\ 000000000 0 0 0 0 0000000000000000000 0!0"0#0$0%0&0'0(0)0*0+0,0-0.0/000102030405060708090:0;0<0=0>0?0@0A0B0C0D0E0F0G0H0I0J0K0L0M0N0O0P0Q0R0S0T0V0W0X0Y0Z0[0\0000000000 0r 0r 0 00000000000000q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q 0q 0q 0q 0q 0q0q0u000q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0q0t0u 0tu!0s"0q#0q$0q%0q&0q(0q)0q*0q+0q,0q-0q/0q0 0 000 0 0 0 0  0 0 0 0  0 000 0 000 0 000 0 000 0 00 0 !0 "0#0$0 %0 &0'0(0 )0 *0+0,0 -0 .0/000 10 203040 50 607080 90 :0 ;0 <0 Ew'wGOGO GOGOH H H H 4H     $% +, 23 9: @A GH NO CBCOPYL DDES0F96* DDES1196~ DDES127EWsW DDES12B6 DDES130E DDES18CE[[ DDES194E/q/ DDES1976ZZ DDES199EZZ DDES19AE DDES1AEEXX DDES1AFEWW DDES1B0E DDES1B1666 DDES1B6E~ DDES1BDEWW DDES20FE DDES210EZZ DDES213E>  DDES21BE* DDES2236 DDES296E!q! DDES297E9~9 DDES2986WsW DDES2996q DDES29C6WW DDES2A06ZZ DDES2A16ZZ DDES2A1EKK DDES2A2ELL DDES2A5E DDES2A66 DDES2A6E DDES2B1E* DDES36D6* DDES3A66 DDES3AAE DDES3ABE DDES3AD6 DDES3AEE  DDES3AF6>  DDES3B56* DDES3BD6* DDES3C2E DDES3C3E*  DDES3C86 DDES3D06 DDES3D16KK DDES3D36LL DDES42C6 DDES439E DDES44BE* DDES4516* DDES463Eq DDES4646 DDES4676KK DDES4686 DDES46E6* DDES46FE* DDES4716*  DDES47AE DDES47BEZZ DDES4B86ZZ DDES4C16[[ DDES4C5E DDES4C66* DDES4F0E>  DDES4FB6 DDES5056WW DDES53AEII DDES5416 DDES5426WW DDES56AEZZ DDES56BEWW DDES56CE DDES56EEII DDES59A6VV DDES59B6WW DDES59F69~9 DDES5A1E66 DDES5BFE DDES5C1E DDES5D9E* DDES5DA6WW DDES5DAE* DDES5E1EWW DDES5E6Eq DDES5F66XX DDES5FB6 DDES5FC6WW DDES602E DDES623E DDES64D6q DDES659EVV DDES65B6* DDES66069~9 DDES661666 DDES66FE* DDES677E DDES678E* DDES679E* DDES67AE* DDES67BE* DDES67CE* DDES67FE>  DDES682E DDES683EZZ DDES689E DDES6906 DDES6916* DDES6926* DDES6936* DDES6946* DDES6956* DDES695E DDES6966q DDES69B6 DDES69C6*  DDES69DE DDES69E6* DDES69EE* DDES69F6* DDES69FE* DDES6A06* DDES6A0E*E DDES6A1E* DDES6A26 DDES6A4ELL DDES6DFE>  DDES6E0E DDES6E5E  DDES6E66 DDES6E9E  DDES6EE6VsV DDES702E&& DDES70EE* DDES70FE* DDES7116* DDES7126* DDES714E DDES7196ZZ DDES71A6 DDES726E* DDES729E* DDES72C6* DDES72CE* DDES72EE* DDES7416* DDES756E* DDES757EWW DDES75EE DDES765E DDES766E>  DDES769E* DDES786E* DDES78D6I~I DDES791Eq DDES793E~ DDES7AA6TT DDES7B46* DDES7B96 DDES7BAE DDES7C76 DDES7E46* DDES7F6EZZ DDES82FEDF DDES8466VV DDES850E* DDES8646WsW DDES864EZZ DDES8656q DDES870Es DDES87BE DDES87CE* DDES87DE* DDES87EE* DDES87FE* DDES880E* DDES881E(q( DDES883E>  DDES8846~ DDES886E DDES887EZZ DDES88CE* DDES8946q DDES8D8E DDES8DB6WW DDES8DC6VV DDES914E DDES92369~9 DDES9246 DDES947Es DDES97CE!q! DDES9916/q/ DDES9A66VsV DDES9AAEWW DDES9D46 DDES9E1666 DDES9EE6 DDES9F0E>  DDESA106* DDESA33E DDESA35E(q( RS0A39Ef!  ? @VLBLBq+q+q+6Payne scoring6Conv to monthly6Balke data6Fettig et al Arial MT Arial MTH "2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2 Normal Undefined"2 Normal Undefined"2 Normal Undefined"2 Normal Undefined"2 Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefined"2Normal Undefinedq0* @@ U@@Y@ Y@@K@@@@@ @@.*@@@@T @@@ @ @@@ @@- @@@@9 *@ @@@" @@@@!@@33 @@ @-G @ @@@@G@ @ @ @@=@@@@Z@ @ @@@@ @@N@@@ @@@@@@;0@@@@@ ;@@@@@@@@N @@ @ @@@@@@ D@ @@@@ @@Q@@ @@@ @N@@ @@@@@@@^@@@@@@@@ @@ =@@@@ E@@@@@ @@ 1@@)@@@@@ =@@@@(@@@$'.@@@$E@@ @ @@ @@ P @@@@@ @@ ```````` ` ` ` ` ``````````````````` `S!@@@@@ @@ @@@ b"@@@ @ @@@ @@@@ z#@@@@@ @@@@@@@ @@@@@N$@@@@@ @@ @@X% @@@ @@@@@@@ E& @@@ @@@'@G'@@@@@Y(@@@@ @ @@@ @D)@@@@ @@@&J*@@@@@ @@ @Z+@@@ @@@@@@@Y, @@@@ @@@@@O-@ @@@ @@@@ U.@@@ @ @@@@^/@@@@@@@@@@h0@@@@@ @@ @ @@ @[1@@@@@@ @ G2@@@@@Q3@@@ @ @ @ @ @ U4@@@ @@@@@=5@@@ @'6@@@@%-7@@B@ @E8@ @@@@'@ @Q9@@@ @@ @E:@ @@@@@ @D;@@@@@@@@ @@F<@@@@ @@Y=@@ @@ @@ @@@<>@@ @@@<?@@@@@=@@@@@!`"`#`$`%`&`'`(`)`*`+`,`-`.`/`0`1`2`3`4`5`6`7`8`9`:`;`<`=`>`?`@`2A@@@@ (B@@;@1C@@@@@@@ QD@ @@@ @@ME@@@@@@@@@ 9F(@@@@@@@EG@ @ @ @@@@ LH@ @@ @ @@@@@@ <I@@@ @@(J'@ @@3K@@@ @@ 3L@@ @@&@@@@ ,M@@<@@ @ IN@@ @@@@!@@@(OI@@@LP@@@6@@@@@@@DQ@@!@@@@@ @XR@@@@@@@@@ @FS@@ @@,@@@@XT @@@@@@ @@@@ZU@@@ @ @@@ @GV@ @@@ @QW@@ @ @@ @OX @@@@&@@@@cY@ @@@@@@@@@cZ@@@@ @ @@@@@N[@@@@@@5@@@@q\@@@@@@@@@@@@@G] @@@@@Q^ @@@@@@G_ @@ @ @ @3`C@@@A`B`C`D`E`F`G`H`I`J`K`L`M`N`O`P`Q`R`S`T`U`V`W`X`Y`Z`[`\`]`^`_```=a @@ @ @Qb@@@ @ @ @Ac@@@@@@@@`d@@ @@@@@@@@@Ue@ @@@@@@@@@@)f@.@gW8h@%@@@[i@@@@@ @@=j'@@ @ @ 3k@@<@ @@Pl@@@ @@@@ Gm@@@@ @Zn@ @ @@@@@@ Yo @@ @@ @@@ @@ Qp@@@ @@ @bq @@ @@@@@@@@ dr@@@@ @@@@ @Qs@@@@@@@ @At@@@ @@@Gu'@ @@@@ Rv@@@@@@@@@@[w@@ @@@@@ex@@@ @@@@@ [y@@@@@@@ wz@@@@@@@@@ @@@ Z{@@@ @@@@ @@@ [|@@ @@@ @ @Z} @@@@@@@@G~@ @@@@-= @@@@F@ @@'@@ @< @@@@@a`b`c`d`e`f`h`i`j`k`l`m`n`o`p`q`r`s`t`u`v`w`x`y`z`{`|`}`~````F@ @@@@ @)@@'@@G@@@ @ @3@ @ @ =@ @@ @ F@ @@@@@ c@@@ @@@@ @ @@ 3,@@@ <@ @@@@ @@'@-@B)@@-Q@@ @@@@gWl````````````` ~'  @@ ` ~':@@E@@  @@L@@  @@@@@@E@@  @@ L @@  @@@@Q @@ @@@     L@@  @@@@I@@  @@@R@@  @@@@@@H@@  @@@L@@  @@@@ ! O"@@  @@@@@#H$@@  @@@%#&%K'@@  @@@@(!H)@@  @@@@H*@@  @@@@N+@@ @@,&L-@@  @@@@@.,/0(10I2@@  @@@3'K4@@  @@@@@@5.65718798H:@@  @@@@H;@@  @@@@<4=*I>@@  @@@N?@@  @@@@@@@@K@@@  @@@@@@A@KB@@  @@@@@@C6DHE@@  @@@@FDKG@@  @@@@@@H9IHJ@@  @@@@K/LFMLNCIO@@  @@@PHQPRMSNTSUTVUWQXOYWZV[Z\[]\^]_Y`_a`b^cbdcedHf@@  @@@Hg@@  @@@@Nh@@ @@iajekjlkHm@@  @@@@In@@  @@oipoqprsrtsutvuwvxwyxzy{z|{}|~}~  ~'p @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@            ! "!#"$#%$&%'&(')(*)+*,+-,.-/.0/102132435465768798:9;:<;=<>=?>@?A@BACBDCEDFEGFHGIHJIKJLKMLNMONPOQPRQSRTSUTVUWVXWYXZY[Z\[]\^]_^`_a`bacbdcedfegfhgihjikjlkmlnmonpoqprqsrtsutvuwvxwyxzy{z|{}|~}~@@          `` ~'Q'BBI#2b is the measure used in the NABE conference presentation and article.f'Legend: Parentheses mean no summary statement available; brackets include researcher's judgementc'BBI#1 attempts to isolate information on changes in growth, and exclude level of growth info.)'BBI#2 uses a 3-category scale only.5'BBI#2a is BBI#2 with half-points for "slightly"s'BBI#2b is BBI#2 with half-points for "expand" or "moderate expansion," but not for modest, slightly, or slow $'BBI#2c is #2a and #2b combinedV'Total issue score 'Boston'modifier(s) 'BBI#1 'BBI#2 'BBI#2a 'BBI#2b 'BBI#2c'New York 'modifier(s)  'BBI#1  'BBI#2  'BBI#2a  'BBI#2b 'BBI#2c'Philadelphia'modifier(s) 'BBI#1 'BBI#2 'BBI#2a 'BBI#2b 'BBI#2c'Cleveland'modifier(s) 'BBI#1 'BBI#2 'BBI#2a 'BBI#2b 'BBI#2c'Richmond'modifier(s) 'BBI#1  'BBI#2 !'BBI#2a "'BBI#2b #'BBI#2c $'Atlanta%'modifier(s) &'BBI#1 ''BBI#2 ('BBI#2a )'BBI#2b *'BBI#2c +'Chicago,'modifier(s) -'BBI#1 .'BBI#2 /'BBI#2a 0'BBI#2b 1'BBI#2c2'St. Louis3'modifier(s) 4'BBI#1 5'BBI#2 6'BBI#2a 7'BBI#2b 8'BBI#2c9'Minneapolis:'modifier(s) ;'BBI#1 <'BBI#2 ='BBI#2a >'BBI#2b ?'BBI#2c@'Kansas CityA'modifier(s) B'BBI#1 C'BBI#2 D'BBI#2a E'BBI#2b F'BBI#2c G'DallasH'modifier(s) I'BBI#1 J'BBI#2 K'BBI#2a L'BBI#2b M'BBI#2cSN'San Francisco (CA is 2/3 of district; mountain states incl AZ 13%; OR&WA 15%)O'modifier(s) P'BBI#1 Q'BBI#2 R'BBI#2a S'BBI#2b T'BBI#2c V'BBI#1 W'BBI#2 X'BBI#2a Y'BBI#2b Z'BBI#2c['BBI#2b integrated\'8-issue avg('20 reports lack summary statements''0 reports lack summary statements''6 reports lack summary statements('18 reports lack summary statements''6 reports lack summary statements'$'4 reports lack summary statements(+'11 reports lack summary statements(2'11 reports lack summary statements'9'7 reports lack summary statements'@'0 reports lack summary statements'G'0 reports lack summary statements'N'0 reports lack summary statements[ '6/29/83'(retail strong, mfg flat)'strong/flat'steady pace recovery 'recovery steady    'improvement in conditions'improvement'conds improve 'improve+'activity expanding, yet moderate pace'expanding moderately !"#<$'(consumer spending offers strong evidence of recovery)%'strong recovery&'()*+'looking up,'looking up-./01/2'(sales and production continue to expand)3'expansion45678(9'still on the mend (getting better):'on the mend;<=>?@'activity strengthensA'strengthenBCDEFG'recovery strengtheningH'strengtheningIJKLM"N'recovery is gaining momentumO'gaining momentumPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[(\(?[Y  '83:5'conditions improving'improving'recovery grew stronger 'recovery stronger    &'activity is spotty but improving'spotty/improvement'conditions improve 'improve'broad-based expansion'broad expansion !"#$'recovery gaining momentum%'gaining momentum&'()*#+'(disturbing signs in outlook),'disturbing signs-./012'expansion3'expansion456789'signs of upturn continue :'upturn;<=>?@'recovery quickeningA'quickeningBCDEFG'recovery strengtheningH'strengtheningIJKLMN'recovery gains momentumO'gaining momentumPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[' y?[Y  '83:6'conditions are looking up'looking up'uneven recovery 'uneven recovery    !'(mfg and retail are robust) 'robust'economy mild improvement'mild improvement&'expansion, effects are spreading'broad expansion !"#/$'pace of recovery showing signs of slowing %'slowing&'()* +'(NA),'?-./012'broad-based expansion3'broad expansion456789'recovery:'recovery;<=>?@'activity grows A'growthBCDEFG'economy cont recoveryH'recoveryIJKLM"N'recovery cont at slower pace O'slowerPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[f8πzs?[Y  '83:7, '(retail strong, more mfgs in recovery) 'strong, recovery      'activity improving 'improving      'economy expanding 'expand      '(retail, mfg up) 'up     " 'expansion across broad front 'broad expansion   ! " #! $'renewed strength of economy %'strength & ' ( ) *1 +'economic picture brightened in past 6 weeks ,'brightened - . / 0 1% 2'pace of expansion has moderated 3'moderated 4 5 6 7 8) 9'recovery no longer gaining momentum :'no momentum ; < = > ?0 @'further moderate improvement in conditions A'improvement B C D E F6 G'expansion broadening, but rate of growth slowing H'broadening/slowing I J K L M N'recovery cont strongly O'strong P Q R S TY V@      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W@      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X@     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y@     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z@     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & ['G?[ Y  '83:84 'recovery is gaining in strength and broadening 'gaining strength     ! 'pace of recovery picking up 'picking up      'mixed gains in economy 'mixed gains      'conditions improving 'improving     / 'little indic. of slowing pace of recovery 'ditto   ! " # $'economy cont to strengthen %'strength & ' ( ) * +'(NA) ,'? - . / 0 1 2'expansion cont  3'expansion 4 5 6 7 8 9'more moderate growth :'moderation ; < = > ? @'favorable econ conditions A'favorable B C D E F4 G'recovery continuing, some sectors strong gains H'recovery/strong gains I J K L M N'expansion cont O'expansion P Q R S TY V@      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W@      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X@     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y@     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z@     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & [>D~)0? [ Y  '84:1 '(successful Christmas) 'successful     5 'Improvement in economy is cont at moderate pace 'improvement      'Econ is off to good start 'good start     # 'Econ activity cont to improve 'improve     5 'activity is cont to expand across a broad front 'broad expansion   ! " # $'(retail best in 4 years) %'best & ' ( ) *; +'activity is on uptrend over a broadening # of sectors ,'uptrend - . / 0 1' 2'Upward momentum of expansion cont 3'upward momentum 4 5 6 7 8/ 9'strong holiday sales indicate cont growth :'strong/growth ; < = > ?K @'Activity cont to show moderate improvement following strong Christmas A'improvement B C D E F$ G'Recovery cont at moderate pace H'moderate recovery I J K L M" N'Expansion cont at rapid pace O'rapid P Q R S TY V@      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W@      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X@     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y@     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z@     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & [6.M? [ Y  '84:2 'Activity cont to expand 'expand     , 'Activity cont to expand at uneven pace 'expand uneven     + 'Economy has shown unexpected strength 'strength      'Growth less rapid 'less rapid     4 'Activity cont to expand at a fairly rapid pace 'rapid   ! " #, $'Healthy pace...no slowdown is apparent %'healthy & ' ( ) *# +'expansion has strong momentum ,'strong momentum - . / 0 1@ 2'activity has been showing substantial improvement recently 3'improvement 4 5 6 7 8 9'Recovery deepened :'recovery deepened ; < = > ? @'activity cont to improve A'improve B C D E F= G'recovery paused, though some sectors showed improvement H'pause/improvement I J K L M. N'recovery is cont with increased momentum O'increased momentum P Q R S TY V@      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W@      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X@     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y@     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z@     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & [Gl X? [ Y  '84:3 'Activity cont to expand 'expand     - 'Activity cont to expand in most sectors 'expand     " 'Steady growth in the economy 'steady growth      'Activity cont to increase 'increase     h 'Activity cont to increase, though there are some indications that the rate of expansion has slowed 'increase/slowed   ! " ## $'The pace of growth is slowing %'slowing & ' ( ) *L +'Business improvement continued, but the uptrend in retail sales slowed ,'improvement/slowed - . / 0 1? 2'Activity cont to expand, but the pace of expansion slowed 3'expansion/slowed 4 5 6 7 8> 9'(Auto sales show strength, labor market cont to improve) :'strength/improve ; < = > ?( @'Moderate improvement in conditions A'improvement B C D E F G'Recovery cont strong H'strong I J K L M$ N'Economy growing at slower rate O'slower P Q R S TY V      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W@      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X@     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y@     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z@     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & []$+s? [ Y  \@Y YQ '84:4'Expansion cont 'expand:'Pace of recovery stabilized- activity cont to expand 'stabilized/expand    `'Bus. environment is healthy, though some signs of a weakening in the expansion are evident'healthy/weakening 'Economy cont to strengthen'strengthen'Cont expansion'expansion !"#!$'Pace of growth cont to slow %'slowing&'()*Q+'Expansion cont, but pace of rise moderated significantly in the 2nd quarter,'moderated-./01*2'Expansion cont, but at a slower pace3'expansion/slowed45678$9'Favorable economic trends cont:'favorable;<=>?3@'Some apparent slowing in activity is reported A'slowingBCDEFG'Strong recovery cont. H'strongIJKLM"N'Growth of economy is slowing O'slowingPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY? ")07>ELSP YZ?#*18?FMTP &[?&@'Activity cont to grow moderatelyA'moderate growthBCDEFDG'Recovery cont strong, though there is some evidence of slowingH'strong/slowingIJKLM1N'Growth of the economy appears to be slowing O'slowingPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY? ")07>ELSP YZ?#*18?FMTP &[^3@?[Y \@YYQ '84:6'Activity remains robust 'robust1'Strong and stable growth, except for retail  'strong    -'Economy still growing, with some easing'growing/easing"'Growth appears to be slowing 'slowing?'Expansion is continuing, though at a somewhat slower rate'expand/slower !"#@$'Conds are mixed, but strengths cont to outweigh weaknesses&%'mixed/strength outweigh weakness&'()*+'Conds appear less robust,'less robust-./012'Expansion cont3'expansion456789'Moderate growth cont:'moderate growth;<=>?5@'Some further moderation in activity is apparentA'moderationBCDEFG'Recovery is slowing H'slowingIJKLM0N'Economy cont to grow, but at a slower rate O'slowerPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW?  '.5<CJQP YX !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[ F7?[Y \@ YYQ '84:7'Steady growth cont'steady growth='Activity grew moderately, but at a slightly slower pace& 'moderate growth, slightly slower    5'([Mixed] Mfg & housing down, but retail strong)'down/strong'Moderation of growth'moderation1'(special factors make evaluation difficult)'? !"#M$'Economy cont to progress in spite of nagging difficulties in some areas%'progress/difficulties&'()*+'Activity has plateaued,'plateaued-./01F2'(Spending brisk, but housing down, little change in other areas)3'brisk/little change456789'Modest growth cont:'modest growth;<=>?5@'Some moderation cont to be apparent in activityA'moderationBCDEF"G'Recovery cont at a slow paceH'slow recoveryIJKLM'N'Expansion has cooled dramatically O'cooledPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY? ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[3E?[Y \@ YYQ '84:8'Activity has slowed 'slowed&'Pace of activity has been uneven  'uneven    "'Mixed performance of economy 'mixed 'Economy is soft and uneven 'soft<'Are crosscurrents, but thrust of economy seems forward'forward/crosscurrents !"#:$'Strengths cont to outweigh weaknesses in the economy!%'strengths outweigh weakness&'()*++'Activity has been stable [i.e., flat] ,'stable-./01.2'(Slight reductions in employment levels)3'?45678*9'Conds have not changed much recently :'ditto;<=>?@'A lull in activity A'lullBCDEF3G'Expansion is sluggish across a broad spectrumH'sluggishIJKLMHN'Activity cont to slow from the vigorous levels earlier in the year O'slowingPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW  '.5<CJQP YX !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[V!:j?[Y \@ YYQ '85:1''Expansion appears to have resumed'expansion&'Activity advanced at uneven pace  'uneven    'Economy appears healthy 'healthyA'Economy shows signs of sluggishness with no clear direction'sluggishn'Economy is fundamentally strong, but a lull in industrial activity over the past month- retail is strong'strong/lull !"# $'Economy cont to strengthen%'strengthen&'()*!+'Activity flat trend is cont ,'flat-./012'(ret sales, autos strong) 3'strong45678(9'Economy has grown at a modest rate:'modest growth;<=>?#@'Modest improvement of economyA'modest improvementBCDEFG'Growth cont its slow paceH'slow growthIJKLMN'Recovery is contO'recoveryPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[bZkp#I?[Y \@ YYQ '85:2,'Activity is expanding at a modest rate'modest rate'Uneven expansion has cont  'uneven    -'(Mfg picked up speed, retail is strong)'picked up/strongB'Activity is reviving slowly after several months of weakness'reviving slowlyD'Activity is basically positive, but more mixed than previously'strong/mixed !"#$'Economy cont to expand %'expand&'()*+'Conflicting trends...,'conflicting-./012'(retail sales mixed) 3'mixed45678*9'Economy is showing signs of strength:'strength;<=>?-@'Economy cont to show modest improvementA'modest improvementBCDEFG'Economy is flat H'flatIJKLM%N'Modest, but steady, growth contO'modest growthPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[ ^@[Y \? YYQ '85:3'Activity has slowed 'slowed-'Activity cont to expand at erratic pace  'erratic    )'Major sectors are stable or growing'stable/growing%'Activity cont to improve slowly'slow improvement4'Activity appears to have regained its momentum'momentum !"#4$'Economy pushed ahead, though somewhat unevenly%'pushed ahead&'()*-+'Conds lag US, but are some bright spots,'?lag/bright spots-./01;2'Business activity is lower, but are some bright spots3'lower/bright45678O9'(Overall spending and employment up, but some signs of slower mfg growth):'overall up/slower mfg;<=>?@'Modest growth contA'modest growthBCDEFG'Growth remains slowH'slow growthIJKLMbN'Economy remains healthy, but are fewer signs of cont improvement, and some signs of weaknessO'healthy/weaknessPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ?#*18?FMTP &[Hc@[Y \?YYQ '85:42'Activity remains sluggish, especially in mfg'sluggish%'Activity in most sectors slowed  'slowing    'Conds are mixed 'mixed,'Pattern of activity has changed little 'ditto'Most areas and sectors are offering very upbeat reports. Activity is generally rising, and at record levels. But mfg is giving very negative signals'rising/negative !"#O$'Activity has begun to slow, but areas of strength outweigh weaker sectors(%'slowing/strength outweigh weakness&'()*%+'The sluggish overall trend cont,'sluggish-./01,2'Most indicators have declined recently3'declined45678'9'Mixed signals from key indicators :'mixed;<=>?%@'Activity is relatively sluggishA'sluggishBCDEFG'Expansion remains slowH'slow expansionIJKLMN'Econ cont to be healthy O'healthyPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW  '.5<CJQP YX !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[BE@[Y \?YYQ '85:5"'Conds have improved slightly'improved slightly!'Expansion cont to be uneven  'uneven    ,'Conds appear to have improved slightly'improved slightly9'Economy remains lackluster, with no signs of pickup'lacklusterb'Conds cont to reflect disparate performance on balance, activity is flat to rising slightly.'disparate !"#-$'Evidence of recent weakening in economy%'weakening&'()*+'Conds cont to be sluggish,'sluggish-./01J2'Indicators are mixed still, but is some improvement from last report3'mixed/improvement45678L9'(Consumer spending has slackened, employment improved, housing strong):'slackened/improved;<=>?@'Growth has been modestA'modest growthBCDEFHG'Growth remains slow, though signs of strengthening are discernableH'slow growth/strengtheningIJKLMZN'Economy cont to present a mixed picture. Consumer spending is strong, but weakening. O'mixedPQRSTYV? &-4;BIPP YW  '.5<CJQP YX? !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[clE@[Y \?YYQ '85:6E'(retail results are improving, but mfg remains in the doldrums)'improving/doldrums8'Most sectors are showing little growth in activity 'little growth    K'(mfg leveled off again, but retail and housing are at a better level)'leveled off/better('Economy cont to be soft and uneven 'softM'What [little] movement there has been in the economy is toward strength'slight strengthening !"#%$'Conds remain healthy on balance %'healthy&'()*1+'Neither a pickup or a weakening of activity ,'ditto-./0152'(Employment cont to lag behind national trends) 3'? (lag)45678W9'(Employment conds have weakened a bit, while some improvement in consumer demand):'weakened/improvement;<=>?@'Conds cont to be sluggishA'sluggishBCDEFG'Growth is sluggishH'sluggishIJKLM:N'Signals are mixed, but economy appears to be slowing O'slowingPQRSTYV? &-4;BIPP YW  '.5<CJQP YX? !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[כ?[Y \?YYQ '85:7'Conds have changed little'changed littleD'Some signs of a pickup in the economy appeared in recent weeks  'pickup    >'Conds are the same: mfg flat, housing and retail buoyant'flat/buoyantF'Economy remains weak overall, albeit with pockets of improvement'weak/improvement)'Economy is giving off mixed signals 'mixed !"#&$'Mixed performance of the economy %'mixed&'()*'+'(Activity cont to lag the nation) ,'?(lags)-./01H2'(Indicators suggest a slowing of activity during the 3rd quarter.) 3'slowing45678R9'Growth has steadied, with no indication of a significant advancement in pace:'steadied;<=>?$@'Activity is improving somewhatA'improvingBCDEFG'Economy remains sluggishH'sluggishIJKLM<N'Economy is generally healthy with some problem sectors O'generally healthy/problemsPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[փ@[Y \?YYQ '85:80'Economy appears to be in a holding pattern'holding pattern.'Economy has maintained its improved tone 'improved    "'Conds appear to be improving'improving 'Economy remains lackluster'lackluster#'Activity remains quite strong 'strong !"#$'Economy weakened somewhat%'weakened&'()*4+'Stable activity- no new vigor, no new setbacks ,'stable-./01?2'(In the 3rd quarter, employment grew and retail declined)3'grew/declined45678@9'(Employment growth has slowed, consumer spending declined):'slowed/declined;<=>?%@'Activity appears to be sluggishA'sluggishBCDEF,G'Evidence of overall expansion is scantH'scant expansionIJKLM(N'Economy cont on a slow growth pathO'slow growthPQRSTYV? &-4;BIPP YW?  '.5<CJQP YX? !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[փ@[Y \?YYQ '86:11'Economy held steady through the end of 1985'held steadyt'Almost all sectors experienced modest gains, but reports are mixed about strength of current business activity 'modest gains/mixed    #'Conds are generally improving'improving4'Economy growing slowly despite weakness in mfg'slow growth/weak!'Overall conds remain strong 'strong !"#$'The economy firmed up%'firmed up&'()*A+'(Autos strong, weak steel, consumer spending disappointing) ,'mixed-./01#2'Mixed outlook from indicators 3'mixed45678=9'Signs of strength were evident in economy at year's end:'strength;<=>?6@'Activity has improved slightly around year's endA'slightly improvedBCDEFG'Economy remains sluggishH'sluggishIJKLMON'Economy appears to be improving, although problems in some sectors remainO'improving/problemsPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[3@[Y \?YYQ '86:20'The pace of activity is unbalanced [mixed]'unbalanced (mixed)/'Economy improved somewhat in recent weeks 'improved    K'Economy is healthy, on the whole- mfg cont to improve, retail is good 'healthy'Economy cont to improve 'improve0'Activity remains on avg, moderately strong'moderately strong !"#c$'Activity in most sectors sustained the stronger pace that emerged around the turn of the year%'stronger&'()*&+'Moderate overall expansion conts,'moderate expansion-./01)2'Economy cont its moderate expansion3'moderate expansion45678-9'Conds have stabilized [not doing badly]:'stabilized;<=>?@'Activity has improvedA'improvedBCDEF&G'Economy conts its slow expansionH'slow expansionIJKLM.N'Economy conts to grow at a moderate paceO'moderate growthPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[G@[Y \?YYQ '86:3J'Expansion is unbalanced- mfg activity is slow, real estate is robust'unbalanced (mixed)!'Economy has cont to improve  'improve    6'Economy appears to be generally healthy in April 'healthyO'Economy cont to expand slowly, but significant sectors of weakness remain'slow expansion/weaknessB'Conds are reported to be stronger by most retailers and mfgs'stronger !"#$$'Important sectors strengthened%'strengthened&'()**+'Most contacts report improving conds,'improving-./01N2'Indicators of real activity were higher than national over recent months3'? higher4567819'Conds haven't changed much since year's end :'ditto;<=>?2@'Recent improvements are reported in activityA'improvementBCDEFTG'The decline in the price of oil has brought economic expansion to a standstillH'standstillIJKLM$N'Activity has shown improvementO'improvementPQRSTYV@ &-4;BIPP YW@  '.5<CJQP YX@ !(/6=DKRP YY@ ")07>ELSP YZ@#*18?FMTP &[h(D@[Y \@YYQ '86:4T'Imbalance conts, with mfgs experiencing no growth while other sectors expanded'unbalanced (mixed)B'Pace of expansion has varied among sectors since last report  'varied    Q'Conds are generally stable, with indications of improvement in some sectors'stable/improvement`'Economy conts its pattern of slow growth with weakness in mfg, energy, strength in housing'slow growth/weak'Generally strong economy 'strong !"#G$'Growth in economy has slowed down since the last reporting period%'slowed down&'()*)+'Expansion in activity is continuing,'expansion-./01Q2'Growth is slower than the rest of the nation, a reversal of the last report3'? slower45678.9'Conds appeared to have improved somewhat:'improved;<=>?2@'Some recent improvement in conds is reportedA'improvementBCDEFG'Economy is still reeling H'reelingIJKLMKN'Economy conts to be generally prosperous, though some problems remainO'prosperous/problemsPQRSTYV &-4;BIPP YW?  '.5<CJQP YX? !(/6=DKRP YY? ")07>ELSP YZ?#*18?FMTP &[$@[Y \@YYQ '86:5!'Activity remains unbalanced'unbalanced (mixed)5'In recent weeks, expansion varied among sectors  'varied    #'Conds are steady or improving'steady/improving.'Economy conts its pattern of slow growth'slow growth;'(slight increase in retail activity, but mfg is weak)'slight increase/weak !"#)$'Economy conts to mark time [steady]%'mark time&'()*2+'(Pace of activity conts short of the nation) ,'?(lags)-./01#2'Expansion is slowing slightly3'slowing slightly45678!9'Conds have not changed much:'no change;<=>?/@'Activity appears to be generally sluggishA'sluggishBCDEFJG'Economy is still in a slump, but the rate of decline is deceleratingH'less declineIJKLM!N'Economy is growing modestlyO'modest growthPQRSTYV? &-4;BIPP YW?  '.5<CJQP YX !(/6=DKRP YY ")07>ELSP YZ#*18?FMTP &[$@[Y \@YYQ '86:6= 'Pace of activity remains sluggish, no signs of a pickup 'sluggish     A 'Economy registered modest improvement since the last report 'modest improvement     t 'Conds are improving somewhat, though there are some signs that the consumer sector may be backing off slightly 'improving/backing off      'Uneven but slow growth 'slow growth      'Sluggish, slow growth 'sluggish/slow growth   ! " # $'Pace of activity slackened %'slackened & ' ( ) *M +'No evidence of drop-off or acceleration in the pace of overall activity ,'ditto - . / 0 1 2'Conds remain sluggish 3'sluggish 4 5 6 7 8 9'Conds held steady :'held steady ; < = > ?) @'Activity remains generally sluggish A'sluggish B C D E F, G'Rate of decline in activity has slowed H'less decline I J K L M- N'Economy cont to present a mixed picture O'mixed P Q R S TY V?      & - 4 ; B I PP Y W      ' . 5 < C J QP Y X     ! ( / 6 = D K RP Y Y     " ) 0 7 > E L SP Y Z     # * 1 8 ? F M TP & [B Z2 @[ Y  \@Y YQ !'86:7!'[same as previous] !'ditto!!!!!'!'Economy showed modest improvement! 'modest improvement! ! ! ! !3!'Economy cont to expand at about the same pace !'ditto!!!!!(!'Economy remained relatively stable !'stable!!!!!#!'(Mfg and retail are stronger)!'stronger!! !!!"!#=!$'Mixed performance of economy: weakness offset strengths !%'mixed!&!'!(!)!* !+'(Activity still trails US) !,'?(lags)!-!.!/!0!1!2'Conds have improved!3'improved!4!5!6!7!8Z!9'Economy appears poised for improvement: labor markets tightened, consumer and mfg up!:'improvement!;!<!=!>!?@!@'Little change from the recent pattern of sluggish activity!A'sluggish!B!C!D!E!FY!G'Economy has stabilized, but weakness in energy and construction is hampering growth!H'stabilized/hampering!I!J!K!L!M-!N'Economy appears to be improving overall!O'improving!P!Q!R!S!TY!V@!! !!!!&!-!4!;!B!I!PP Y!W@!! !!! !'!.!5!<!C!J!QP Y!X@!! !!!!!(!/!6!=!D!K!RP Y!Y@!! !!!"!)!0!7!>!E!L!SP Y!Z@!!!!!#!*!1!8!?!F!M!TP &![HL@ [!Y !\@Y!YQ "'86:8"'Activity remains sluggish"'sluggish""""""'Modest uptrend cont" 'modest uptrend" " " " ""'Conds are generally good "'good"""""'"'Economy showed slight improvement"'slight improvement""""":"'(mfg same level, retail stronger, housing weakening)"'same/stronger"" "!"""#"$'Activity remains mixed "%'mixed"&"'"(")"*)"+'(Pace of activity cont to trail US) ",'?(lags)"-"."/"0"1X"2'(Expansion of employment and construction exceeded nation's, while retail trailed)"3'expansion/trailed"4"5"6"7"8*"9'Moderate growth appears to have cont":'moderate growth";"<"=">"?5"@'Only modest improvement in activity is apparent"A'modest improvement"B"C"D"E"F"G'Economy is flat "H'flat"I"J"K"L"M2"N'Overall improvement in economy is continuing"O'improvement"P"Q"R"S"TY"V@"" """"&"-"4";"B"I"PP Y"W@"" """ "'"."5"<"C"J"QP Y"X@"" """!"("/"6"="D"K"RP Y"Y@"" """"")"0"7">"E"L"SP Y"Z@"""""#"*"1"8"?"F"M"TP &"[6vN@!["Y "\@Y"YQ #'87:1#'(retail strong, mfg flat)#'strong/flat#####A#'Conds in most sectors of the economy are stable-to-improved# 'stable/improved# # # # #O#'Economy appears healthy, even though growth in several sectors has slowed#'healthy/slowed#####)#'Indicators show a moderate increase#'moderate increase#####-#'(mfg has resumed its rise, retail weak)#'rise/weak## #!#"##$#$'Growth cont at a moderate pace#%'moderate growth#&#'#(#)#* #+'Activity has been sluggish#,'sluggish#-#.#/#0#11#2'(mfg upturn, but sluggish employment gains)#3'upturn/sluggish#4#5#6#7#8%#9'Growth may have picked up a bit#:'picked up#;#<#=#>#?'#@'Activity cont to improve modestly#A'modest improvement#B#C#D#E#FZ#G'Economy has begun a modest recovery, but overall activity level is below a year ago.#H'modest recovery#I#J#K#L#M#N'Continued moderate growth#O'moderate growth#P#Q#R#S#TY#V@## ####&#-#4#;#B#I#PP Y#W@## ### #'#.#5#<#C#J#QP Y#X@## ###!#(#/#6#=#D#K#RP Y#Y@## ###"#)#0#7#>#E#L#SP Y#Z@#######*#1#8#?#F#M#TP &#[ p1<@"[#Y #\@Y#YQ $'87:2>$'This month's reports were the most positive in some time$'most positive$$$$$+$'Economy showed some gains in activity $ 'gains$ $ $ $ $)$'Economy is on an even keel [steady]$'even keel$$$$$0$'Economy cont a slow and unsteady expansion$'slow expansion$$$$$$$'(mfg activity increased again)$'increased$$ $!$"$#$$'Activity has picked up$%'picked up$&$'$($)$*'$+'Activity boosted by a mild winter $,'boosted$-$.$/$0$19$2'(Expansion of employment slowed in the 4th quarter)$3'?$4$5$6$7$8 $9'Conds have remained steady $:'steady$;$<$=$>$?!$@'Activity slight improvement$A'slight improvement$B$C$D$E$F:$G'Some sectors weak, but signs of recovery are evident$H'recovery/weak$I$J$K$L$M($N'Economy presents an uneven picture $O'uneven$P$Q$R$S$TY$V@$$ $$$$&$-$4$;$B$I$PP Y$W@$$ $$$ $'$.$5$<$C$J$QP Y$X@$$ $$$!$($/$6$=$D$K$RP Y$Y@$$ $$$"$)$0$7$>$E$L$SP Y$Z@$$$$$#$*$1$8$?$F$M$TP &$[Of@#[$Y $\@Y$YQ %'87:3"%'Economy cont to perform well%'perform well%%%%%+%'Economy registered modest improvement% 'modest improvement% % % % %/%'Most sectors are making only modest gains%'modest gains%%%%%#%'Economy cont to expand slowly%'slow expansion%%%%%*%'Activity increased in the past month%'increased%% %!%"%#-%$'Econ indicators show signs of expansion%%'expansion%&%'%(%)%*4%+'Reports on activity indicate further expansion%,'expansion%-%.%/%0%1&%2'Activity cont at a moderate pace%3'moderate expansion%4%5%6%7%8%9'Economy improved slightly%:'slight improvement%;%<%=%>%?&%@'Activity only slight improvement%A'slight improvement%B%C%D%E%F`%G'Economy remains sluggish, but some important sectors are showing signs of renewed strength%H'sluggish/strength%I%J%K%L%M*%N'Most developments have been positive%O'positive%P%Q%R%S%TY%V@%% %%%%&%-%4%;%B%I%PP Y%W@%% %%% %'%.%5%<%C%J%QP Y%X@%% %%%!%(%/%6%=%D%K%RP Y%Y@%% %%%"%)%0%7%>%E%L%SP Y%Z@%%%%%#%*%1%8%?%F%M%TP &%[Ի@$[%Y %\@Y%YQ &'87:4&&'Activity remains at a high level&'high level&&&&&$&'Modest uptrend in economy cont& 'modest uptrend& & & & &0&'Moderate growth characterizes most sectors&'moderate growth&&&&&)&'Economy cont to show positive signs&'positive&&&&&&'Growth is slowing &'slowing&& &!&"&#+&$'(Employment is increasing moderately)&%'increasing moderately&&&'&(&)&*C&+'Activity cont to expand at a stronger pace than in 1985 or 86&,'stronger&-&.&/&0&1&2'Economy slowed &3'slowed&4&5&6&7&8.&9'Economy showed signs of cont improvement&:'improvement&;&<&=&>&?9&@'Little change in activity [sluggish or up slightly] &A'ditto&B&C&D&E&F&G'Economy remains weak &H'weak&I&J&K&L&M&N'Conds are healthy &O'healthy&P&Q&R&S&TY&V?&& &&&&&&-&4&;&B&I&PP Y&W@&& &&& &'&.&5&<&C&J&QP Y&X@&& &&&!&(&/&6&=&D&K&RP Y&Y@&& &&&"&)&0&7&>&E&L&SP Y&Z@&&&&&#&*&1&8&?&F&M&TP &&[O&9@%[&Y &\@Y&YQ ''87:50''Pace of activity picked up in early summer''picked up'''''2''Business conds cont to be stable or improved' 'stable/improved' ' ' ' ')''Activity growing at a moderate pace''moderate growth'''''G''Activity growing at a very conservative pace- same as last report''slow growth'''''0''Conds not changed much- generally positive''positive'' '!'"'#<'$'Signs of moderate strengthening in a number of sectors'%'moderate strengthening'&'''(')'*'+'Activity cont to expand ','expand'-'.'/'0'1'2'Economy cont to weaken '3'weaken'4'5'6'7'8-'9'Economy has cont to improve this summer ':'improve';'<'='>'?)'@'Activity is cont at a sluggish pace'A'sluggish'B'C'D'E'FT'G'Economy remains weak overall, but several important sectors are showing growth'H'weak/growth'I'J'K'L'M'N'Economy healthy 'O'healthy'P'Q'R'S'TY'V@'' ''''&'-'4';'B'I'PP Y'W@'' ''' '''.'5'<'C'J'QP Y'X@'' '''!'('/'6'='D'K'RP Y'Y@'' '''"')'0'7'>'E'L'SP Y'Z@'''''#'*'1'8'?'F'M'TP &'[V{@&['Y '\@ Y'YQ ('87:6('Economy cont to improve ('improve(((((.('Business conds improved somewhat further( 'improved( ( ( ( (/('Economy shows signs of moderate expansion('moderate expansion(((((('Activity slowed slightly('slight slowing((((($('Economy cont to expand, mostly ('expand(( (!("(#$($'Pace of activity remains brisk (%'brisk(&('((()(*(+'Activity cont to rise (,'rise(-(.(/(0(1(2'Economy weakened (3'weaken(4(5(6(7(8(9'Growth cont apace (:'growth(;(<(=(>(?0(@'Modest improvement is apparent in activity(A'modest improvement(B(C(D(E(F$(G'Economy is growing very slowly(H'slow growth(I(J(K(L(M%(N'Activity cont at a healthy pace (O'healthy(P(Q(R(S(TY(V(( ((((&(-(4(;(B(I(PP Y(W@(( ((( ('(.(5(<(C(J(QP Y(X@(( (((!(((/(6(=(D(K(RP Y(Y@(( ((("()(0(7(>(E(L(SP Y(Z@(((((#(*(1(8(?(F(M(TP &([!;J@'[(Y (\@!Y(YQ )'87:7')'Activity appears to be picking up)'picking up)))))e)'Economy registered some improvement- sizable increase in # of firms reporting better bus. conds) 'improved) ) ) ) )&)'Bus conds are improving modestly)'modest improvement))))))'Economy has picked up)'picked up)))))*)'Growth remains the predominant trend )'growth)) )!)")#2)$'(Employment cont to expand, retail is mixed))%'expand/mixed)&)')()))*)+'Activity cont to expand ),'expand)-).)/)0)11)2'Activity has been uneven and generally weak )3'weaken)4)5)6)7)8))9'Recent news has been quite positive):'positive);)<)=)>)?Q)@'Activity is mixed, with sluggishness in retail and housing, strength in mfg )A'mixed)B)C)D)E)F!)G'Economy cont to grow slowly)H'slow growth)I)J)K)L)M))N'Conds generally cont to be positive)O'positive)P)Q)R)S)TY)V@)) ))))&)-)4);)B)I)PP Y)W@)) ))) )').)5)<)C)J)QP Y)X@)) )))!)()/)6)=)D)K)RP Y)Y@)) )))")))0)7)>)E)L)SP Y)Z@)))))#)*)1)8)?)F)M)TP &)['@([)Y )\@"Y)YQ *'87:8!*'(strong 3rd quarter in mfg) *'strong*****1*'General bus conds improved somewhat further* 'improved* * * * *,*'Signs of moderate expansion in economy*'moderate expansion******'Activity remains strong *'strong*****=*'Activity rose in some sectors and stayed even in others*'rose/stayed even** *!*"*#%*$'Economy shows mixed performance *%'mixed*&*'*(*)**@*+'Activity cont to expand with few signs of negative effects *,'expand*-*.*/*0*1*2'Economy improved slightly*3'slightly improved*4*5*6*7*8F*9'(retail flat, labor markets tight) [slow growth at a high level]*:'slow growth/high level*;*<*=*>*?0*@'cont slight improvement evident in economy*A'slight improvement*B*C*D*E*F!*G'Economy cont to grow slowly*H'slow growth*I*J*K*L*M+*N'Economy cont to exhibit steady growth*O'steady growth*P*Q*R*S*TY*V?** ****&*-*4*;*B*I*PP Y*W@** *** *'*.*5*<*C*J*QP Y*X@** ***!*(*/*6*=*D*K*RP Y*Y@** ***"*)*0*7*>*E*L*SP Y*Z@*****#***1*8*?*F*M*TP &*[>t@@)[*Y *\@#Y*YQ +'88:1+'Satisfactory growth+'satisfactory+++++Z+'Developments varied among sectors: consumer spending strong, business activity mixed+ 'strong/mixed+ + + + +"+'Mixed signals in the economy +'mixed++++++'(mfg rebound cont) +'rebound+++++*+'Economy expanded further, was robust +'robust++ +!+"+##+$'Economy is healthy on balance +%'healthy+&+'+(+)+*++'Activity expanding +,'expand+-+.+/+0+1/+2'Economy cont to expand at a moderate pace+3'moderate expansion+4+5+6+7+8+9'Conds positive+:'positive+;+<+=+>+?,+@'Little improvement apparent in economy+A'no improvement+B+C+D+E+F'+G'Expansion cont, but some weakness+H'expand/weakness+I+J+K+L+M1+N'Economy cont to exhibit good health overall+O'good health+P+Q+R+S+TY+V++ ++++&+-+4+;+B+I+PP Y+W@++ +++ +'+.+5+<+C+J+QP Y+X@++ +++!+(+/+6+=+D+K+RP Y+Y@++ +++"+)+0+7+>+E+L+SP Y+Z@+++++#+*+1+8+?+F+M+TP &+[d(@*[+Y +\@$Y+YQ ,'88:2n,'Reports quite mixed: retail disappointing while mfgs reported improvement. Recent pickup in real estate. ,'mixed,,,,,,'Activity cont mixed , 'mixed, , , , ,),'Economy making only modest progress,'modest progress,,,,,:,'Little change from previous report: conds optimistic ,'ditto,,,,,,'Activity expanded,'expanded,, ,!,",#-,$'Activity has maintained a moderate pace,%'moderate pace,&,',(,),* ,+'Expansion in activity cont ,,'expand,-,.,/,0,1',2'Economy cont to expand moderately,3'moderate expansion,4,5,6,7,8,9'Economy held firm,:'held firm,;,<,=,>,?;,@'Economy mixed performance, slight improvement overall,A'slight improvement,B,C,D,E,F',G'Economy cont to grow at mild pace,H'mild growth,I,J,K,L,M,N'Cont moderate growth,O'moderate growth,P,Q,R,S,TY,V,, ,,,,&,-,4,;,B,I,PP Y,W@,, ,,, ,',.,5,<,C,J,QP Y,X@,, ,,,!,(,/,6,=,D,K,RP Y,Y@,, ,,,",),0,7,>,E,L,SP Y,Z@,,,,,#,*,1,8,?,F,M,TP &,[* k#@+[,Y ,\@%Y,YQ -'88:37-'Firms satisfied with recent performance: sales up-'satisfactory-----'-'General conds improved moderately- 'improved moderately- - - - -(-'Economy growing at a moderate pace-'moderate growth------'Conds cont to be positive-'positive------'Economy made modest gains-'modest gains-- -!-"-#%-$'Economy shows moderate strength-%'moderate strength-&-'-(-)-*-+'Activity cont to expand -,'expand---.-/-0-1%-2'Economy cont to grow moderately-3'grow moderately-4-5-6-7-8 -9'Economy strengthened a bit-:'strengthened-;-<-=->-?--@'Economy cont to show slight improvement-A'slight improvement-B-C-D-E-F!-G'Economy recovering modestly-H'modest recovery-I-J-K-L-M?-N'Economy cont to grow at healthy pace, conds have improved-O'healthy/improved-P-Q-R-S-TY-V@-- ----&---4-;-B-I-PP Y-W@-- --- -'-.-5-<-C-J-QP Y-X@-- ---!-(-/-6-=-D-K-RP Y-Y@-- ---"-)-0-7->-E-L-SP Y-Z@-----#-*-1-8-?-F-M-TP &-[(Jޖuh@,[-Y -\@&Y-YQ .'88:43.'(mfg is strong, retail slowed due to weather) .'strong.....6.'Conds are stable-to-improved, retail is sluggish. 'stable/improved. . . . .@.'Economy cont to grow, some softness in the consumer sector.'grow/softness.....2.'Activity is same as last report [high level].'high level......'Economy cont to grow .'grow.. .!.".#1.$'Growth has slowed a bit, level still strong.%'slowed/strong.&.'.(.).*.+'Expansion is cont .,'expand.-.../.0.17.2'Economy is slightly weaker than in recent reports.3'slightly weaker.4.5.6.7.8!.9'Trends cont to be favorable.:'favorable.;.<.=.>.?'.@'Economy cont to make modest gains.A'modest gains.B.C.D.E.F7.G'Signs of increasing sluggishness in the expansion.H'more sluggish.I.J.K.L.MB.N'Economy cont to expand, though the pace of growth is slowing.O'expanded/slowing.P.Q.R.S.TY.V.. ....&.-.4.;.B.I.PP Y.W@.. ... .'...5.<.C.J.QP Y.X@.. ...!.(./.6.=.D.K.RP Y.Y@.. ...".).0.7.>.E.L.SP Y.Z@.....#.*.1.8.?.F.M.TP &.[9UQC@-[.Y .\@'Y.YQ /'88:54/'[retail fair to OK, mfg good 1st half of year]/'fair/good/////#/'Expansion has slowed somewhat / 'slowed/ / / / /./'Econ cont on moderate expansionary trend/'moderate expansion//////'Economy cont to grow /'growth/////2/'Economy cont to expand, but at a slower pace/'slower/expand// /!/"/#,/$'Economy showed signs of moderate gains/%'moderate gains/&/'/(/)/*./+'Reports on activity showed cont strength/,'strength/-/.///0/1/2'Sluggish growth/3'sluggish/4/5/6/7/8/9'Conds have held firm/:'held firm/;/</=/>/?"/@'Economy is slightly improved/A'slight improvement/B/C/D/E/F/G'Economy remains sluggish/H'sluggish/I/J/K/L/M,/N'Economy cont to expand at healthy pace/O'healthy expansion/P/Q/R/S/TY/V// ////&/-/4/;/B/I/PP Y/W@// /// /'/./5/</C/J/QP Y/X@// ///!/(///6/=/D/K/RP Y/Y@// ///"/)/0/7/>/E/L/SP Y/Z@/////#/*/1/8/?/F/M/TP &/[ "U@.[/Y /\@(Y/YQ 0'88:6)0'(retail cont lackluster, mfg mixed)0'lackluster/mixed00000:0'Economy is on a modest uptrend since the last report0 'modest uptrend0 0 0 0 0/0'Economy is still on an expansionary trend0'expanding00000(0'Economy cont its healthy expansion 0'healthy00000$0'Conds are somewhat less robust0'less robust00 0!0"0#'0$'Cont spotty expansion- mfg strong0%'spotty/strong0&0'0(0)0*F0+'Solid expansion, though less rapid rate than in 1st half of year0,'solid/less rapid0-0.0/000102'Economy cont to weaken 03'weaken040506070809'Conds remain stable 0:'stable0;0<0=0>0?>0@'Activity is mixed- mfg strong, housing & retail sluggish0A'strong/sluggish0B0C0D0E0F!0G'Economy cont to grow slowly0H'slow growth0I0J0K0L0M60N'Economy cont to grow, concern about some sectors 0O'growth0P0Q0R0S0TY0V00 0000&0-040;0B0I0PP Y0W@00 000 0'0.050<0C0J0QP Y0X@00 000!0(0/060=0D0K0RP Y0Y@00 000"0)00070>0E0L0SP Y0Z@00000#0*01080?0F0M0TP &0[ f@/[0Y 0\@)Y0YQ 1'88:7\1'One-third of mfg report softer demand since last report. Retail short of expectations.1'one-third softer1111121'Economy is healthy- further modest expansion1 'healthy/modest expansion1 1 1 1 11'Moderate expansion1'moderate expansion11111'1'Conds are little changed [strong] 1'strong111111'Growth slowed further 1'slowed11 1!1"1#-1$'Economy cont its somewhat sluggish pace1%'sluggish1&1'1(1)1*1+'Activity cont to rise 1,'rise1-1.1/101112'Conds remain sluggish13'sluggish1415161718219'Conds remained stable at satisfactory levels1:'stable/satisfactory level1;1<1=1>1?1@'Pace of activity is slow 1A'slow 1B1C1D1E1F21G'Economy is sluggish, but with positive signs1H'sluggish/positive1I1J1K1L1M+1N'Economy cont to grow, Calif is strong 1O'strong1P1Q1R1S1TY1V11 1111&1-141;1B1I1PP Y1W@11 111 1'1.151<1C1J1QP Y1X@11 111!1(1/161=1D1K1RP Y1Y@11 111"1)10171>1E1L1SP Y1Z?11111#1*11181?1F1M1TP &1[##n@0[1Y 1\@*Y1YQ 2'88:8`2'Sentiment is a little more positive than in recent months, though actual results are mixed 2'mixed2222202'Rate of expansion may have slowed somewhat 2 'slowed2 2 2 2 2!2'Cont growth in most sectors 2'growth222222'Economy cont to expand 2'expand222222'Activity varied by sector 2'varied22 2!2"2##2$'Strength of current expansion2%'strength2&2'2(2)2*82+'Activity cont to expand, though at less rapid rate2,'expand/less rapid2-2.2/2021122'Weakness has cont in sectors of the economy23'weakness242526272829'Conds are good 2:'good2;2<2=2>2?.2@'Pace of activity remains relatively slow 2A'slow2B2C2D2E2F(2G'Economy cont to perform sluggishly2H'sluggish2I2J2K2L2M$2N'Economy to post healthy growth2O'healthy growth2P2Q2R2S2TY2V?22 2222&2-242;2B2I2PP Y2W@22 222 2'2.252<2C2J2QP Y2X@22 222!2(2/262=2D2K2RP Y2Y?22 222"2)20272>2E2L2SP Y2Z?22222#2*21282?2F2M2TP &2[.bNƞ@1[2Y 2\@+Y2YQ 3'89:123'Activity cont at a moderate but healthy pace 3'healthy333333'Developments have varied 3 'varied3 3 3 3 3@3'Economy cont to expand, but are signs of a slackening pace3'growth/slackening33333 3'Cont gains in most sectors 3'gains33333+3'Economy cont to grow at moderate pace3'moderate growth33 3!3"3#"3$'Economy cont to perform well3%'perform well3&3'3(3)3*3+'Activity cont to expand 3,'expand3-3.3/3031132'Conds improved, but growth remains sluggish33'improved/sluggish343536373839'Conds are fairly good3:'fairly good3;3<3=3>3?!3@'Economy cont to grow slowly3A'slow growth3B3C3D3E3F$3G'District is growing moderately3H'moderate growth3I3J3K3L3M#3N'Economy cont to show strength3O'strength3P3Q3R3S3TY3V?33 3333&3-343;3B3I3PP Y3W@33 333 3'3.353<3C3J3QP Y3X@33 333!3(3/363=3D3K3RP Y3Y@33 333"3)30373>3E3L3SP Y3Z@33333#3*31383?3F3M3TP &3[2@@2[3Y 3\@,Y3YQ 4'89:2"4'(good retail and mfg growth) 4'good44444$4'Reports are generally positive4 'positive4 4 4 4 4;4'Indications from sectors suggest very moderate growth4'very moderate growth4444404'(stronger than expected consumer spending)4'stronger44444'4'Economy expanded at moderate pace4'moderate expand44 4!4"4#24$'Activity expanded at moderately healthy pace4%'expanded moderately4&4'4(4)4*4+'Activity cont to increase4,'increase4-4.4/4041J42'Economy expanded moderately following several quarters of stagnation43'expand moderately444546474849'Conds are fairly good4:'fairly good4;4<4=4>4?%4@'Slow growth in the economy cont4A'slow growth4B4C4D4E4F!4G'Economy is expanding slowly4H'slow expansion4I4J4K4L4M(4N'Healthy conds, pace is not slowing 4O'healthy4P4Q4R4S4TY4V@44 4444&4-444;4B4I4PP Y4W@44 444 4'4.454<4C4J4QP Y4X@44 444!4(4/464=4D4K4RP Y4Y@44 444"4)40474>4E4L4SP Y4Z@44444#4*41484?4F4M4TP &4['p(Ѳ@3[4Y 4\@-Y4YQ 5'89:3$5'Business took on a softer tone 5'softer5555575'Pattern of developments are mixed-retail sluggish 5 'mixed5 5 5 5 5#5'Reports suggest little growth5'little growth55555*5'Economy shows mixed signs of slowing5'slowing/mixed55555%5'Signs of slower growth apparent5'slower growth55 5!5"5#'5$'Moderately healthy pace of growth5%'moderately healthy growth5&5'5(5)5*5+'Less rapid growth5,'less rapid5-5.5/5051752'Most sectors improved, but many signs of weakness53'improved/weakness545556575859'Conds are generally good5:'generally good5;5<5=5>5?!5@'Economy cont to grow slowly5A'slow growth5B5C5D5E5F!5G'Economy is growing modestly5H'modest growth5I5J5K5L5MF5N'Economy is healthy, though are signs of slowing in some sectors.5O'healthy/slowing5P5Q5R5S5TY5V55 5555&5-545;5B5I5PP Y5W55 555 5'5.555<5C5J5QP Y5X55 555!5(5/565=5D5K5RP Y5Y55 555"5)50575>5E5L5SP Y5Z55555#5*51585?5F5M5TP &5[;7Mˮ@4[5Y 5\@.Y5YQ 6'89:46'Activity is soft 6'soft666666'Mixed developments 6 'mixed6 6 6 6 66'Little or no growth6'little/no growth666666'(pace of mfg is slowing) 6'slowing66666+6'Economy showed signs of slower growth6'slower growth66 6!6"6#6$'Activity cont to grow 6%'growth6&6'6(6)6*76+'Mixed signals from indicators of overall activity 6,'mixed6-6.6/6061"62'(employment growth declined)63'declined646566676869'Conds are generally good6:'generally good6;6<6=6>6?6@'Pace of activity is slow 6A'slow6B6C6D6E6F-6G'Economy cont to expand at a modest pace6H'modest expansion6I6J6K6L6MX6N'Pace of growth cont to be healthy, but mixed signals about possibly slowing growth6O'healthy/slowing/mixed6P6Q6R6S6TY6V66 6666&6-646;6B6I6PP Y6W66 666 6'6.656<6C6J6QP Y6X66 666!6(6/666=6D6K6RP Y6Y66 666"6)60676>6E6L6SP Y6Z66666#6*61686?6F6M6TP &6[sтGm@5[6Y 6\@/Y6YQ 7'89:5A7'(pace slowed in mfg, retail is weak and below expectations)7'slowed/weak777777'Developments are mixed 7 'mixed7 7 7 7 77'Activity is easing 7'easing7777777'Softening in some industrial markets is occurring7'softening777777'Growth softened further7'softened77 7!7"7#_7$'Reports of slowdown. Activity cont to expand, but areas of softness have become apparent.7%'slowdown7&7'7(7)7*7+'Slower growth 7,'slower7-7.7/707172'Decline in growth 73'decline7475767778I79'Conds are mixed: consumer spending strong, housing weak, autos flat 7:'mixed7;7<7=7>7?%7@'Economy cont to grow moderately7A'moderate growth7B7C7D7E7F)7G'Economy is expanding at modest pace7H'modest expansion7I7J7K7L7M27N'Conds are healthy, but pace of growth slowed7O'healthy/slowing7P7Q7R7S7TY7V77 7777&7-747;7B7I7PP Y7W77 777 7'7.757<7C7J7QP Y7X77 777!7(7/767=7D7K7R