Technology Export Market Share
R. Keith Schwer, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
The Association of University Business and Economic Research (AUBER) member organizations engage in a wide spectrum of applied research with a regional focus. This session looks at research projects measuring the economic impact of business (with a unique application of genealogy), innovation and regional competitiveness. This session will be of special interest to those concerned with regional policy issues, and university-based members who engage in applied research.

B. - Information Technology Industry
Harvest Room
Doug Andrey, Director Information Systems & Finance, Semi-Conductor Industry Association
Rebecca Burr, Manager, Market Analysis, Xilinx, Inc
James Seifert, Strategic Planning Manager, Agere
The role of information technology in the U.S. economy in the last few years was aptly stated by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan when he stated “An economy that 20 years
ago seemed to have seen its better days is displaying a remarkable run of economic growth that appears to have its roots in ongoing advances in technology.” With the
recent downturn in high tech with the dot com shakeout, what does the future hold for this key industry and for your firm?

e. - Web-site development
NY Harbor- Hudson Room
Bruce Kratofil, BJK Research & NABE Webmaster
Web sites are a valuable marketing and communications tool for consultants and small businesses. What do they cost, and how do you get one? Should you do it yourself, or should you hire a pro? If you do it yourself, what do you need to know? If you hire a pro, what do you need to know?

12:30 - 2:00

Adam Smith Award Luncheon
Grand Ballroom I & II
Sponsored by the Bank of Montreal Group of Companies

"What Would Adam Smith Say Now?"

Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman and Company
Legendary economic forecaster Henry Kaufman, President, Henry Kaufman and Company, will receive NABE's highest honor, the Adam Smith Award. Kaufman, whom Business Week calls "one of the greatest financial thinkers of our time," is best known for his extraordinary ability to analyze interest rates and forecast the economy. He will present the Adam Smith Award Address.

2:15 - 3:15

Equity and Fixed Income Strategies in a Market at the Cusp
Grand Ballroom I
Maureen Allyn, Managing Director/Chief Economist, Scudder Kemper Investments, presiding
Nancy Lazar, Executive Vice President, ISI Group, Inc.
Michael Goldstein, Chief Strategist, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Wall Street often seems to abide by rules of its own, leaving economists scratching their heads about what makes stocks and bonds tick. Nancy Lazar and Michael Goldstein are two of a rare breed indeed--Wall Street experts who can translate which economic fundamentals matter to Wall Street and how those fundamentals impact
financial markets.

3:15 - 3:45

Coffee and Networking Break
Liberty/Exhibit Hall
Sponsored by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)

3:45 - 4:45

Educational Sessions 3

N. - International Outlook
Harvest I
David McClain, Dean, University of Hawaii, presiding
Jesper Koll, Chief Economist, Merrill Lynch, Japan
Eric Chaney, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley, London
Global economic growth is being integrated by the sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy. Hear two experts discuss the economic outlook for Japan and Asia (Koll) and the
European Union (Chaney) as business leaders and policymakers in those regions react to both their own domestic and international challenges.

A. - Statistics: "New" Economies, Hedonic Measures, And International Comparability
Harvest II
Rosemary Marcuss, Deputy Director, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, presiding
Steven Landefeld, Director, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Kevin Stiroh, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
New measurement techniques - especially quality-adjusted measures (sometimes called "hedonic" measures) - are being used to fill in the picture of economic growth in today's complex economy. The participants in this session will talk about what we're learning about the sources of economic growth and how different measurement techniques can affect the comparability of growth measures produced in different countries.

B. - Pharmaceutical Outlook
NY Harbor/Hudson River
William O. Kerr, Director, PENTA Advisory Services/NCI, presiding
David Balto, Attorney, White and Case
Michael Scherer, Professor, Harvard University
Questions that we will consider include: Are drug prices (or profits) too high or do they represent fair compensation for R&D and product development? How does the U.S.
compare in terms of cost and availability of pharmaceuticals with Europe and elsewhere? Can the pharmaceuticals industry maintain spending levels on R&D without the expectation of patent protection in the U.S.
(and foreign markets)? Join us to explore these and other questions.

e. - Economic Analysis: Tea-Leaf Reading, Soothsyaing, or Quantitative Business Analysis?
Oral Capps, Forecasting and Business Analytics, LLC, Professor, Texas A&M University

5:15- 8:00

5:15 - 6:00 pm; Banquet: 6:00 - 8:00 pm
Grand Ballroom Foyer and Grand Ballroom

Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Managing Director/Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley,
presiding
Walter Mossberg, Personal Technology Columnist, Wall Street Journal

Walt Mossberg is the author and creator of the weekly Personal Technology column in The Wall Street Journal, which has appeared every Thursday since 1991. He also writes a second weekly column in the Journal, called Mossberg's Mailbox, in which he answers readers' questions. Newsweek magazine calls Mr. Mossberg "a champion of the technology-befuddled everyman" and "the most powerful arbiter of consumer tastes in the computer world today."

8:00 - 9:30

NABE Leaders in Business Breakfast
Grand Ballroom I & II
Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Managing Director/Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley,
presiding
Robert G. Scott, President and Chief Operating Officer, Morgan Stanley

9:30 - 10:30

Global Financial Market Issues
Grand Ballroom I
Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, presiding
Gerald Corrigan, Goldman Sachs

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee and Networking Break
Liberty/Exhibit Hall
Sponsored by PNC Financial Services Group

11:00 - 12:00

Educational Sessions 4

N. - Demographics/Census
Harvest I
Maurine Haver, President, Haver Analytics, presiding
Kenneth Prewitt, Dean, Graduate Faculty, New School University, Director of the 2000 Census

A. - NBER Session
Harvest II
Richard D. Rippe, Managing Director & Chief Economist, Prudential Securities, presiding
Charles Calomiris, Paul M. Montrone Professor of Private Enterprise, Columbia University
Michael Bordo, Professor, Rutgers University & NBER
The international economic environment contains attractive opportunities as well as daunting risks; the record of the past decade provides many examples. In this session, we
will explore these prospects from a number of perspectives

• The IMF and International Crises
• Globalization in Historical Perspective

B. - Basic Industries
NY Harbor- Hudson River
Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
Edgard Habib, Chevron Corporation
Peter Jaquette, Manager Economic Analysis, Weyerhaeuser Com
Economists from the oil, chemical, and paper industries briefly discuss their roles at their companies, then turn to the current situation and outlook for their industries. A question and answer period will give the audience an
opportunity to learn more about basic industry in the current economic cycle, the inter-relationship among these industries, and the role of an economist at a basic industry
company.

e. - NABE and the Media
Canal Street-Barnum's Museum
Diane Swonk, Chief Economist/Senior Vice President, Bank One Corporation, moderator
Mark Haines, Anchor, CNBC Squawk Box
Connie Mitchell-Ford, Economics Editor, Wall Street Journal
Gerard Baker, Washington Correspondent, Financial Times
This session examines the ethics of reporting economics in the wake of what has been an explosion in financial news. Has widespread downsizing on the macro side of the profession opened the door to armchair economists and charlatans in the financial news? Has the diversity and depth of the debate on the economy been compromised? If so, how do those who report the news get the story right. We have some of the top pros in the business to take a closer look at how economics is understood by the masses.

12:15 - 2:00

Keynote Luncheon
Grand Ballroom I & II
Co-sponsored by the Ford Motor Company

Richard B. Berner, NABE President and Managing Director/Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley
presiding
Jacob Frenkel, President, Merrill Lynch International

2:00 - 3:30

Post Conference Session

Visit to the New York Fed, including the FOMC Desk and Gold Room (This session is sold out- at registration, you can be added to a waiting list.)

Registration Information